Putin’s long game, Prigozhin’s appetite for Africa, and provocation on the Polish border…

BizNews has received a photograph of a soldier with a Wagner Group badge taunting Poland with his arrival on its border. Another photograph shows a Wagner badge being held up next to the “Polenska” sign. BizNews has also received Flight Tracker maps showing a private plane, believed to belong to Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin flying from St. Petersburg to Belarus and departing again a day later. We ask Andrei Kebkalo, the founder of the Omega Consulting Group (OCG) in Ukraine, for his take of these developments. He speaks about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long-term goal of building a Russian Empire, Wagner’s big appetite for Africa, and Ukraine’s lack of manpower in a long war which he sees as only the beginning. – Chris Steyn

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Relevant timestamps from the interview

  • 00:00 – Introductions
  • 00:38 – Andrei Kebkalo on a soldier in Wagner insignia being photographed at the Polish border
  • 02:29 – Kebkalo on Yevgeny Prigozhin’s flights to and from Belarus
  • 05:18 – On Prigozhin’s power and influence in Russia despite his attempted coup
  • 06:08 – On Wagner offering assistance to the coup in Niger
  • 06:32 – On Putin’s strategy behind provoking NATO at the Polish border
  • 07:41 – On violations of Polish airspace
  • 08:43 – On what military provocation from either side would result in
  • 09:50 – Are Wagner independent from Russia?
  • 11:51 – On the Suwałki gap
  • 13:24 – On Putin’s long-term strategy
  • 16:12 – On progress towards a Ukrainian counter-offensive
  • 18:30 – On whether the Ukraine government will use Western funding to bolster its military
  • 19:34 – On Ukraine’s manpower
  • 21:32 – Concludes

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Highlights from the interview

BizNews has received a photograph of a soldier with a Wagner Group badge taunting Poland with his arrival on its border. Another photograph shows a Wagner badge being held up next to the “Polenska” sign.

The Wagner’s Group’s plans to head towards Poland was revealed to BizNews last week by Andrei Kebkalo, the founder of the Omega Consulting Group (OCG) in Ukraine.

In an update this week on Wagner’s latest moves, Kebkalo says: “I know that at least 100 Wagner personnel moved towards Polish border, but officially, let’s say, it’s a training mission…What we see now is basically, I would say, intimidation. 

Read more: Putin’s “Shadow army” – Wagner – On the move again…

“…I don’t think that Wagner will invade Poland now because they don’t have any resources for that in terms of personnel…like manpower and any equipment, but it’s basically a provocation and intimidation. 

“Wagner is actually an intimidation tool…it’s like a message: ‘If you don’t agree with us, then you will have Wagner. You know, Wagner is not only a military tool now. It’s a tool of propaganda. It’s a tool of intimidation…So yeah, it’s just a message that (says) ‘Look, we’re here. We told you we will be at the border. Now we’re here’. And what will be the next step? This is unknown.”

BizNews has also received Flight Tracker maps showing a private plane, believed to belong to Wagner’s former leader Yevgeny Prigozhin flying from St. Petersburg to Belarus and departing again a day later.

Commenting on this, Kebkalo says: “I didn’t follow him, but I know that Prigozhin was flying back and forth…Belarus and Russia, specifically Minsk and St. Petersburg, something like five to seven times. So he’s up to something. It’s always the same direction: Minsk, St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Minsk. What’s he up to? What’s he doing? I don’t know. But definitely he’s discussing something with people in Russia. 

“And I suspect that it’s related to what’s happening now in Africa. Because Wagner is basically heavily involved now in African operations. Prigozhin is not hiding anything about Africa. He’s clearly telling that Wagner Group… will move now towards Africa  – and they have a big appetite for this Continent. 

“So I suspect that some people will stay in Belarus for training missions and provocations…just run on the border and take a picture and possibly cross the border and come back again. But majority of this personnel will potentially move towards Africa in the nearest future. 

“Well, this is what Prigozhin said. He made a statement. It’s not something that I assume. I mean, I read his statement. He says that: ‘Yes, guys, get ready. Something big is happening and we’re moving towards Africa’. He also added by the end that if it will be necessary, then Wagner will return to the battlefield in Ukraine.”

Asked to comment on an arial photograph indicating an apparent violation of Polish airspace, Kebkalo says: “…in Belarus, they say that it was an accident, but again, you have paramilitary personnel at the border taking pictures at the border, then a couple of days later an aircraft goes into your airspace…

“…So it is basic recce. You know, what you will do if, for example, a couple of Wagner personnel will go into your territory? What you will do? You know, so they just test it. They’ve been doing this before with other countries as well. With Georgia; they did it with Ukraine before the full-scale war.”

Read more: Putin’s BRICS dream, Ramaphosa’s nuke nightmare, Wagner’s new leader and the long war…

Meanwhile, Kebkalo warns that the war in Ukraine is only a stepping stone to the achievement of Putin’s ultimate aim of building a Russian Empire. 

“Ukraine is the conflict that’s already ongoing. But now we’re talking about Belarus as well and the Baltic states. Basically Putin will try to collect all these 15 republics. That’s his idea, to restore at least a Soviet Union.

“And it doesn’t matter how long it’s going to take. If he will have to destroy Ukraine, he will destroy Ukraine and rebuild it from the scratch… This conflict is for years and years and years – and I think that we are only at the beginning now. For them it’s a conflict against the collective West…He is busy building a Russian Empire. So he will not stop.”

In his latest update on the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Kebkalo says: “According to the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, we managed, on one portion of the battlefield…to break through the first line of Russian defence. But again, it’s very difficult. We’re losing a lot of people. We’re losing a lot of equipment….

“Both sides they sustain significant losses, the only difference (being) that Russians can replace it much quicker than Ukrainians because like I say, the Russians, they send troops, you know, wave after wave. …This is a long war and we just don’t have a manpower…. the West, they can supply Ukraine with weapons and equipment, but nobody can supply the manpower.”

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