Covid-19 pandemic in pictures – updated graphs that matter to South Africans

By Douglas Parker*

The raw information for this report is sourced from the Worldometer Coronavirus Tracker on the internet. I source the data at 12.0 PM each day, NZ time. The data all relates to midnight the previous day.

• Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now:+- 5,493,000
• The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 51.8%
• The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 41.9%
• And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 6.3%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:

Top countries 24 May

• USA: 18,540
• Brazil: 16,220
• Russia: 8,599
• India: 7,113
• Peru: 4,205
• TOTAL 54,677 which is 73% of the world total

Trends in new cases worldwide

Total global cases today were: +- 94,710 taking the 7 day average to around 99,100.

This is another slight reduction in case numbers, with South America showing the highest. In the southern hemisphere sub group,

Australia recorded 3 new cases, South Africa a slight increase to 1,240 and New Zealand another 0. South Africa maintains its position at 18th in the world rank order. The focus today addresses the question "when will it end?" See the feature at the end of the graphs.

The Overall world trend continues with case numbers growing at around 100,000 per day.

Europe and North America have more or less the same number of Covid-19 cases.

South America and Africa are showing high rates of growth.

South America had the greatest number of new cases today.

Spain has the highest number of cases per 1 million population, at +-6,000.

Death rates vary widely, and Belgium has the worst death rate per 1 million population.

Case numbers continue to drop in Europe.Most are below 1,000 per day.

New Zealand has almost eradicated the virus, and Australia is not far behind.

South Africa's case growth rate is slowing slightly, so the peak may be in sight.

When will it end?

Perhaps the single most important question on everyone's mind. When will this pandemic end – when can life return to normal again? The destruction to the world economy has been immense, but we are yet to really see and feel the full implications, because most have been sheltered by governments throwing out relief packages.

It's hard to come up with any definitive answers because the pattern of the pandemic differs widely between countries, depending on a multitude of factors. What we know is that the pandemic started in Wuhan province in China, and spread rapidly across the world through people travelling between China and other countries initially, then from there, to other countries, with Italy being a key source.

China took decisive action immediately the virus was identified, and though they suffered a rapid rise in infections peaking within 2 weeks at some 3900 people, their strict actions paid dividends, and the virus was brought under control very quickly, and within 10 weeks of the first cases, was effectively eradicated.

Other countries have had different experiences. Some responded equally aggressively and brought the virus under control quickly, while others were slower to react and were perhaps not so aggressive in their approach, and others yet, who largely left it to the community to fend for themselves, with little intervention from a government point of view.

At the time of writing, there's a handful of countries that have reached or are close to ground zero. I have taken all of these, and examined the path the virus has followed in daily infection rates. What I have found, is that the quicker infection rates build to a peak, the quicker the path to eradication. The longer and flatter the curve to peak, the longer the path down to elimination.

I cannot explain why this is so. There are different regimes in different countries, there are different social mores, different living circumstances, different testing procedures, different health facilities, and different climates. The list is endless.

So I have merely taken my group of "mature" cases, and tracked the course of events. I then grouped them into 3 clusters based on the rate of growth shown in the initial phase up to peak.

A: Slow growth to peak.

B: Moderate growth to peak.

C: Rapid growth to peak.

But let me introduce you to these clusters:

A: includes: Canada, Japan, Sweden, Singapore, Iceland, France, United Kingdom.

B: includes: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Turkey, Israel, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg.

C:  includes Germany, Spain, China, Thailand, New Zealand, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia, and South Korea.

So what do these clusters show?

Days to reach Peak               Growth Rate

A: (Slow)           38                     10, 2%

B: (Medium)     24                     16, 9%

C: (Fast)            16                      27, 0%

Days to Second Peak             Growth Rate between Peaks

A: (Slow)           16                    0.4%

B: (Medium)     7                      0.3%

C: (Fast)             7                     -1.3%

Days to minimal cases         Growth rate to "end"

A: (Slow)          106                  -5.53

B: (Medium)    48                    -5.65

C: (Fast)            43                   -5.93

These rough estimates indicate that countries in groups B and C could expect to see their case numbers at nil or negligible levels by the second and first weeks in July respectively.

For countries in the (A) group, the wait will be a little longer, with indications showing the end of August/ first week of September being the end of the road.

Based on data to date, it would seem that South Africa fits into the (A) category, with a slow rise to peak, and a long period of reduction.

• Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.