After the Gaza War: Israel at peace’s door, Gaza at crossroads - Katzenellenbogen
Key topics
October 7 attacks killed hundreds and took many hostages in Israel.
Hamas weakened but tunnels, extremists, and regional threats remain.
Trump cease-fire deal offers cautious hope for Gaza and Middle East.
Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.
Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.
If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.
Last week at the Nir Oz Kibbutz, two kilometres from the Gaza border, there were three funerals for hostages that had died in captivity. They were seized during the October 7th attacks two years ago, and their bodies had recently been handed over by Hamas.
On 7 October, 42 Nir Oz residents were killed and 72 were taken hostage. As funerals were taking place at Nir Oz, some of the buildings that were destroyed in the attack were being demolished to make way for rebuilding.
At the nearby site of the Nova music festival which Hamas also attacked on 7 October, killing 378 people and taking 44 hostage, there are poster memorials to the dead. Nearby, another memorial is made up of the burnt-out carcasses of cars piled high. Many have bullet holes.
While at the site of the massacre last week, we heard three very loud explosions coming from Gaza, just five kilometres away. We were told these were the sounds of the Israel Defense Forces blowing up tunnels.
On almost every street in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa through which I walked last week, there were stickers in memory of Israeli soldiers who had been killed in action. With almost 2,000 IDF soldiers killed, the 1,200 civilians killed, and 251 taken hostage, this is a war that will remain deeply etched in Israel’s psyche.
Read more:
The enormous death toll in Gaza also means that it will be deeply etched into the minds of Palestinians and throughout the Islamic world. It is also likely to be a powerful impetus for recruitment to the Jihadi cause.
Yet with the release of the remaining 20 living hostages and the Trump cease-fire deal, there is a definite air of optimism in Israel. Those whom I briefly spoke to on the streets and those from the Jewish, Moslem Druze, and Christian communities, as well as government officials and analysts, saw new hope for peace. The reasons are more to do with the ending of the war, at least for the moment, rather than any positive views about next steps.
Israel has only achieved partial victory in this war.
Hamas is largely defeated but not completely eradicated. It continues with shows of force in the form of public executions on the streets and battles against the clans that oppose its rule. Disarming Hamas and destroying its remaining tunnels will be a difficult job. It remains unclear what countries will contribute the large number of troops needed to oversee the new dispensation in Gaza. Without progress on these matters, there is little chance of Gaza being rebuilt.
And without a de-radicalisation programme aimed at steering people away from Jihadism, the threat for Israel will remain.
The delay and uncertainty in implementing the Trump plan could also strengthen the parties on the Israeli right and make further deals difficult.
Hezbollah is re-arming in Lebanon. Syria’s President, who overthrew the Assad regime, is talking to Israel through mediators. However, as a former Al Qaeda leader he may well want to build a regional caliphate with its centre in Damascus. And Iran might still pose other challenges.
During the war, attitudes have hardened in Israel. After October 7 much Israeli opinion is opposed to a two-state solution: one Palestinian and one Israeli state. The potential existential threat to Israel from such a state could make “from the river to the sea” a reality. October 7 has infinitely delayed or even ruled out the idea of a Palestinian state. It is largely the religious extremists, a distinct minority in Israel, who want a permanent occupation or annexation of Palestinian territory. But even mainstream opinion is wary about what might happen with a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the West Bank.
Israel also faces a leadership problem. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not the right person to credibly lead Israel into a new phase. He is deeply distrusted by a large number of voters, particularly as he would have to face criminal charges when he leaves office. On the eve of the Gaza war there were, for weeks, the largest-ever street protests in the country against what the liberal opposition see as Netanyahu’s attempts to erode democracy and judicial independence.
Elections must be held by 26 October next year but could be held earlier if the Knesset votes to dissolve itself, or if the budget does not get passed in May. Polls indicate that while Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest in the Knesset, he might not be able to put together a stable coalition party. Israel’s deep fractures and fragile coalitions could make the entire process around the Trump deal much more difficult.
There are multiple hurdles to a durable solution, but there is a strong impetus behind the Trump deal
The Trump deal has created a new reality in the Middle East. By their presence at Sharm El-Sheikh earlier this month, moderate Islamic countries from across the world showed that they want a new future in which extremism has no place and Israel is recognised. A retired Israeli Brigadier General, Amir Avivi, has compared the Sharm El-Sheikh meeting to the Yalta Conference attended by US President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin, three months prior to Germany’s defeat in 1945. At both meetings decisions were made on the future of the defeated entity, and on day-after issues and a new order.
There are still many hurdles, but at least there is now a next-day plan for Gaza. The new order is based on deals between the US and moderate Sunni Arab allies. It is a front for the fight against Iranian influence and Islamic extremism. Over the longer term the aim of the deal is to extend the Abraham Accords of 2020, under which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalised relations with Israel. The Sharm El-Shaikh vision is of a Dubai for the region, rather than one of perpetual war.
The accords seem to be solidly in place. No Arab countries cut ties with Israel during the Gaza war. And none joined South Africa in its action in the International Court of Justice to have Israel declared guilty of genocide.
Read more:
Solutions could well emerge on the ground. The assertion by clans in Gaza against Hamas points to a solution that could emerge in Gaza and in the West Bank: the creation of autonomous city states by Palestinians that would not pose the sort of existential threat to Israel of larger Palestinian entities.
And part of this new order is that the US may not give Israel the leeway it has had in the past. Moderate Sunni backers of the Palestinians could also impose deals on the Palestinians.
The fight in the countries at Sharm El-Sheikh is against fundamentalism and Iran. They are willing to impose solutions on the region to fight these battles.
*Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission