The world is changing fast and to keep up you need local knowledge with global context.
By Douglas Parker*
- The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 15 364 000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 35.1%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 60.8%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 4.1%
- The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.2%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases over the past 24 hours:
Top Countries 22nd July
- USA: 71 656
- Brazil: 65 339
- India: 45 599
- S Africa: 13 150
- Colombia: 7 390
- TOTAL 203 134 73% of the world total
Trends in New cases worldwide
Total global new cases today were: +- 279 000 taking the 7 day average to around 240 000
- Infections in South Africa have reached a peak, and should now start declining
- In spite of Lockdown and other constraints, South Africa’s infection rate matches that of Brazil on a pro-rata basis.
- They had no lockdown in Brazil. This implies the genie was out the bottle before interventions were introduced, or that they were ineffective.
New cases in South Africa averaged 12,000 a day for the past two weeks. The peak is probably over.
Case number growth has slowed considerably as infections reached their peak & stabilized.
The model anticipated the peak correctly, but actual results were quite a bit higher.
Actual total cases exceeded our forecast over the past 2 weeks.
When adjusted for population size, SA’s infection rate now tracking higher than Brazil.
The Western Cape’s case load has levelled, and Gauteng now has the heaviest burden.
The Western Cape still showing the highest death rate. Gauteng doing much better.
The Western Cape’s infection rate is high by world standards.
This chart shows the countries most affected by the virus to date.
A rampant spread of the virus in Melbourne has dashed hopes of an imminent “Tasman Bubble”.
The case reduction in Europe has paused, with several countries seeing increases in cases.
Russia has the greatest number of total cases, but Spain, Romania, France & Germany seeing growth.
Israel’s new case numbers are exceeding Sweden’s as complacency trumps caution.
Total world cases are growing by a million every 4 days.
Since mid-June, North America’s share of new cases has steadily increased.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.
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