Moses Tembe: The speech that was never given in Abu Dhabi

Key topics:Africa moves from marginalised pawn to active global player in 2026.Global South and multipolarity boost Africa’s economic and strategic leverage.Mineral wealth, youth, and AfCFTA create vast growth and investment opportunities..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Mr Moses Tembe*.Introduction Since independence, African nations have operated within a global system they did not help design, one that often undermined their agency and development. At the beginning of the 21st century, Africa stood as the poorest, most technologically backward, most debt distressed, and the most marginalised region in the world (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 2000). At that time, The Economist (13 May 2000) dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”. It was a periphery of dysfunction, a space to be managed rather than engaged; a geography of weakness, rather than agency, a region to stabilise or assist, not to reckon with. The continent was treated more as a problem to be solved than as a sovereign actor, and its people were measured only in humanitarian terms. Western nations primarily saw Africa as a looting ground to extract natural resources. The continent was relegated to supplying raw materials, which were then imported as finished products. It remained marginally connected to global trade. Africa was spoken about, rarely spoken with. Its role was assigned, not asserted. Rather than being a sovereign actor, it was framed as a strategic prize. Instead of being at the table, it was on the menu. For too long, Africa was defined by others, and indeed, for much of the modern era, Africa was not seen as a player in global power politics but as a pawn, exploited to serve external interests. During the Cold War, the continent was a battlefield for proxy wars. The continent has largely remained a receiver rather than an active contributor of decisions shaping its economic destiny at global decision-making forums. The Bretton Woods institutions’ voting structures have been systematically marginalising the continent. Fast forward to 2026, and the position of Africa in the world is irreversibly changing. Major power rivalry and geopolitical tension are on the rise. Unilateral action and protectionism are gaining momentum. The United Nations (UN) faces an existential crisis. International law is under enormous assault. The Anglo-American-led rules-based global order, which has ruled the world since the end of the Second World War, is in its most severe crisis in eighty years and is undergoing a historic transformation. Global power dynamics are undergoing dramatic change and are shifting toward an emerging order characterised by increasing multipolarity, in which regional organisations, emerging powers, and new financial frameworks are playing a greater role in shaping global governance. The old framework is being dismantled, not by moral awakening, but by strategic necessity. The global power structure is dispersing, shifting away from the long-standing unipolar dominance of the West toward a multipolar world in which emerging economies are playing an increasingly significant role. Africa is not waiting; it is rejecting its marginal place and stepping confidently onto the field as a united, disciplined, and strategically minded team. It is sitting at the centre of this transformation, seizing the opportunity to make the emerging global order more amenable for securing the well-being of its peoples, and becoming a co author of the evolving global order. The emerging multipolar world is offering space for Africa to assert its agency, and so far, it has shown flashes of brilliance. Background: Rise of the Global South Until about a decade ago, the US and the European Union (EU) were the dominant trading partners with the Global South. However, the past two decades have seen the emergence of several key actors shaping the global political landscape. China instrumentalised the tools of the liberal international order to further its own national goals, while rejecting the political and ideological elements of the liberal playbook. It leveraged the access to markets through the World Trade Organisation to enter the vast European and US markets, thereby powering its manufacturing sector. It moved to the Global South, became the leading investor in many economies, displacing the West. China’s “no strings attached” approach has appealed to African and Global South governments seeking greater autonomy in their decision-making. Chinese aid often arrives faster and is less entangled in bureaucratic processes and safeguards, making it an attractive option for countries seeking rapid development. With China's rise, the West was no longer the only source of capital or legitimacy. .Read more:.Africa’s youth exodus: Opportunity or crisis? – Ciku Kimeria.Another merging power was Russia. Despite economic constraints, Russia remains a major military power and energy supplier, exerting regional influence in Eurasia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. India, as the world’s most populous democracy and a fast growing economy, plays a leading role in the Global South and multilateral forums like BRICS and the G20. The Gulf monarchies have also seized the moment, making sizable investments in Africa and Asia. Over and above these