Joining Foord in TenCent – and aware of the “unknown, unknowns”
By Alec Hogg
Enjoyed a stimulating few hours yesterday at the annual Morningstar Conference in Cape Town. Topped by listening to two low-profile doyens of the money management business, Dave Foord (Foord AM) and Sandy McGregor (Allan Gray).
Foord has spent the last 33 years building his successful business by keeping a tight team, focusing on the investment basics and educating himself by reading and travelling widely. When pressed, he shared that right now, he sees the best value worldwide in Hong Kong-listed companies that operate in China – including internet business TenCent, which is responsible for Naspers's meteoric rise.
On the other hand, McGregor is cautious about the global outlook, especially because levels of volatility are so low. A devoted student of economic history, the Allan Gray veteran frets about what he calls "unknown unknowns" – risks to markets we don't even know exist—the Black Swans, which Nassim Taleb warned about so timeously ahead of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
The overall message from these two and most other presenters is that risk is growing. A reverse could come from anywhere at any time. The best play? Keep a highly diversified portfolio spread across asset classes and geographies.
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