“Simon the Sowetan” dissects and comments on DA Shadow Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Kevin Mileham’s article on Nuclear energy.
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Original article “Nuclear? Not just yet…” by Kevin Mileham
Responses in bold are from Simon the Sowetan
There can be no denying that South Africaâs electricity crisis is real and immediate. It is not some vague, nebulous threat to be dealt with in the future. Its impacts on our economy and on our daily lives are felt in the ongoing loadshedding that is forcing businesses to close, learners to study in the dark learners canât study in the dark, and hospitals, clinics and police stations to operate without power. In 2023, the worst year for loadshedding on record, we had more loadshedding hours than in the previous eight years combined.
In a recent Biznews podcast, Dr. Kelvin Kemm accused me of spreading anti-nuclear propaganda and not having the facts about nuclear correct. Let me be very clear: I am not opposed to nuclear power. I believe there is a place for it in South Africaâs energy mix. You discuss this critical need for the country as though it is a salad. But from a purely pragmatic perspective, I cannot support a nuclear new build at this time. Here then, are the facts on which I base my opinion:
Nuclear builds typically take anywhere from 6 to 8 years to complete. The quickest build on record is that of Japanâs Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant Unit 6, which was completed in 39 months (although designs, permits and authorizations were already in place) Why not use these Japanese and their designs, it shows it can be done with the right will, one has to pitch up with the right will and frame of mind, not a political negativity.. Many run much longer than the typical timeframe, or are abandoned halfway through. In the US alone, more than 100 nuclear power plant projects have been abandoned mid-construction. This is hardly an argument.
In South Africa, we have seen the impact of labour issues, government interference, regulatory concerns, corruption and general mismanagement on large-scale builds, so you can add anything from 4 to 7 years to the typical timeline. One only has to consider Medupi and Kusile to recognize that we are not going to build a new nuclear reactor quickly or cheaply under the current government. So donât expect a new nuclear plant much before 2040⌠So even if you guys get elected in 2024, which is a pipe dream I see reported almost daily, you couldnât do it in 16 years! So why should I vote for you?
Despite the hype around Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), there are no commercially operational projects anywhere. Every nuclear powered submarine or ship is in fact a small modular reactor, someone, not from the government needs to adapt them for commercial use. If everyone had your approach we would still be using land lines, because in 1988 no one had made a successful cost effective mobile phone The company that was furthest ahead, NuScale, has just cancelled its highly subsidised pilot project, as its cost projections rose from $58/Mwh to $89/Mwh and customers began withdrawing from the project. Kemmâs own companyâs HTMR-100 is not yet even design approved. Who needs to approve the design, another negative politician who has never designed or built anything? To achieve anything the first thing you need to do is approach it positively, then donât give it to a committee or a politician to do.
It should be pointed out that Koebergâs life extension project (for a further 20 years of operation, not 40, as stated by Kemm) is behind schedule, and there is very little clarity forthcoming from Eskom regarding the cost thereof. In addition, it seems increasingly likely that the licence to operate Koeberg will expire in July 2024, without a new licence in place. What the f*@k has the licence got to do with this discussion, just renew it, typical political approach.
South Africaâs debt to GDP ratio stood at 72.7% as at June 2023, with the national government debt standing at $266.9 billion. The overnight CAPEX cost, based on reasonable estimates (comparable to the recent Egyptian nuclear build) is $4500 per kWe. To build 2500MW would therefore cost in the region of $11.25 billion, excluding financing costs (and corruption, cost overruns etc.). This would add significantly to South Africaâs debt burden, and place increased pressure on the taxpayer. Like any politician anywhere has ever cared about the âburden on the taxpayerâ Itâs a phrase you guys roll out when you are trying to score political points.
Kemm implies that the cost of a nuclear new build in 2015 would have been offset by the money spent on renewable IPPs. But this is a false assertion. The capital cost of a nuclear new build would have been on the Eskom (i.e. government) balance sheet, while that of renewable IPPs is carried by the developer, and Eskom buys the electricity generated from them. What if the nuclear build was done by an IPP?