individual states, the past two decades have also witnessed the emergence and strengthening of institutions and alliances from the global South that have provided a serious challenge to the US hegemony, becoming alternative power centres and sources of funding. BRICS emerged as a coalition representing emerging economies advocating reform of global governance. From the original members, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, other states, Ethiopia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates have been added. Nigeria, Uganda and Algeria are BRICS partners. Its membership will likely increase in the future. Regional and continental bodies, such as ASEAN, the African Union, and MERCOSUR, have also been putting their act together, becoming forces to be reckoned with, and seeking greater representation in global governance structures, and challenging the historical dominance of the West. As the Western-led order frays and fragments, the Global South is emerging as a new driving force, poised to redefine global dynamics on its own terms. As the world shifts to a multipolar order, nations from the Global South are seizing the moment. They are driving global economic growth and shaping the future by deepening their trade and investment relationships with the rest of the world and leveraging their resources, workforces, and markets. They are seeking a stronger voice in global governance and are likely to remain central to shaping the contours of a more multipolar international order. The Global South nations are generally multi-aligned and unencumbered by the geopolitical agendas of the major powers. Indeed, they are increasingly forming new trade, technology, and economic development partnerships that align with their own strategic priorities, rather than simply responding to external pressures. The rising Global South powers have moved far beyond the symbolic roles they played in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) during the Cold War, using their geopolitical and economic leverage to achieve key goals, such as strategic investments and the acquisition of technology. They are engaging in a sophisticated balancing act amid competition between the US, China, and other major powers. This combination of economic dynamism and strategic leverage positions the Global South to develop and grow on its own terms, seize new economic opportunities, and serve as a crucial “swing player” in a fractured world order. Moreover, Global South nations are desirable trading and investment partners for most of the world’s leading trading players, giving them access that even top economies no longer enjoy. They are generally free to pursue pragmatic policies that keep them open for business to all. While highly diverse, they share a focus on economic growth and on deepening trade and investment links with the rest of the world. More importantly, players in the Global South are increasingly investing among themselves and building new bridges to growth and opportunity, balancing partnerships across the different poles in a multipolar world. The multipolar world The world order is changing dramatically from the ideological and military bipolarity between the US and the Soviet Union that characterised the Cold War (1947-1991), to a period of unipolarity after the fall of the Soviet Union, when the US became the world’s sole superpower exercising unmatched global influence, to a complex multipolar system in which multiple states or power blocs possess relatively equal and significant influence in global affairs, following the 2008 global financial crisis (Peters 2023). Power is no longer concentrated in the hands of a single hegemon but diffused among a constellation of regional actors—political, economic, military, and cultural—that interact in a complex balance. In this context, power is not solely military; it also includes economic capacity, technological innovation, demographic weight, and cultural soft power. A multipolar structure has several centres of power, preventing any single state from dominating international affairs. States are forming flexible, overlapping partnerships rather than rigid blocs, and engaging in strategic balancing to prevent dominance by any single power. Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos (2025) likened the multipolar order to the English Premier League, where no one team is guaranteed to take the trophy at the end of the season because the League is unpredictable, competitive, and full of surprise victories. The world is no longer a two-team league of superpowers (as during the Cold War) or a one-club show (the post-Cold War unipolar world), but it is increasingly multipolar, with many teams vying for influence. Likewise, the US dollar’s dominance in international finance is being challenged by other currencies, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, and other regional currencies. The emergence of multiple centres of power has led to the proliferation of multilateral institutions and alternative alliances, such as the G20, BRICS, and the strengthening of regional organisations such as ASEAN, the African Union and MERCOSUR. Multipolarity has reshaped global security dynamics. Without a single hegemon enforcing stability, international relations are becoming more fluid and unpredictable. Opportunities for Africa in a multi-polar world As the