In Mozambique, the murders of opposition figures Paulo Guambe and Elvino Dias highlight the political tensions surrounding the October 9th elections. Guambe, a Podemos party official, and Dias, a lawyer, were killed in what many suspect are political assassinations tied to the ruling Frelimo party’s efforts to maintain power. As Mozambique’s youth grows increasingly disillusioned with the status quo, this event reflects a broader African trend of frustration with entrenched elites and dwindling opportunities.
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From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com
© 2024 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.
The Economist
By John McDermott* ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
My phone is buzzing with messages about murder in Mozambique. On Saturday gunmen shot dead Paulo Guambe and Elvino Dias. Mr Guambe was an official for Podemos, an insurgent opposition party that supports Venâncio Mondlane, an independent presidential candidate that has attracted
support from young Mozambicans. Mr Dias was a lawyer helping the party prepare to challenge the results of elections held on October 9th. “These are political assassinations,” Adriano Nuvunga of the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights, an NGO, tells me over the phone.Â
The police say they are investigating. But Western diplomats and Mozambican human-rights groups suspect foul play. Under Frelimo, the party that has ruled the southern African country since independence from Portugal in 1975 and whose candidate this week is likely to be declared the winner of the election, Mozambique has had a history of political violence and dodgy elections. Everyone I trust in Maputo believes that the killings were a warning to those seeking to loosen Frelimo’s grip on power. Ahead of the formal announcement of results Mr Mondlane has accused the ruling party of vote rigging and called for a general strike.Â
These murders are part of a very Mozambican story. Frelimo and Renamo, the official opposition party and Frelimo’s erstwhile enemy in a civil war that lasted from 1977 to 1992, are seen by many as decadent relics with few ideas on how to solve the country’s problems. Though Mozambique enjoyed rapid economic growth after the end of that war the economy has slowed down more recently, in part because aid dried up in the wake of corruption scandals. More than 70% of people are extremely poor. I will never forget popping into a kiosk in the rural north of the country a few years ago to get directions to a ruby mine. I was (politely) swamped by dozens of desperate young men, all of whom assumed that I could get them a job at the mine. Many Mozambicans see Mr Mondlane as a change from a broken status quo.Â
Yet what is happening in Mozambique is part of a broader story playing out across Africa. Fast-growing, well-connected, youthful populations are fed up with a lack of opportunities and believe their politicians—and their politicians’ foreign partners—are to blame. Generation Z is less deferential to parties that may have won their country’s freedom decades ago. Surveys by Afrobarometer, a pan-African pollster, record that the share of 18-35 year-olds saying they feel close to a political party has dipped from 54% to 37% over the past decade or so. I suspect it will fall further. How this shift manifests will vary from country to country. But everywhere it will create opportunities for political entrepreneurs and threaten entrenched political elites, who may be tempted to use violence to defend their power.
 Young people “don’t care about the Frelimo and Renamo history,” says Mr Nuvunga. “They simply don’t care. For them it’s about jobs, about their livelihoods.” Mr Nuvunga is talking only about Mozambique. But he could be talking about Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Uganda or dozens of other countries on the continent.Â
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*John McDermott: Chief Africa Correspondent at The Economist
