Am looking forward to sharing the monthly portfolio update at noon today – not just because it comes from Cape Town where I’m ensconced at the Latitude ahead of tomorrow’s mid-term Budget. I’ll be in lock-up from 6am tomorrow, putting together the important stuff for publication on BizNews.com at 2pm. At 7pm tomorrow evening I’ll host an interactive traditional post-Budget webinar sharing the info you need to know. It’s open to all but you do need to sign up beforehand. Click here to register.
Back to the BizNews share portfolio which was significantly restructured last month. Some changes have already worked out well. One, Telkom, not so, after MTN pulled out of a possible takeover. It could have been worse as ahead of the restructure, I was tempted to add Murray & Roberts after its share price had fallen by half despite an upbeat outlook.
Even after falling further – now a third of August’s price – M&R is not for us. I’m indebted to community member Neels Viljoen’s pointer to Benjamin Graham’s classic definition of an investable stock: “one which, on thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
___STEADY_PAYWALL___Neels, who has plenty of experience in the sector, reckons it is impossible for investors to make anything other than an educated guess whether projects in M&R’s massive order book will make or lose money. A fact the stock market was reminded of last Monday when M&R disclosed serious problems on its mega projects in Texas and Western Australia.
Given such uncertainty, Neels writes, “it is thus impossible to calculate the intrinsic value with any degree of certainty. Luck plays a bigger role.” Ergo M&R shares are speculative, not investable. A timely reminder for all of us. Look forward to seeing you in the webinar at noon. If you haven’t yet registered, here’s the link to sign-up for this Premium-only event.
More for you to read today:
- Winter’s onset will change Russia’s war in Ukraine. Armies on both sides of the war in Ukraine are girding for the unforgiving weather and winter, which will affect the health and morale of troops.
- Never again! Ramaphosa’s plan to “end state capture”. President Ramaphosa has laid out his implementation plan to “forever bring an end to state capture in our country”.
- After $13 trillion stock crash, signs of a turn are now mounting. Judging by the ominous pronouncements from Wall Street luminaries, every trader under the sun should be prepping for fresh turmoil in the world’s biggest stock market.
- Rishi Sunak wins vote to become U.K.’s next Prime Minister after Liz Truss resigns. The former hedge-fund manager arrives with a mandate to bring calm to the ruling Conservative Party following a period of unparalleled chaos that will see the country run by three prime ministers in seven weeks—a first for the U.K.
- Gold Fields looks to Toyota for profit-boosting inspiration. Gold Fields was burning cash almost every year at their only facility in South Africa until it started looking at Toyota for inspiration.
- UK can’t shake Pound negativity after weeks of political chaos. The pound rose as much as 0.9% after Boris Johnson pulled out of the leadership race.
Bernard Mostert shines his searchlight on the furore around the R75.4m mortgage loan on Markus Jooste’s property assets registered in the name of his mentor and business partner Braam van Huyssteen’s trust. He explains how the mortgage came into the trust’s possession – and implications of last week’s preservation order on Jooste’s assets, including his Hermanus home, by the SA Reserve Bank. Mostert also voices concerns over media sensationalism and offers his thoughts on the blockbuster documentary Steinheist in which he featured prominently. He spoke to Alec Hogg of BizNews.
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