By Douglas Parker*
The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. I source my data at 12pm each day, NZ time. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)
- Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 6,689,000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 45.9%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 48.3%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 5.9%
- The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious /critical: 1.7%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:
Top countries 4th June
- Brazil: 28,882
- USA: 21,854
- India: 9,889
- Russia: 8,831
- Pakistan: 4,801
- TOTAL: 74,257 which is 59% of the world total
Trends in new cases worldwide
Total global new cases today were: +- 125,000 taking the 7 day average to around 118,000
A slight increase in new cases today. In Europe figures were slightly higher, with the UK much the same at 1,805. In the Southern Hemisphere sub group, Australia recorded 11 new cases, South Africa surged to 3,267 and up to 10th in world rank order. New Zealand recorded its fourteenth 0 in a row, and one active case remains.
Today we re-visit trends in Sweden, and look at infection and death rates by continent and most affected countries.
After 5 days of stable/declining results there was a sharp rise, almost doubling the daily average.
The daily growth rate declined from its peak of around 6.5% per day, but then seemed to stabilize at some 5.5%.
The chart below shows how actual results compare with forecasts in our simple analog model.
Comparing South Africa’s trend with Columbia (similar population numbers) shows that South Africa’s growth accelerated a little faster during the past 2 weeks.
Fourteenth zero day in New Zealand, and numbers averaging around 10 in Australia.
Slightly higher numbers in the European countries today, and France has revised its case numbers.
The number of recovered patients now exceeds the number of Active cases.
America still dominates with the greatest share of cases, at 1.9 million.
New infections growing most rapidly in Brazil, Peru Chile and Columbia in South America; South Africa and Egypt in Africa.
South America has the highest share of new cases, with Brazil having nearly 29,000 new cases today.
New Zealand and Australia have the highest proportion of recovered patients.
India has the highest number of serious/critical patients in Asia at some 60% of that continent. Next highest is Iran with 18%.
The death rate in Europe and North America far exceeds the experience elsewhere in the world. The vast differences between countries is not fully understood.
After dropping to almost zero, Israel’s infection rate is climbing, while in Sweden the daily infection rate has been fairly constant, but kicked up strongly the past two days.
While significantly higher than Israel, Sweden’s death rate is not as high as some other European countries.
This chart shows the top 28 countries with populations in excess of 5 million, with the highest Covid-19 infection rates per million Population. Also plotted are the number of deaths per million population.
The graph below shows the number of cases at 28th May and the death rates by age at 3rd June in South Africa.
The graph following shows the distribution of cases in South Africa by province at 3rd June. Please note the Log scale.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
