by Cees Bruggemans
At first “storm-tossed, demasted, rudderless, dissolute” come to mind as key phrases when trying to grapple with the directionless nature of South Africa’s economy and society at present.
Yet it may be that we are merely quietly riding out the storm, before the wind or simply at anchor in some relatively safe anchorage, waiting for better times to favour us once again.
Which of these two sentiments is the better guide to what is happening to us?
The economy is becalmed. Externally, commodity export prices are starved, internally electricity-constrained, confidence-poor, labour relations strained, in places to breaking point. Our social conditions appear ever more confrontational as unrest prevails and deepens. Our elected leaders occupy their allotted seats but what are they doing there, besides having a good time?
Hardly bolstering confidence in mining, agriculture, manufacturing, business generally, in which policy goalposts are regularly moved, uncertainty deepened in pursuit of various ideals, apparently irrespective of economic costs. What do they think they are doing, besides doing some close friends favours?
Seen top-down this way, we may easily despair about what is being destroyed, the lack of purpose and direction, the deepening abysses separating people. The lack of unity in purpose. The lack of united effort. The lacking common achievement. The sense of a job well done. And this in a larger context. It is simply missing.
However, this does not mean we all have abdicated, gone on holiday, or are resting in the manner of so many elected officials, on or off the job.
From the ground-up, our society and economy as always gives a totally different sense of reality, one in which we individually and together labour on, as persons, in family, in business or organisation teams. Making things happen. Carrying on with life, being productive, generating income, and living life. GDP (gross domestic product and income) isn’t falling. It is growing, if very slowly, only very few benefiting from real progress.
Yet these two different ways of looking at things are important, for they reflect quite opposite understanding of how our society operates.
For many, it is government that controls, decides, produces. Nothing may happen without central government control having a say in what occurs. It makes the rest of society mere beasts of burden, taxing opportunities, and to be rearranged as determined in some greater blue print.
Many people think and act this way, as if it is accomplished fact.
Yet is that the way we carry on most of the time? Or is it that most of us, within the agreed rules we have, proceed as best we can, producing enough so that even our elected leaders can be accommodated in luxury as we carry on our private lives?
Our daily politics gives the impression of being in charge of our collective enterprise, but that is as much as observing the crew of our ship rolling around on a heaving deck, storm-tossed, mostly witless in the mayhem.
Are they really in charge of the sails, of the masts, of the rudder? Or is this make-believe?
It is not as if we have entirely taken leave of our collective senses, though Eskom is an uneasy reminder of what can be, given time.
We have not devastated the national finances, even if the budget deficit is 4% and the national debt rising, now over 45% of GDP. SARB is not conducting an irresponsible monetary policy, with the Rand an orderly adjustment mechanism and inflation mid-single digit overall (though experienced much higher by many).
Poverty is widespread and structural (established). Some may be losing ground while others are gaining it, but it appears a slow attrition process, rather than an abrupt system shock. We don’t know what it is like to have Greek or Russian shock experiences, never mind a Venezuelan one.
Opinion is diverse within society what it wants changed, and how it is going about achieving it.
Much more could probably be achieved much more quickly, and to the benefit of most, if a more united, coherent effort was made.
This awaits a different type of leadership. Perhaps more modern?
