Key topics
- Coal and nuclear will remain key in SA’s energy mix for 10–20 years.
- Wind, solar, and battery storage are the most viable new energy sources.
- New nuclear and gas projects face high costs and long implementation delays.
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Coal and nuclear power will continue to form part of South Africa’s energy mix for at least 10 to 20 years, with the addition of gas and new nuclear generation capacity unlikely to be realised in the near future.
This is according to energy expert Chris Yelland, who told the SABC that wind and solar power generation are the most efficient ways of addressing South Africa’s capacity shortage, while nuclear and gas are not currently feasible.
“The only game in town right now is wind, solar PV, and battery energy storage because that’s what’s financeable and can be delivered quickly,” Yelland said.
This was in response to Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who said South Africa is focused on adding to the energy mix rather than subtracting from it.
“The Minister was clear that the significant majority of the new generation capacity is going to be from renewable energy, but that does not mean that the end of coal is about to happen,” Yelland added.
Yelland explained that South Africa has legacy coal infrastructure that will remain the backbone of the country’s energy mix while it develops its renewable energy sector.
The same goes for the country’s legacy nuclear power generation infrastructure, which had its lifespan extended by 20 years thanks to an extensive Long-Term Operation programme at Koeberg Power Station.
This involved the maintenance of Koeberg’s Unit 2 reactor, which was synchronised to the national grid at the end of 2024, adding 930MW of capacity.
This has been one of Eskom’s most reliable power plants for four decades.
On the other hand, while operating renewable power plants has become cheaper than fossil fuel-based generation, they have one significant shortcoming — unpredictable output.
As a result, some energy experts believe that the answer for new baseload capacity is nuclear power.
The governemnt’s draft integrated resource plan 2023 (IRP 2023) acknowledges the critical role that nuclear can play, although it does not include any new nuclear capacity in the country’s energy mix by 2030.
Despite this, Ramkogopa gazetted a new determination launching a process to procure 2,500MW of new nuclear power for South Africa in January 2024, which was taken from the previously approved IRP 2019.
However, Yelland said that although there has been talk about adding new nuclear technology to the country’s energy mix, it is not likely that South Africa will be able to use it anytime soon.
“There’s a lot of talk about technologies such as small modular reactors, but the reality is that right now they are not commercially available and not licensed,” he said.
“We don’t know the prices of these technologies, so there’s still some way to go, maybe a decade or 15 years before these become an option for South Africa.”
When asked about Ramokgopa’s statement that gas forming part of South Africa’s energy mix is not a transitional energy source but the destination, Yelland said he disagreed.
He pointed out that while gas power is needed, it is particularly expensive, especially since South Africa lacks natural gas resources and has to rely on imports.
“There are opportunities for gas in Africa. However, in South Africa, it is all talk and has been all talk for the past 20 years,” he said.
“We don’t even have a gas masterplan and don’t have significant quantities of indigenous natural gas. The finds we do have off the Southern Coast have proven to be technically and commercially difficult, resulting in companies like Total Energies walking away.”
Read also:
- 🔒 The energy transition is powered by — wait for it — coal: Javier Blas
- South Africa enacts law to end Eskom’s monopoly and boost electricity market competition
- Rational perspective: Why SA must embrace nuclear, coal to power growth
This article was first published by MyBroadband and is republished with permission.
