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In any scenario there are winners and losers, and as the oil price bounces around $30, the same must be said. We’ve seen it bounce from $26 to $32 back to $30 in a matter of days but the long term decline sees the black gold at a 12-year low. And as in most industries when a price falls the producers feel the pinch while the consumers enjoy the benefits. But which nations and industries boom in a low oil price environment and who goes bust. The below article looks at the winners and losers. – Stuart Lowman
The plunge in oil prices is proving a boon for consumers and airlines, but is a bust for energy companies and producing nations, while complicating the jobs of central bankers worried about deflation.
“The principal losers of the drop in oil prices are exporting nations” whose revenues are plunging, said Denis Ferrand of Coe-Rexecode, a French think tank.
Gulf nations have put austerity measures in place in recent months, while Nigeria plans to step up borrowing.
But state budgets are not the only ones seeing red — energy companies are getting less for their product and seeing their share prices fall.
Last week Moody’s put 120 energy, metals and mining companies on review for ratings downgrade, warning that they face “rising financial stress with much lower cash flows”.
The share prices of energy companies have plunged, and their borrowing costs will climb as their credit ratings are downgraded.
Renewable energy companies are also among the losers as low prices mean there is little incentive to seek out alternatives.
While not losers, central bankers are facing more work. Falling oil prices, weighing on consumer prices, make it harder for them to ward off dangerous deflation.
Japan could announce further stimulus measures to encourage growth and inflation later in the week, and Mario Draghi has signalled further action in March by saying the European Central Bank is “not surrendering” in its efforts to raise inflation and that there are “no limits” to the actions it could take.
On the winners’ side, consumers in importing countries reap the benefits every time they fill up their car or home heating oil tanks. With more money jingling in their pockets after passing the filling station, consumers are spending more on other goods and services, providing a boost to growth at home.
Even if oil and gas producing regions in the United States are feeling the pain, overall the US economy is benefiting from lower energy prices.
Cheap fuel will also help prop up China’s slowing growth, while helping India keep expanding at a rate above 7 percent.
In Europe, low oil prices are also providing a considerable boost to growth.
Coe-Rexecode estimated in November that a quarter of the 1.5 percent growth the eurozone probably managed in 2015 was due to cheap oil. Another 0.3 percentage points was due to the lower value of the euro.
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
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