By Douglas Parker*
The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. I source my data at 12pm each day, NZ time. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT).
- Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 6,561,000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 46.0%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 48.1%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 5.9%
- The percentage of active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.7%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:
Top countries 3rd June
- Brazil: 27,312
- USA: 20,317
- India: 9,633
- Russia: 8,536
- Chile: 4,942
- TOTAL: 70,740 which is 59% of the world total
Trends in new cases worldwide
Total global new cases today were: +- 120,000 taking the 7 day average to around 111,000
A slight increase in new cases today, with surges in several countries. In Europe figures were slightly higher, with the UK increasing to 1,871. In the Southern Hemisphere sub group, Australia recorded 8 new cases, South Africa a rise to 1,713 and down to 15th in world rank order. New Zealand recorded its thirteenth 0 in a row, and one active case remains.
Today we re-visit Trends in Sweden, and look at death rates by continent, while updating world figures.
After 4 days of declining results, figures increased slightly today.
The daily growth rate declined from its peak of around 6.5% per day, but then seemed to stabilize at some 5.5% instead of continuing to decline.
The chart below shows how actual results compare with forecasts in our simple analog model.
Comparing South Africa’s trend with Columbia (similar population numbers) shows that South Africa’s growth accelerated a little faster during the past 2 weeks.
Another zero day in New Zealand, and numbers averaging around 10 in Australia.
Slightly higher numbers in the European countries today, and France has revised its case numbers.
The number of recovered patients now exceeds the number of Active cases.
America still dominates with the greatest share of cases, at 1.9 million.
New infections growing most rapidly in Brazil, Peru Chile and Columbia in South America; South Africa and Egypt in Africa.
South America has the highest share of new cases, with Brazil having 27,000 new cases today.
New Zealand and Australia have the highest proportion of recovered patients.
India has the highest number of serious/critical patients in Asia at some 60% of that continent. Next highest is Iran with 18%.
The death rate in Europe and North America far exceeds the experience elsewhere in the world. The vast differences between countries is not fully understood.
After dropping to almost zero, Israel’s infection rate is climbing, while in Sweden the daily infection rate has been fairly constant, but kicked up strongly today.
While significantly higher than Israel, Sweden’s death rate is not as high as some other European countries.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
