Covid-19 pandemic in pictures: updated graphs that matter to South Africans

By Douglas Parker*

The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)

  • The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 18 956 000
  • The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 32.2%
  • The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 64.1%
  • And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 3.7%
  • The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.1%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases over the past 24 hours:

Top Countries 5th August

  • India: 56 626
  • USA: 54 728
  • Brazil: 54 685
  • Colombia: 10 735
  • S Africa: 8 559
  • TOTAL: 185 333  71% of the world total

Coverage includes a global and continental view, the countries most affected by the pandemic and then a regional focus with particular attention to Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, and an overview of the situation in the USA.

Trends in New cases worldwide

Total global new cases today were: +- 262 000 taking the 7 day average to around 254 000

World cases continue to grow at nearly 2 million per week.

New case growth in America has slowed in the past week. South America and Asia accelerating.

Continental shares of new cases show South America and Asia increasing their shares.

Global deaths have passed 700,000 and continue at a steady pace.

The downward trend in deaths reversed course early June, and are running at around 6 000 per day.

Deaths per million of population average 350 in Europe & the America’s 20 in Africa & Asia.

Deaths per case continue to show a reducing trend.

The proportion of cases deemed serious also shows a reducing trend.

The top 5 countries account for 59% of all Covid-19 cases.

The top five countries accounted for 71% of the world’s new cases yesterday, with the USA at 21%.

The three worst affected countries have had over 20,000 cases per million of population. The USA = 15 000, Brazil = 13 000, RSA = 9 000, Sweden = 8 000, Spain =7500

Belgium has highest death rate at 850. UK = 680, Spain = 610, Sweden 570, USA= 490, Brazil = 460

Infections in Europe are showing a sharp increase.

Spain has the greatest number of new cases today, France, UK & Germany also growing.

France has the highest number of active cases, but some countries do not disclose this data.

South Africa has reached its peak and new case numbers are falling.

On a pro-rata basis, South Africa’s performance is similar that of Brazil where there was no lockdown.

Results over the past 2 weeks have been within the pattern expected in our model.

Gauteng province has by far the greatest number of cases.

But the death rate in Gauteng has been lower than the Western Cape.

Testing has steadily reduced, as have the proportion of positive results per test.

The second wave battle continues in Australia with Victoria struggling to contain the virus. New Zealand has one or two cases in managed isolation from time to time, all returning residents.

New South Wales and the other states in Australia have a very low incidence of new cases.

Deaths in Australia have been very low, and almost exclusively elderly people.

The top four states account for 40% of all the cases in the USA.

Texas had the greatest new case load today.

Only a few countries appear to be safe to travel to …

  • Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/. Stats, as of 6 August.

For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.

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