He further suggests that if we had built a nuclear power plant in 2015, we would not have loadshedding today.
Firstly, I doubt whether any nuclear procurement which commenced in 2015 would be adding any electricity to the grid for at least another few years (especially if under the control of anyone with a belief that nothing can get done, this is why we are in the do-do,). And, according to Kemm, there was no procurement deal on the table in 2015 anywayâŚ.
Secondly, he goes on to say that renewables are hardly contributing to SAâs electricity supply. This is untrue, as Eskom data from 17 December 2023 shows: overnight, renewables contributed 2088MW (in comparison to Koeberg, which was only generating 878MW).
Thirdly, he fails to acknowledge that the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) JYPLTA (Jesus you politicians love these acronyms) was effectively halted in 2015 by Brian Molefe and Eskom, who refused to sign power purchase agreements with the independent power producers. The programme was only restarted in 2022. It is widely agreed that this would have significantly reduced loadshedding, had it been allowed to proceed normally. BS. Ask Germany, they shut down Nuclear, coal and oil, and when there back up gas got cut off the truth came out, renewables are part of the Climate Crisis Religion.
South Africa did indeed produce quality nuclear professionals for many years. Sadly, most of those have now left, and are working all over the world. A common refrain from Eskom is that Koeberg has difficulty retaining nuclear staff because they are being poached with higher salaries internationally So we must still be producing them to have them poached Much of the intellectual property we developed (in the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, for example) is also gone. Where, you make it sound like it no longer exists.
You will note that I havenât addressed the environmental aspects or the cost of generation of nuclear power at all. I have not done so, not because they are irrelevant, but rather because the issues I am raising are sufficient, in my opinion, to scupper any proposed nuclear deal at this time. It sounds like thatâs your intention, to âscupperâ any deal.
Our solutions to this crisis need to be prioritized to address the urgency of our need. If you had a solution to this crisis you would not have to prioritise it, just do it. A solution that is 5 or 10 years down the line needs to take a back seat to immediate actions that can restore some semblance of normality and security to our supply of electricity. It is in this context that the debate over a nuclear new build must be considered. So letâs sort out the immediate problem. We need more electricity right now. How can we achieve that?
Firstly, we need to incentivize rooftop solar, at both commercial/industrial and residential level. We need to make it easier and cheaper to import components and to install. We also need to accelerate the roll out of the various IPP procurement programmes to bring more generation to the grid as quickly as possible. Where does the money come from to incentivise the solar? Oh bugger, itâs the taxpayer. How are you going to make it easier and cheaper to import and install? Accelerate the rollout, sounds like more political speak, what you mean is get the government and politicians out the way and let the private sector fill the need.
At the same time, we need to address our transmission infrastructure issues. At the end of 2022, Eskom indicated that it needed R180 billion over the next several years to upgrades its grid capacity (in particular, to build new transmission lines from where electricity can be generated to where it is needed, and to improve its ability to manage the inputs from various sources of electricity generation and storage). Since then, the projected grid costs have increased significantly on at least two occasions. Why not generate the electricity where it is needed? The grid costs have increased significantly, is this because of the increased or changed structure of the required grid, or because of inflation? If the latter it didnât happen on two occasions, like Happy Birthday, hereâs a price increase.
Lastly, we need a change in government, ah ha, now we are getting to the guts of this discussion) to one that is transparent and accountable. We need political leadership, we do not need âleadershipâ from politicians, we need them to do what we the people want, this political class, which is what it has become world-wide, is the tail wagging the dog we can trust and an energy policy that addresses the situation we find ourselves in, not pie-in-the-sky vanity megaprojects, designed only to line the pockets of the corrupt and the connected. Kevin, what motivates you to be in politics? The real reason, not the one rolled out for expedience.
Once all thatâs in place, we can consider a nuclear new build.
You need to watch âThe Planet of The Humansâ a documentary produced by Michael Moore, AL Gores producer of the Inconvenient Truth.
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