Worldview: South Africa's pariah turn - markets miss the warning signs

Key topics: US isolates Pretoria over ties with global adversaries.Sanctions loom as ANC aligns with authoritarian regimes.Investors underestimate growing geopolitical and financial risks.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Kerry Lanaghan.A harsh geopolitical and economic reckoning may be looming for South Africa. While global markets continue to treat it as just another emerging market, the United States is increasingly treating it as a pariah state - isolated, unpredictable, and veering into the orbit of authoritarian regimes.In a scathing analysis published by the Wall Street Journal, senior analyst Daniel Meizlish* outlines how Washington, particularly under the Trump administration and a hawkish Congress, is losing patience with Pretoria. The triggers are deepening ties with Iran, Russia, and China, legal efforts against Israel, and entrenched corruption at the highest levels of government.Sanctions have already begun to bite. US financial assistance was suspended in February, South Africa’s ambassador was expelled in March, and the special envoy appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa was denied a diplomatic visa in May. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently snubbed the G20 finance summit hosted in South Africa, another diplomatic cold shoulder from Washington.While these moves signal a shift in US foreign policy, global investors remain complacent. The Rand has dipped only slightly against the dollar, and financial institutions continue to operate under the illusion that South Africa is a stable, if volatile, investment destination.But beneath that assumption lies a growing risk. Legislation now under consideration in the US Congress would directly sanction South African officials seen as aligned with global adversaries or complicit in corruption. Those named include former Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, ANC national chair Gwede Mantashe, and EFF leader Julius Malema- all of whom have made statements or policy moves sympathetic to groups or regimes hostile to the US.The potential impact of sanctions would extend far beyond individuals. State-owned companies, banks, energy giants, and even multinationals with South African ties could be swept up in punitive measures. South Africa’s presence on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list already highlights deficiencies in preventing illicit finance. Although Pretoria is lobbying for removal, Meizlish warns that delisting now would create a false sense of security.Compounding the problem is South Africa’s worsening domestic governance. Power cuts, water outages, collapsing infrastructure, and systemic corruption have become routine. Last week, even the police minister was suspended on graft charges - adding to a long list of compromised senior officials.Yet many investors and observers still view South Africa through the lens of Nelson Mandela’s legacy - a democratic beacon of hope and reform. According to Meizlish, that image is dangerously outdated. The ANC, once the standard-bearer of liberation, is now portrayed as a corrupt vehicle of anti-Western ideology.If Pretoria does not recalibrate, the US is unlikely to back down. Sanctions could sever access to dollar-based finance and global supply chains, and trade benefits like AGOA could vanish. In the resulting vacuum, China will likely increase its influence, not as a development partner but as a resource extractor.In Meizlish’s view, the writing is on the wall. What’s missing is market recognition. Wall Street may still be pricing in business as usual. But the geopolitical risk is mounting, and time is running out.(This article is a précis of a piece originally published in The Wall Street Journal and can be read in full here.).*Mr. Meizlish is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He has worked in the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Worldview: South Africa's pariah turn - markets miss the warning signs

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