The world is changing fast and to keep up you need local knowledge with global context.
By Douglas Parker*
The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer.
- The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 17 177 000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 33.9%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 62.2%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 3.9%
- The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.1%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases over the past 24 hours:
Top Countries 29th July
- Brazil: 70 869
- USA: 66 921
- India: 52 249
- S Africa: 11 362
- Colombia: 8 670
- TOTAL: 210 071 72% of the world total
Trends in New cases worldwide
Total global new cases today were: +- 290 000 taking the 7 day average to around 259 000
- Infections in South Africa have reached a peak, and are now declining
- New cases in the USA have stabilized at a high level
- Case numbers increasing in much of Europe, Asia and South America
The peak is over in South Africa and case numbers should continue to decline now.
Case number growth has slowed considerably as infections reached their peak & stabilized.
The DPA model anticipated the peak a week earlier and at 20% lower.
Actual total cases exceeded our forecast over the past 2 weeks.
When adjusted for population size, SA’s infection rate now very similar to Brazil.
The Western Cape’s case load has levelled, and Gauteng now has the heaviest burden.
Gauteng has the bulk of cases, but so far the death rate has been lower than the Cape Provinces.
The Western Cape’s infection rate is high by world standards.
This chart shows the countries most affected by the virus, with some having rates over 20 000/million.
The second wave in Victoria continues, while New Zealand has one or two every few days from returning residents.
The case reduction in Europe has paused, with the continent showing an overall increase in share.
This chart shows how the trends have changed across the European countries.
Russia has the greatest number of total cases, but Spain, Romania, France & Germany seeing growth.
Israel’s new case numbers are far exceeding Sweden’s as complacency trumps caution.
Total world cases are growing by a million every 4 days.
North America’s share of new cases has levelled as Asia & South America accelerate.
The severity of the virus seems to be reducing.
Though death rates per million continue to increase as the virus spreads.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.
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