new global order dawns, Africa finds itself at a decisive juncture. The current multipolarity presents an unprecedented opportunity for Africa to take control of its economic future. The global economic centre of gravity has been moving eastward, driven by China’s meteoric rise and Asia’s broader economic resurgence, where economics now overshadows traditional geopolitical concerns. This shift offers alternatives that prioritise infrastructure development and trade over political conditionality. African nations are increasingly inclined to engage in partnerships that enhance their sovereignty, promote self reliance and develop on their own terms. This geoeconomic shift necessitates a diversification of foreign policy by African nations. While Western powers remain key partners, African countries no longer exclusively rely on the West for their development needs. Wary of becoming pawns in a new Cold War between the US and China, African nations seek to balance their relationships with both powers, leveraging their economic importance to extract concessions from each, thus maximising the benefits of foreign investment. Rather than aligning exclusively with any one camp, many African states are seeking to expand their diplomatic and economic options. One potential outcome of this global realignment is the rise of South-South cooperation, in which African nations collaborate directly with other Global South nations, bypassing traditional Western-led institutions. The global powers need Africa just as much as, if not more than, Africa needs them. Africa has strategic value for the global powers vying for influence. Its vast mineral resources, particularly rare earth elements such as lithium, cobalt, bauxite, manganese, and graphite, are becoming central to global supply chains of high-technology-intensive industries. The continent holds approximately 30–50% of the world’s reserves of rare earth elements. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alone supplies over 70% of the world’s cobalt. Zimbabwe, Namibia, and South Africa are becoming critical suppliers of lithium and other rare earth elements. The continent also holds viable deposits of copper, graphite, molybdenum, nickel and zinc, essential for electric vehicles, hydrogen electrolysers, solar PV cell technology and wind turbines. The global powers are scrambling for Africa’s rare minerals critical to energy, defence and industrial technologies. China leads in rare earths, lithium and cobalt for electronics and renewable energy, and has spent more than two decades in Africa’s mining sector, signing long-term mineral extraction agreements across the continent. The US is focused on securing strategic minerals for defence and industrial policy. Recent media reports indicate that the US is targeting Botswana, South Africa and DRC for the rare earths because it has only about two months’ worth of the critical materials left in its defence stockpile as the war with Iran intensifies, making access to new supply sources increasingly urgent (Okebiorun 2026). China, which has traditionally supplied the US with such minerals, has imposed export restrictions, forcing the US to turn to Africa with urgency to “de-risk” from Chinese dependency. European countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands target lithium, cobalt and copper for green energy and electric vehicles. Japan, India and South Korea are also competing for cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare earths to support battery production and high-tech industries. The new scramble is not for colonies; it is for contracts, concessions, and control of rare earths, and whoever controls these resources controls the terms of technological advancement. The scramble for Africa’s rare earths among global powers is providing a silver lining for Africa to leverage this competition to get investment flows, development assistance, infrastructure funding, and better trade agreements to boost its socioeconomic growth. As the competition between the global powers intensifies, the continent should assert its own agency, ensuring that its interests take precedence. This also presents exceptional opportunities for climate-smart value chain development on the continent. This mineral abundance can transform Africa from a source of developmental concern into a site of geoeconomic contestation. African nations are now treating their mineral wealth seriously, not as commodities to be auctioned, but as strategic assets that confer bargaining power. African nations are moving towards value-driven trade by processing their mineral resources domestically, rather than just exporting raw materials. In 2023, Namibia banned the export of unprocessed lithium and other critical minerals as it sought to profit from growing global demand for metals (Reuters 2023). Recently, Zimbabwe imposed a ban on exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrate, insisting on in-country value addition (Al Jazeera 2026). Value addition has not only been in mining, but across all sectors of the economy. The Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) recently built a regionally integrated beef processing factory to enhance the value of beef products through advanced processing techniques.1 This has enabled the company to offer a diversified range of high-quality meat products to both local and international