Covid-19 pandemic in pictures: updated graphs that matter to South Africans

By Douglas Parker*

The raw information for this Covid-19 report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)

• The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 12 156 000
• The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 37.7%
• The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 57.8%
• And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 4.5%
• The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.3%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new Covid-19 cases over the past 24 hours:

Top Countries 8th July

• USA: 61 848
• Brazil: 41 541
• India: 25 571
• S Africa: 8 810
• Russia: 6 562
• TOTAL 144 332

68% of the world total

Trends in New cases worldwide

• Total global new cases today were: +- 213 000 taking the 7 day average to around 195 000
• Total cases thus growing by a million every 5 days
• North America’s share of world cases increasing with rampant growth in the USA
• New case numbers continue to reduce in Europe, with most countries seeing less than 400 per day
• Gauteng now exceeds the Western Cape in total cases, but Western Cape has very high infection rate
• Problems with secondary waves from returning citizens could prolong the resumption of international travel.

Average number of new Covid-19 cases are creeping up to exceed 200,000 per day worldwide.

Covid-19 snapshots

New cases in South Africa have averaged 9,000 a day for the past week.

The percentage growth in case numbers continues at around 5% a day in South Africa.

The peak this week was slightly higher than our forecast.

But on a 3 day average basis, actual results are very close to expectations so far.

When adjusted for population size, SA is presently on a par with Brazil.

The Western Cape’s case load has levelled, and Gauteng now has the heaviest Covid-19 burden.

The Western Cape also showing the highest death rate. Gauteng doing much better.

The Western Cape’s infection rate exceeds all countries except Qatar and Chile (see second graph below).

This chart shows the countries most affected by the virus to date.

A rampant spread of the Covid-19 virus in Melbourne has dashed hopes of an imminent “Tasman Bubble”.

All countries in Europe are showing a welcome reduction in cases.

Russia has the greatest number of total cases, but most are down to less than 400 per day.

In a surprising turn of events, Israel’s new case numbers are exceeding Sweden’s!

Total world cases are growing by a million every five days.

Since mid-June, North America’s share of new cases has consistently increased. Africa’s share also increasing.

• Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.

For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.