Mugabe succession war erupts ahead of next week’s ZANU conference
By Brian Latham, Mike Cohen and Chengetai Zvauya
The political fight is playing out in the capital, Harare, as the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front holds its five-year congress this week to choose its new leadership. The 90-year-old Mugabe, who's ruled the southern African nation since independence from the U.K. in 1980, has said he has no plans to exit the stage, and he still retains the ultimate choice over who his vice president will be.
"There's unprecedented jostling in the party," Mugabe told veterans of the country's war for independence yesterday. "We're experiencing it for the first time and for that matter it is a woman who is saying she wants to take over."
Vice President Joice Mujuru, whose nom de guerre during the independence war was "spill blood," has been criticized in public by Mugabe's wife Grace, who critics call "Gucci Grace" for her allegedly extravagant lifestyle. She's backed by the man known as "the crocodile," the justice minister and former spy chief, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
"There is definitely a risk of ZANU fracturing; probably the catalyst is going to be the demise of Robert Mugabe," Aditi Lalbahadur, a researcher at the South African Institute for International Affairs, said by phone from Johannesburg. "For as long as he is around, I think he's got the personal charisma and the respect within the party to still hold things together."
'Moderate Faction'
Zimbabwe has the world's second-largest chrome and platinum reserves, as well as gold, diamonds, iron ore, nickel and coal. Anglo American Platinum Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Rio Tinto Plc are among companies mining in the country. The government is estimating growth of 3.2 percent this year, down from an average annual rate of 7.5 percent from 2009 to 2012, according to the African Development Bank.
Mujuru, 59, won't be able to stand for election to the party's central committee after her provincial council rejected her application last week. Mugabe could still appoint her as a vice president.
"Mujuru's represented the more moderate faction in Zanu; she potentially represented a shift that could have happened toward leadership that would have created space for opposition politics or greater democracy," Mike Davies, founder of political advisory company Kigoda Consulting, said by phone from Cape Town. "Her removal is likely to leave the hard-liners in control."
'Bedroom Coup'
Grace Mugabe, 49, looks set to join the decision-making politburo since she's the only candidate to be made head of the party Women's League.
In a series of political rallies around Zimbabwe, she has lambasted Mujuru for alleged corruption and repeatedly accused her of treason. Grace also said she had the same right as any Zimbabwean to seek the presidential office.
Mujuru denied plotting against Mugabe.
Zanu-PF is "split in two," party spokesman Rugare Gumbo said before he was suspended last month for "factionalism." The party expelled Jabulani Sibanda, leader of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans's Association who backed Mujuru and accused Mugabe's wife of staging a "bedroom coup."
"Mujuru and her allies have legal options if they wish to resist," constitutional lawyer Alex Magaisa said in an e-mailed response to questions. "The only question is whether there's anyone with the courage to make a challenge and whether they've the energy and capacity to fight."
Business Closures
Ordinary Zimbabweans, battling business closures, deflation and a liquidity crisis, have followed the squabbling factions with increasing anxiety, Magaisa said.
The sudden removal from party offices of people allied to Mujuru over the past month has been a "charade" the country can't afford, Fabulous Ngirande, who sells auto accessories and electrical fittings on the roadside in Harare's northern Mount Pleasant suburb, said in a telephone interview Dec. 1.
"Everyone, I mean everyone, is talking about this issue of Grace and Joice, but it's a charade, it's just Zanu-PF fighting over who controls what in the country," Ngirande said. "It's about money, but it's not about our money, our economy, only what they can control." – BLOOMBERG