markets. This strategic shift to value addition will position African nations as essential backbones in global value chains as companies seek diversified manufacturing locations. Benin, a top African cashew nut producer, historically exported over 95% of its nuts raw. To address this, the government partnered with Arise Industrial Platforms (Arise IIP) to develop the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone to localise processing and capture more value locally. The zone now hosts Benin Cashew SA, which has the capacity to process 120,000 tons per year (88% of Benin’s 2023 raw nut exports). This initiative helped boost projected exports by US$170 million annually and created new local jobs (Dupoux et al. 2025). Another asset Africa boasts of and which can catapult it to economic prosperity is its dynamic population growth and its youth demographic. The continent has the youngest population in the world, with more than 400 million individuals aged between 15 and 35 years, and is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 (a quarter of the world’s population), and to double by 2100. By 2030, Africa will contribute more to the global workforce than any other region. This rapidly growing and youthful population creates one of the world’s largest emerging consumer markets. This demographic not only fuels optimism for the future but 1https://bmc.bw/blog/news-1/botswana-meat-commission-breaks-ground-on-new-meat-value-addition plant-and-revitalised-tannery-28will ensure that early investors maximise this most significant demographic dividend in world history. Furthermore, Africa’s economy has been growing steadily over the years. Between 2000 and 2015, more than a dozen African countries experienced sustained economic growth. GDP rose, foreign direct investment surged, and debt levels were alleviated through initiatives like the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) programme. Its combined Global Domestic Product (GDP) has grown from US$537 billion in 1998 to US$3.4 trillion in 2020 (Zambakari 2025). FDI has grown at a steady 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2019. This growth reflects long-term investor interest in the continent’s structural potential. The continent’s largest trade corridor - with China - is forecast to grow by US$173 billion, more than any other partner. It is projected that Africa’s total trade will grow by 3.5% annually to 2033, outpacing the EU27 at 2%, with the most significant shifts occurring toward Asia (Dupoux et al. 2025). Africa's trade integration has been very limited. Intra-African trade accounted for just 16% of total trade in 2023, far behind intra-EU (70%) and intra-Asia (60%) levels (Dupoux et al. 2025:17). The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the world’s largest free trade bloc by membership, bringing together 54 countries with a market of 1,3 billion consumers, was established with the scale and ambition to shift Africa from fragmented markets to a truly integrated trade and investment bloc and to be Africa’s collective voice in a multipolar world. Its goal is to establish a single market for goods and services across 54 countries, allow the free movement of business travellers and investments, and create a continental customs union to streamline trade and attract long-term investment. AfCFTA is a landmark achievement in regional economic integration and Africa's most ambitious platform for shaping a collective economic future. The IMF described the free-trade zone as a potential “economic game changer” (Cloete 2019). It is an opportunity to rewire Africa’s trade from fragmented and externally-oriented to scaled and self-reinforcing. It is hoped that this single market for goods and services will increase opportunities for African companies of all sizes by providing them with access to larger markets and increasing the ease of doing cross border business through the elimination of tariffs on 90% of goods traded within the continent and the reduction of non-tariff trade barriers. If fully implemented, it could boost intra-African exports by 32% and increase FDI by 68% (World Bank, 2022). A more integrated regional market would reduce reliance on external suppliers, enable industrial growth, improve supply chain resilience, and enhance Africa's negotiating power in global trade. Already, the AfCFTA has shown some flashes of brilliance. Under the AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative, Kenya exported over 84 tonnes of tea to Ghana in 2022, a trade lane previously dominated by imports from outside Africa. In 2025, Ethiopia made its first shipment of goods traded under the AfCFTA to Kenya, Somalia, and South Africa, filled with coffee, fruits, and processed foods. South Africa became the first among the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries to start trading as part of the AfCFTA. Southern African governments have already started to ramp up investments to expand land transport infrastructure to facilitate this movement of goods and people. The trucks and planes carrying the cargo were carrying more than merchandise, but they carried the promise of a continent trading with itself, investing in itself, and believing in its own capacity (Timothewos 2025). Africa also boasts 65% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. Investments in innovative agricultural practices