Navigating global markets in 2026: Building a resilient portfolio in an uncertain world
Brian Butchart*
If the past few years have felt unpredictable, you’re not imagining it.
As we consider expectations for the year ahead, the world’s largest asset managers agree on one thing: markets are still offering opportunity—but they demand more patience, discipline, and flexibility than before.
This isn’t a story about an impending crash or a runaway boom. It’s a story about navigating a world that keeps changing shape.
Here’s what investors should know.
The big picture: Growth is still here – but it is uneven
Global growth hasn’t disappeared. Economies are expanding, companies are still earning money, and innovation continues to drive progress.
But the pace is uneven:
The U.S. is pricey, but remains relatively strong
Europe is stabilizing but slower
Emerging markets are cheaper and gaining attention for long-term growth.
Interest rates are set to decline which will be positive for risk assets; however, inflation has cooled but hasn’t vanished, meaning markets may feel more sensitive to economic surprises.
Bottom line: 2026 likely won’t feel “easy,” but it doesn’t need to feel alarming either.
Why markets may feel more fragile
Even if markets perform reasonably well, several risks are quietly building:
• Concentration risk: A small group of large technology and AI-related companies drive a big share of returns. When they do well, portfolios shine—but if expectations shift, volatility can spike.
• Inflation uncertainty: Prices may rise again if wages, energy costs, or supply chains come under pressure.
• Politics and geopolitics: Trade policy, elections, and global tensions now move markets as much as economic data does.
These risks don’t guarantee losses—but they provide valid reasons for staying diversified and realistic.
Where investors are finding opportunity
Despite the challenges, asset managers aren’t pessimistic. In fact, they see some compelling themes shaping the years ahead.
Artificial intelligence
AI is moving beyond hype into real-world productivity gains across industries. While valuations matter, the long-term economic impact remains significant.
Private markets and alternatives
Large investors are increasingly turning to private credit, private equity, and infrastructure for diversification and income—especially when public markets swing.
Infrastructure and the real economy
From data centres and power grids to renewable energy, the world needs massive investment just to keep running.
Emerging markets
Younger populations and rising consumption make parts of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East attractive for long-term growth.
What this means for everyday investors
The message from global asset managers is clear:
2026 is not about chasing the hottest trend.
It is about building resilient portfolios.
That means:
Diversifying beyond a handful of popular stocks
Balancing growth with income
Staying invested, but not complacent
Accepting that volatility is part of the journey
Active decision-making—rebalancing, reviewing risk, and staying flexible—matters more than it did in the era of “invest and forget.”
What investors are expecting in 2026
Across surveys and outlooks, expectations are shifting:
More volatility, fewer straight lines
Moderate, not explosive, returns
Greater focus on risk management
More use of technology (including AI) to support decisions
The takeaway
2026 isn’t shaping up to be a year of extremes. It is shaping up to be a year where discipline beats excitement, where diversification matters more than ever, and where staying invested—with perspective—can still pay off.
The opportunity is still there. The challenge is navigating it wisely.
Join Brenthurst’s first online webinar for the year, where we explore all of the above themes and our outlook and strategy for 2026 with a panel of experts by clicking on the link: https://www.bwm.co.za/seminars-webinars/
* Brian Butchart, CFP®, is the Managing Director of Brenthurst Wealth. brianb@brenthurstwealth.co.za