The Tories have waged the worst election campaign in living memory: Martin Ivens
At the Tory summer party, amidst grim political prospects, prominent Conservatives left early, while Home Secretary James Cleverly danced. The party faces potential historic losses in the upcoming election, with predictions of a devastating defeat. Polls show a significant decline in support, with Sunak criticized for his campaign decisions and leadership.
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By Martin Ivens
Half the Cabinet, minus Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, joined donors at the Tory summer party at London's elite Hurlingham Club on Thursday night. Amid the gathering political gloom, bigwigs made an early dash for the exit, although the host for the evening, Home Secretary James Cleverly, strutted his stuff on the dance floor. Attending as a guest, I had a sense of history in the making — waltzing in the ballroom on the Titanic as it began to sink.
Britain's Conservatives, the most successful, durable political party in the West that has governed the UK for two-thirds of the last century, is facing an unprecedented wipeout on July 4. Either that, or a large number of pollsters will be looking for new jobs on July 5.
After 14 eventful, often chaotic, years in power, the Tories were always going to be swimming against the tide, but the party is waging the worst election campaign in living memory. Sunak who "takes ultimate responsibility" for the mess, says "faith and duty" will guide him through. Many Tories have lost faith and precious few are showing a sense of duty.
A trio of MRP polls published on Thursday predicted the Tories will fare worse than they did in 1997 when they lost in a landslide to Tony Blair's Labour party. More in Common says the party may be reduced to 155 seats, although Savanta, emblazoned over the entire front page of the Tory house newspaper The Daily Telegraph, estimates that barely 53 will survive. Their previous worst was 156 seats in 1906 after making a hash of the Boer War.
Even Sunak may not escape the expected cull of Cabinet ministers. There are hardly two Conservative seats thought safe. The Times of London predicts the result will be "the worst in 100 years." Others beg to differ: "200 years," was the i newspaper's bid.
MRPs — short for Multilevel Regression and Poststratification polls — take a national sample to work out accurate estimates of support for candidates in single constituencies. In MRP polls, the Conservatives are down by 24 points over their last general election victory in 2019. That said, 200 seats in the Savanta poll were thought to be too close to call. The Conservative ministers and senior officials at the party's summer event also talked of a gap between the disastrous polls — and a less Labour-decided feeling of many voters they encounter. Undecided folk are the final straw to be clutched at.
However, in conventional polls the Conservatives are still limping along at 20 percent on average, down three points since the campaign began — the worst result for the party in British polling history. Labour at 41 percent are also down three points since the campaign began, but the Tories can take no comfort from that. Sunak is being forced to fight an unusual three-front war — to his left, Keir Starmer's Labour, to his right, the populists of Reform, and in the middle ground, the Liberal Democrats.
Reform, polling on average at 16 percent (up five points during the campaign) may win very few seats outright, but by taking votes from the Tories they will tip the balance to Labour in many marginal seats. The Lib-Dems poll at 11 percent, but in seats where they are second to the Conservatives, they are benefiting disproportionately from tactical Labour voters. That's how a first past the post or winner-takes-all voting system works — in 1931 it reduced Labour to 51 seats. It is likely to give the Tories a terrible beating.
Much of the blame for the party's current unpopularity can hardly be laid at Sunak's door. The prime minister inherits an infernal legacy. Years of austerity under David Cameron, Theresa May's failed Brexit deal, the Partygate rule-breaking of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss's tax cut and spend mini-budget conspire against him. Across the West, voters are punishing governments for the cost-of-living crisis, mass immigration and slow growth. Even in the booming US, President Joe Biden's position looks precarious.
Sunak's chances were slim from the outset. But he has played his poor hand very badly.
As with the English soccer team, you can't just blame the manager. Isaac Levido, the campaign strategist who cut his teeth in the rough and tumble of partisan Australian politics, is a battle-hardened professional who engineered the Tories' 2019 victory. It wasn't Levido's idea to call an election when the Tories were 20 points behind in the polls — and make the announcement in the pouring rain without an umbrella.
Sunak's disastrous decision to curtail his appearance at the D-Day landings commemorations attended by the leaders of the democratic West in order to record a TV interview was his own. Before popular outrage forced him to apologize, the PM told his interviewer that he had resented the time spent in Normandy.
Jim Messina, the Washington campaign veteran who masterminded Barack Obama's two triumphs and helped Cameron to victory in 2015, says he "can't tell you" what the Tory message is. Messina told Politico's Power Play podcast: "it's a party that's coming unglued at the seams and fighting with each other. And I don't think you can blame Isaac for that." The blame game for defeat has already started and would-be leadership successors are canvassing their colleagues' votes.
Sunak promised on the steps of Downing Street to lead a government with "integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level." Two party candidates are accused of using insider information to bet on the timing of the election, one of whom is married to the Conservative director of campaigns. Others at Tory HQ are said to be under investigation by the police. Every other day a former Tory MP, donor or business leader announces their defection to Labour publicly.
The Tories insist that their message about Labour planning post-election tax hikes is cutting through, but some think the threat of a catastrophic defeat might actually be more helpful in getting out the wavering loyalist vote. Grant Shapps, the defense secretary, talks about the threat of a Labour "supermajority." Michael Gove, levelling up secretary under Sunak, warns that a Labour landslide could allow Starmer to "rig the system" and create "a forever government" if he revives his pledge to give European Union citizens in the UK the vote.
It's a desperate last throw to plead with voters to spare the Tories from annihilation. But if it doesn't work, the Hurlingham Club dance floor will really be deserted next year.
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