Good luck Elon Musk – Today his SpaceX could revolutionise space travel

Falcon_9_rocketSpaceX aims to propel modern rocket science into a brave new era Tuesday by landing a key part of its Falcon 9 rocket on a floating platform in the Atlantic Ocean.

Billionaire Internet entrepreneur Elon Musk, who heads the California-based company, said on Reddit late Monday he has “no idea” if the attempt will work, after previously giving the bid a 50-50 chance of success.

“I pretty much made that up. I have no idea :)” he wrote in an “Ask Me Anything” session.

The experiment involves the first-ever attempt at guiding the powerful first stage of the rocket to landing spot about 200 miles (322 kilometers) off the coast of northern Florida after launching from Cape Canaveral at 6:20 am (1120 GMT).

SpaceX hopes the effort will transform the rocket industry from one that creates parts worth millions of dollars that are left to fall into the ocean after blastoff, to one that reuses its assets much the way commercial airlines fly the same planes again and again.

“A fully and rapidly reusable rocket — which has never been done before — is the pivotal breakthrough needed to substantially reduce the cost of space access,” said a company statement.

Guided rocket return 

The attempt will come after the Falcon 9 launches from NASA pad early Tuesday, carrying the unmanned Dragon cargo vessel which is packed with supplies and equipment for the six astronauts living at the International Space Station.

The rocket will separate, as it usually does, allowing the second stage to continue propelling the spaceship to orbit.

But this time, SpaceX will relight the engines on the 14-story tall Falcon 9 first stage.

Then, three separate engine burns should guide and slow the rocket down so it can land upright on the 300 by 100 foot (91 by 30 meter) platform, which SpaceX is calling an “autonomous spaceport drone ship.”

Extra fins have been added to the rocket to help it maneuver.

“The grid fins are super important for landing with precision,” Musk wrote on Reddit.

“The aerodynamic forces are way too strong for the nitrogen thrusters. In particular, achieving pitch trim is hopeless. Our atmosphere is like molasses at Mach 4!”

The company has already shown in two tests that it could execute some control over the return the first stage of the Falcon 9, slowing it down to a hover before allowing it to splash into the ocean.

This time, no personnel will be within a distance of about 10 miles from the landing platform, said Hans Koenigsmann, vice president for Mission Assurance at SpaceX.

He also said that real-time updates are not likely even though there are cameras on the rocket to capture the experimental landing.

“It is very difficult to hit a platform of that size,” he said at a NASA briefing on Monday.

“If you look at it from almost 150 miles up in suborbit, it looks like a very small place to land on.”

SpaceX had described the challenge as going from a landing accuracy of 10 kilometers in past tests to 10 meters in this attempt.

In the final moments, gravity should help the rocket set itself down on the platform.

“The center of gravity is pretty low for the booster, as all the engines and residual propellant is at the bottom,” Musk wrote.

Heaviest load yet

The launch was initially supposed to take place last month. But SpaceX postponed it on December 18 after a launchpad static test fire was a “tad short” and the team decided to exercise caution and postpone until the New Year, Koenigsmann said.

If the company’s fifth contracted launch with NASA to the ISS goes ahead as planned Tuesday — and weather is 70-percent favorable for launch — the Dragon cargo ship should arrive at the ISS on January 8.

The supply ship is carrying its heaviest load yet — 1.8 pressurized metric tons of “much-needed cargo,” said ISS program manager Mike Suffredini.

“The SpaceX folks have used quite a bit of ingenuity to help us put items in all the little cracks and crevices as we kind of lean on the Dragon vehicle to supply ISS here for the next little while until the Orbital folks are flying again,” he told reporters.

SpaceX has a $1.6 billion contract with NASA for 12 missions to supply the space station and return cargo to Earth.

Orbital Sciences also has a $1.9 billion contract with NASA to supply the space station.

However, an engine failure on Orbital’s Antares rocket in October cost the company $200 million in lost parts and postponed its remaining launches until further notice. © 1994-2015 Agence France-Presse

By Julie Johnsson of Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk is developing rockets that could be reused, rather than burn up on re-entry to earth’s atmosphere, in the belief they’ll drastically reduce the cost of trips to Mars.

He could make history — and remake the space launch sector — when new technology that captures spent rocket segments is put to the test for the first time tomorrow.

Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. will try to land a Falcon 9 rocket atop an unanchored ocean platform bobbing in the Atlantic Ocean after the missile propels a cargo capsule towards a rendezvous with the International Space Station.

“It could potentially be a significant breakthrough,” said Marco Caceres, director of space studies with Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant. “It’s even more significant if it occurs with the program that is already known to be significantly cheaper” than competing launch vehicles.

Rocket-makers from France’s Arianespace SA to United Launch Alliance, a Boeing Co.-Lockheed Martin Corp. venture, are already streamlining operations to compete with SpaceX’s $61.2 million price for Falcon 9 launches, the industry’s lowest, Caceres said in a phone interview. Reusing the rocket’s Merlin engines and aluminum-lithium alloy structure would drive costs down further. Musk has said that developing a reusable rocket could cut the cost of spaceflight by a factor of 100.

First Musk’s concepts have to work, however. The odds of success on tomorrow’s first mission to retrieve the rocket “are not great — perhaps 50 percent at best,” SpaceX said in a description of the flight on its website.

NASA Commission

Musk will held an online question-and-answer session via the reddit message board, focused on the rocket launch.

SpaceX plans to launch the two-stage rocket and cargo commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration from Florida’s Cape Canaveral at 6:20 a.m. local time.

About 157 seconds into flight, when the Falcon 9 is more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) high and traveling more than 10 times the speed of sound, the craft’s main engines will shut down. Four seconds later, the first and second stages will separate.

To help stabilize the 14-story tall first stage during its return to earth, SpaceX plans to relight the engine for a series of three burns.

The first burn will adjust the rocket segment for the correct point of impact, followed by a “supersonic retro propulsion burn” that along with the drag of the atmosphere will slow its speed from 1,300 meters per second (almost 1 mile per second) to about 250 meters per second, according to SpaceX’s website.

Giant X

Four legs will deploy during a final landing burn as the vehicle’s speed slows to about two meters per second. SpaceX also plans to use four grid fins to help control and steer the Falcon 9 as it targets a barge festooned with a bullseye and giant X.

SpaceX, based in Hawthorne, California, has little margin for error. The floating platform measures 300 feet (91 meters) by 170 feet; the rocket’s legs span 70 feet.

While the space venture successfully guided rockets to soft water landings twice last year, “we could only expect a landing accuracy” of about 10 kilometers, SpaceX said. “For this attempt, we’re targeting a landing accuracy of within 10 meters.”

Any failure could be magnified, Caceres said. Tomorrow’s launch will be high-profile as the first cargo resupply mission since an Antares rocket operated by Orbital Sciences Corp. exploded in a fireball in October.

“That they’re willing to do this with a relatively unproven technology is pretty gutsy,” Caceres said. “He’s willing to take his chances.”

‘We’re Close’

Tory Bruno, president and chief executive officer of the United Launch Alliance, isn’t convinced the technology is mature, or that there’s adequate payoff for the extra fuel and thicker structure required to guide the craft back to earth.

“You’re asking the expendable launch guy what he thinks about reusable engines,” Bruno said during a Nov. 13 address at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. “Their time will come. It’s not here yet.”

Musk is confident that SpaceX will succeed, if not tomorrow, then on one of the dozen launches planned over the next year.

“We’re close,” he told an audience at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in October. – BLOOMBERG

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