Updated coronavirus graphs show SA’s case load continues to increase

By Douglas Parker*

The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. I source my  data at 12pm each day, NZ time. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)

Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 6,259,000

The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 48.6%

The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 45.4%

And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 6.0%

The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious /critical: 1.8%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:

Top countries 31 May

  • USA: 20,350
  • Brazil: 16,409
  • Russia: 9,268
  • Peru: 8,805
  • India: 8,782
  • TOTAL 63,614  which is 58.5% of the world total

Trends in new cases worldwide 

Total global new cases today were: +- 108,800 taking the 7 day average to around 109,500

A big drop in new cases today in Brazil and the USA, but Sundays are usually quieter. In Europe there was a big drop in France but the UK showed an increase. In the Southern Hemisphere sub group, Australia recorded 10 new cases, South Africa stable at 1,716 and remains 13th in world rank order. New Zealand recorded its tenth 0 in a row, and there is only one active case remaining.

The focus today is on the impact of the virus across the countries most affected, and the role of age and underlying conditions in relation to death rates.

The first graph shows that Spain, the USA and Belgium have the heaviest case load per million of population, With Belgium, France, Italy and the UK having the highest death rates.

The next graph is taken from a study of 72 314 cases in China, and shows the death rates by age. The incidence of death amongst people younger than 60 was negligible.

Amongst the same people, a comparison was made of those who had underlying conditions, against the total cases. This graph shows that underlying conditions played a major role affecting the outcome, with the number of deaths without underlying conditions being effectively zero.

This next graph comes from the New York Health Department, and was released on 13th May, showing the death rates amongst 15,230 cases. Again we see a skewing towards people over 65, and the strong correlation with underlying conditions. There was a fair number of people where the status of underlying conditions was unknown.

The graph below shows data released by the Department of health in South Africa on 28th May, and shows the distribution of cases across the age spectrum, of all recorded cases at that date.

The graph below shows the distribution of cases by age category, as well as the death rate recorded by age category. This highlights again the vulnerability of people over 60 years of age, and the relative impunity of younger people.

The graph following shows the distribution of cases across the provinces in South Africa, the recovery percentage and the percentage who have died. Take care reading this graph because it has a log scale on the Y axis because of the very high numbers in the Western Cape, and very low numbers in several other provinces.

South Africa’s case load continues to increase, but the daily growth percentage shows signs of beginning to reduce.

New Zealand has had 10 days with no new cases, but Australia is struggling to mop it up.

France added 1,828 cases on 30th May but only 257 today. The UK remains the odd one out with cases double the others major European countries.

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