and their value chain can be a lucrative business on the continent. On a continent where clean drinking water is scarce, ensuring access to clean water and sanitation provides opportunities for investments in innovative infrastructure, water conservation and resource recovery from wastewater. Smart water management systems can improve efficiency and reliability in delivering these vital services, supporting sustainable development. Africa’s vast coastline offers lucrative prospects in the blue economy, generating US$296 billion and 49 million jobs in 2018, and projections indicate US$576 billion and 127 million jobs by 2063, about 5 percent of Africa’s active population. Marine and coastal tourism, worth US$80 billion, surpasses the global average and strategic investments could yield US$100 billion and employ 28 million people by 2030. Ocean renewable energy presents a vast untapped resource for Africa, with the potential to generate between 100 and 400 percent of current global energy demand. Some African countries have already begun incorporating blue energy into their energy mixes, such as Ghana’s exploration of wave energy and Mauritius’ investment in floating solar photovoltaics. Marine and coastal tourism presents tremendous opportunities for sustainable development in Africa, with potential value-added exceeding US$100 billion by 2030. By incorporating sustainability principles, this sector can build resilience and contribute to long-term economic growth while conserving marine biodiversity. Various ecotourism business opportunities in Africa range from wildlife safaris and conservation tourism to sustainable agriculture and culinary tourism, offering unique experiences that capitalise on the continent’s rich wildlife (UNEP 2023). .Read more:.State capitalism surges: Governments now major players in global economy – Adrian Wooldridge.Africa has vast renewable energy potential to meet its surging demand (solar – 7900GW, wind – 461GW, geothermal – 15GW), the highest solar energy potential across developing markets (UNEP 2023). The continent’s climate change vulnerability creates opportunities for innovative investors to make a transformative impact that builds the continent’s climate resilience. Africa offers a range of green business opportunities which fall into three broad categories: climate-smart opportunities for a net-zero transition, nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and sustainable resource management, and circular economy opportunities (UNEP 2023). Innovative business models and cost-effective investments in other sustainable products, such as energy-efficient cookstoves, innovative lighting solutions and cool roof paint, offer opportunities for green businesses. The African LED lighting market is expected to grow significantly, from US$3.71 billion in 2023 to US$5.49 billion by 2028, presenting a lucrative opportunity for businesses in the lighting sector. The AfCFTA presents a transformative opportunity for investors to access a vast and integrated market, driving sustainable economic growth and fostering environmental stewardship continent-wide. These fundamentals continue to inspire investor confidence. The pursuit of sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa hinges on embracing a robust digital transformation. Achieving digital transformation in Africa promises to reshape industries and drive innovation, with the internet economy projected to make substantial contributions to Africa’s economic landscape by contributing up to $180 billion by 2025 and US$712 billion by 2050 (UNEP 2023). Africa’s digital and mobile services have experienced a remarkable surge in accessibility. The continent’s large and fast-growing marketplace of 1.4 billion people, over 500 million internet users and 330 million e-commerce users have immense growth opportunities. Its fast-expanding tech ecosystem presents an exceptional opportunity for both tech and non-tech companies to enter the market, offering a level of potential that rivals the opportunities previously witnessed in other developing regions of the world. Already more than 600 technology hubs have emerged across the continent, with three of them achieving international recognition in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Acceleration of tech growth entrepreneurship presents a first-mover opportunity window for businesses and investors to consider seriously. Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) can be a potent tool for catapulting Africa into realising the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As organisations worldwide make frantic efforts to utilise AI as a solution for various challenges spanning agriculture, business processes, economy, environment, human health, human resources management and beyond, Africa stands in a favourable position to leverage AI. The continent’s youthful population, which is inherently tech-savvy, will be more likely to stretch the limits of AI and thereby likely to generate new uses and complementary technologies, which bode well for the future of AI in Africa, potentially transforming the continent into an AI superpower (UNEP 2023). There is significant scope for bold, first-movers to build strong, easily recognisable and profitable brands and win over the loyalty of consumers long before other players enter the market. By relocating some of their