The world is changing fast and to keep up you need local knowledge with global context.
By Douglas Parker*
The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 13 691 000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 37.0%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 58.7%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 4.3%
- The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.2%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases over the past 24 hours:
Top Countries 15th July
- USA: 70 634
- Brazil: 39 705
- India: 32 682
- S Africa: 12 757
- Mexico: 7 051
- TOTAL: 144 332 70% of the world total
Trends in new cases worldwide
- Since the 15th June, there has been a surge of new cases from around 128 000 per day to an average of 216 000 this past week.
- Much of this is attributable to the USA where new case numbers have risen from around 21 000 per day some 70 600 yesterday. Possibly exacerbated by the wave of protests.
- The USA’s share of the world total new cases increased from 16.7% on 12th June to 32% on the 14th
- After almost eliminating the virus, there has been a major second wave in Israel, which appears to be blamed on complacency
- Australia is battling a strong resurgence in Victoria, initially caused by inadequate quarantine controls
- South Africa is seeing continuing high case numbers, putting it on a similar trajectory to Brazil where no lockdown was imposed.
Total global new cases today were: +- 232 000 taking the 7 day average to around 218 000
New cases in South Africa have averaged 12,000 a day for the past week.
Case number growth in South Africa showing some signs of easing from 5% per day.
New case numbers exceeded our model estimates last week, but may be slowing.
Actual total cases have risen slightly above our forecast for the past week.
When adjusted for population size, SA’s infection rate has edged past Brazil.
The Western Cape’s case load has levelled, and Gauteng now has the heaviest burden.
The Western Cape also showing the highest death rate. Gauteng doing much better.
The Western Cape’s infection rate is high by world standards.
This cart shows the countries most affected by the virus to date.
A rampant spread of the virus in Melbourne has dashed hopes of an imminent “Tasman Bubble”.
Most countries in Europe are showing a welcome reduction in cases. Spain is an exception.
Russia has the greatest number of total cases, but most are down to less than 400 per day.
Israel’s new case numbers are exceeding Sweden’s as complacency trumps caution.
Total world cases are growing by a million every 5 days.
Since mid-June, North America’s share of new cases has consistently increased.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.
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