Inside Covid-19: SA deaths in context, may have peaked; IMF loan a “watershed”; Apple’s pandemic indicator. Ep 66

In Episode 66 of Inside Covid-19, we take a deep dive into what’s killing South Africans, including the relative impact of Covid-19; hear from the Africa partner of a major global law firm why the fine print will make yesterday’s IMF loan a game changer for the economy; we hear how the closing – and opening – of Apple stores is an accurate way to see how the virus is moving around the world; and insights into the working of herd immunity, a concept which some scientists believe will be required to before the Covid-19 pandemic peters out. – Alec Hogg

In today’s Covid-19 headlines:

  • The data on South Africa’s coronavirus pandemic is some encouraging signs for the first time since the pandemic hit the country in March. Although it remains too early to celebrate, the seven day moving average of new daily cases is now just above 11,000 have eased back markedly from a peak of 12,500 ten days ago. Active cases, ie reported infections net of recoveries and mortalities, are at 165,000, with the number having flattened around this level for almost two weeks. Data published by Johns Hopkins University puts SA into a distinctly declining curve with the analysts describing the trend as down. The seven day moving average on deaths, however, has not yet broken out of its upward trajectory, with a possible delay in reporting accounting for both the lower mortality rate – still only around a third of the global average – and the divergence with the infections curve. More on the subject, including some useful suggestions on how you can avoid becoming one of the statistics, coming up in this episode.
  • Globally, the number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus has risen above 17m, with 10.5m of them having recovered and 666,000 died – roughly 4% of reported cases. South African deaths are at 7,252 from 460,000 confirmed infections, a mortality rate of 1.5% or just over one third of the global average. The USA is far and away the hardest hit nation with just over 150,000 Americans now having succumbed, and 2.1m active infections, a hefty 36% of the global total. Brazil is next on the list with 89,000 deaths and almost 700,000 active cases, followed by India, Russia and then South Africa, which yesterday secured a $4.3bn emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to help fight the pandemic’s consequences.
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