This week officially sees Parliament reopen and President Jacob Zuma deliver his State of the Nation address. There’s a sense of expectancy around the event as Nomura’s Peter Attard Montalto reckons it’ll carry more weight than this year’s budget address from Pravin Gordhan. In the lead up to the event, the Cape Town Press Club had a series of alternative SONA addresses from opposition leaders (DA, FFP and IFP), Julius Malema excluded. Donwald Pressly reports back, and the main takeout being that President Jacob Zuma, who was the elephant in the room, is not expected to leave office this year, while an economic Codesa is a priority. I say Malema excluded as Pressly expects him to kick off parliament proceedings with the very thing that’s not expected to happen: #ZumaMustFall. This column was first published on Cape Messenger. – Stuart Lowman
By Donwald Pressly*
President Jacob Zuma was definitely the elephant in the room at all three Alternative State of the Nation addresses delivered by Mangosuthu Buthelezi, Corne Mulder and Mmusi Maimane to the Cape Town Press Club in the last few weeks. The three pretended to have been elevated to being President of South Africa for the day.
All three agreed that South Africa needed a radical economic shakeup. Job for boeties of the president and the ANC was a theme of all three speeches. DA leader Mmusi Maimane described the obscene display of conspicuous consumption by a hugely bloated cabinet. He suggested that the president cut the cabinet to just 15 members (down from an executive of 74, the biggest in the world). Buthelezi, who once served in an ANC led unity government as Home Affairs Minister, suggested that the president should say sorry for mistakes and that he should take note that the African people were a patient lot – yet they don’t like being deceived and lied to. Maimane said he would not withdraw a constitutional court case over the presidential compound Nkandla, but he did not call for the resignation of President Zuma.
Only Corne Mulder, who was in the previous parliament and has served continuously as a Freedom Front Plus MP since 1994, ventured into the area of succession. He believed that Zuma has pretty much fallen out with Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy secretary general Jessie Duarte, secretary general Gwede Mantashe and treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize. It is only Baleka Mbete, the national chairman (and speaker of the National Assembly) who seems to have maintained the trust of the president. Apparently the rest are all in the political dog box because they spoke about succession.
None of the three opposition leaders thought – at least publicly – that Zuma would go this year. Mulder said, however, that if the municipal elections were really bad for the ANC (and most expect that they will be), it could result in a succession plan being put in place. But that wouldn’t necessarily mean Zuma would go but it was a possibility that his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma would come in as a caretaker president – sidelining Ramaphosa.
That is a grim analysis indeed, but Mulder may well be right. But what is clear is that South Africa lives in dangerous times. We simply don’t know if the ANC has the gumption to ask the president to leave office gracefully. All three opposition leaders spoke about the daft actions of the president – the axing of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene – and his refusal until this week to pay back the Nkandla money. It appears that his belated offer to pay back some of the money has not impressed Maimane or Julius Malema who remain committed to court procedures to try to get him to implement the Public Protector’s recommendations.
So it seems that South Africa will continue to be ruled by an albatross on the economy, at least for the foreseeable future, if the opposition leaders are right. But Malema hasn’t played his cards yet. He may be the one to take on the Elephant in Parliament. Malema can be trusted to take the Bull by the Horns and say three words at the opening of parliament on February 11: Zuma Must Fall. That you can bet on.
*Donwald Pressly is Editor of Cape Messenger, an online site focused on Western Cape business-related news. He has corresponded from parliament for 23 years. He is also secretary general of the Cape Town Press Club.