supply chains to Africa or by entering into partnerships with local suppliers, investors will contribute to employment creation, especially in digital- and high-technology-intensive industries and, hence, to income growth. Investing in South Africa South Africa is one of the most sophisticated, diverse and promising emerging markets globally. Its strategic global positioning is seen in its membership of BRICS and the G20. It is a key investment location, both for the market opportunities that lie within its borders and as a gateway to the rest of the continent, a market of about 1.3 billion people. It is perfectly located to be used as a gateway for foreign investors to expand their businesses into the rest of Africa. South Africa has several trade agreements that provide an export platform into global markets. It is the economic powerhouse of Africa. It has a favourable demographic profile, and its rapidly expanding middle class has a growing consumer market. South Africa has a number of world-class universities, producing a skilled and capable workforce. The government has introduced wide-ranging legislation to promote training and skills development and fast-track the building of world-class skills and competencies. South Africa has a wealth of natural resources (including coal, platinum, gold, iron ore, manganese, nickel, uranium and chromium) and it has been enjoying increased attention from international exploration companies, particularly in the oil and gas sector. It has world-class infrastructure, exciting innovation, and research and development capabilities. The Global Innovation Index ranks South Africa number one in innovation in Africa. South Africa’s intellectual property rights protection is regarded as the second-best in Africa. South Africa is also fast becoming a technology hub in Africa and has a growing ecosystem in the tech sector, ranging from technical expertise to finance support for entrepreneurs. South Africa has a well-developed, diversified manufacturing base that has shown its potential to compete globally, and serves as a manufacturing hub to supply the rest of the continent with a number of consumer products. It is at the forefront of the development and rollout of new green technologies and industries. South Africa has sophisticated financial, legal and telecommunications sectors, and a number of global business process outsourcing (BPO) operations are located in the country. It is the investment destination of choice for a substantial number of global corporates, who enjoy the benefits of doing business in the country. More than 180 Fortune Global 500 companies are present in South Africa. It has political and macro-economic stability, and it compares favourably to other emerging markets in terms of the overall cost of doing business. For professional jobs, labour costs are less than half of the cost in European countries. For manufacturing jobs, labour costs are around one-third of the cost in Europe. South Africa has entered into double taxation treaties with a number of countries. With these treaties, a foreign entity doing business in South Africa does not pay tax in both the country of origin and in South Africa. The country allows foreign employees to get employment in South Africa. Foreign nationals with critical skills can obtain employment in South Africa. Furthermore, foreign companies with business operations in South Africa are able to obtain intra-company transfer work visas for their employees to work in their South African operations. The country is renowned for its quality of life, offering both high-quality city experiences and more tranquil and breathtaking landscapes. South Africa’s unrivalled scenic beauty and reputation for delivering value-for-money make it an attractive leisure and business travel destination. In the shifting balance of economic and political power, South Africa has the opportunity to project its influence. Conclusion Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics, Africa is no longer invisible; it has become indispensable. Rich in critical minerals, a youthful and expanding workforce, increasingly large consumer markets, expanding business opportunities, home to strategic digital infrastructure, and central to climate and demographic futures, Africa’s role in the new global order is not that of a passive beneficiary or a contested prize to be claimed. It is positioning itself as an active participant in shaping the future of the international order. It is an architect building its own economic pathways, defining its own partnerships, and insisting on its own terms of engagement. For the strategic investor, the institutional actor, the entrepreneur with vision, Africa is not merely an emerging market but an arena where multipolarity meets value creation. The question is no longer whether to engage with Africa, but rather how to align with its trajectory as it contributes to shaping the new world. The time for old narratives is over. Africa is building its own future. It is not just “rising”, it is creating, deciding, and competing on the global stage. Africa will be a central player in this new world order. .*Moses Tembe: Entrepreneur, Former-President of Durban Chamber of Commerce and IndustryCo-Chair of KZN Growth Coalition

Moses Tembe: The speech that was never given in Abu Dhabi

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