Russian Roulette: Body doubles and double bluffs
"Wagner founders go down in flames"
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By Chris Steyn
In another day of Dosteyevskian developments, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his commander Dmitry Utkin were apparently on the passenger manifesto of a private plane that crashed north of Moscow after it exploded mid-flight yesterday (Wednesday).
But as military sources point out the Russians are masters of subterfuge and illusion – and one would be wise to take nothing at face value. And then of course, there is the story of a second Wagner-linked plane that travelled safely to its destination.
In the meantime, these are the answers given to questions BizNews posed to military sources:
Why was his plane shot down now? He has been flying back and forth between St Petersburg and Moscow for a while without incident?
It is all very uncertain. However, if it was shot down, then the anti-aircraft teams would have been instructed to do so as it was a domestic flight from Moscow to St Petersburg.
If it was a bomb, then again, it would have been authorised as aircraft are invariably checked by technicians, pilots, etc before take-off so it would have been hidden.
Rumours of a case of wine being the bomb are of course possible. But if it was a bomb onboard, the explosion would have been very different and it wouldn't have just taken a wing off as videos show. Also, with a bomb, the debris would have been scattered over a wider area – assuming it was a large bomb.
Ultimately, who knows – maybe this was all just a ploy to let him leave and live quietly somewhere voluntarily. Speculations will now become rife…but Prigozhin has been known to use body doubles as well.
How are the apparent deaths of the two Wagner Group founders going to affect its operations in Africa, specifically in CAR where it has a big presence?
In the short term, Prigozhin and Utkin's death is unlikely to affect the Central African Republic or anywhere else for that matter.
A change in the structure of Wagner, or its relationship to the state would take some time to move through the bureaucratic system but it is certain the Kremlin would want to exercise more authority over it, especially in terms of its media attacks on the Russian Army and Minister of Defence.
And for many reasons, some of the key figures representing the PMC in CAR will remain in their posts, not least because they have the relationships, the networks and institutional knowledge that keeps operations in CAR going.
For Moscow, it is important to show that Russia is not isolated geopolitically, and Africa has become more important to that narrative even if trade numbers and other metrics with the continent are lower than what the discourse suggests.
Moscow will seek to retain its credibility among African partners. So it's unlikely that we will see a sudden drawdown of Russian personnel from CAR (or Mali).
Bangui will accept the form of security provision they get. Luckily for the CAR government, armed groups continue to be in a weak position and cannot take advantage of any discord within Wagner (which is unlikely in theatres of operation). The referendum went smoothly, and President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has some breathing room to watch events unfold.
Will the Russian State now take formal ownership of its "Shadow Army" in Africa?
It may well be the case, but we see little interest from the State to formally take ownership over what Wagner has built in Africa.
However, the Kremlin will also not sacrifice the hold Wagner has over strategic resources in CAR or elsewhere.
The structure will remain in place, though how the pie is divided may change.
In fact, the loss of such a media-hungry boss may make the organisation more effective not less. Some Wagner fighters may regard him as a martyr if he indeed died – and so will his public following in Russia.
It will be very interesting to see how this is handled by the Kremlin.
Was the Wagner march on Moscow real or staged?
It is unlikely it was staged as it had a dramatic reputational impact on the Kremlin, degraded morale within Russian Force in Ukraine, boosted morale within the Ukrainian army, and generally highlighted the Kremlin's problems in its war in Ukraine.
It is known that the disagreements between Wagner and the Minister of Defence's conduct of the war created tensions and threats.
Also, remember that many people joined the Wagner convoy on its way to Moscow and also showered them with praise as they conducted their advance.
Russian forces did, according to media reports, bomb parts of the convoy.
Although the advance eventually – apparently voluntarily – ended as a result of intervention by senior Russian officers, it seems those officers have also either taken extended leave or disappeared.
Are there other Russian PMCs that could take Wagner's place?
It is unlikely Wagner will disappear in the short to medium term. They have an extensive footprint in Africa that Russia will instead seek to exploit and not destroy.
Wagner members may be offered new leadership by quiet Kremlin intervention but one that will not engage in public debates of spats with President Vladimir Putin and his ministers.
However, it is known that the Minister of Defence, Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, has his own PMC.
There are also several other Russian PMCs that are lesser known. These may be used to bolster current Wagner forces in Africa, and over time, ensure that Wagner undergoes a name change.
If Prigozhin was indeed killed, what will the impact be on Ukraine?
Obviously, he was well known in Ukraine as his company was used in some of the most brutal assaults, especially in the Bakhmut area, despite suffering massive casualties.
If he is indeed dead, it will certainly be something the Ukrainians will rejoice about.
But, no doubt they will want proof that he is indeed dead.
However, don't expect too much, too soon as any CEO of a company that dies usually has a chain of command that will step in. The question is, however, how will they divide the pie?
No doubt a lot of theories, conspiracy or otherwise will now flood the media.
Until absolute proof if his death is available, it will be pointless to make assumptions of what will happen.
But whatever does happen, it will be controlled by the Kremlin.
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