ANC slumps to 37% in SRF poll, Cronje outlines what may lie after May 29

Polling results released today by the Social Research Foundation show a continued slide in support for SA’s ruling political party. SRF chairman Dr Frans Cronje says the poll’s conclusions on the impact of Jacob Zuma’s MKP are consistent with what has been reported in other recent polls. The newcomer’s current 13% slice has established it as SA’s third biggest political party behind the ANC and Democratic Alliance (25%). Cronje outlines the possible alternatives for politicians, and by extension all South Africans, in the unlikely event that these figures are held in the next 49 days. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.

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Summary of the interview between Frans Cronje and Alec Hogg

In this conversation between Alec Hogg and Dr. Frans Cronje, an overview of South Africa’s political landscape and upcoming elections is provided. Dr. Cronje, an independent political and economic advisor, discusses recent research findings indicating a decline in support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), with projections placing them at 37%. The Democratic Alliance (DA) and the newly formed MK party led by former President Zuma are emerging as significant contenders, garnering 25% and 13% respectively.

The conversation delves into potential scenarios and strategies for the upcoming election. Dr. Cronje explains the appeal of Zuma’s party, attributing it to his positioning as a champion of the marginalized, resonating with disenchanted ANC supporters. Moreover, geopolitical factors, including alleged foreign funding of political parties, are discussed, highlighting South Africa’s strategic importance on the global stage.

Dr. Cronje outlines potential outcomes, including a minority ANC government supported by opposition parties or a government of national unity. He emphasizes the importance of securing the urban middle-class vote for political stability and economic growth, suggesting potential coalition formations that align with long-term strategic objectives.

Overall, the conversation provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics shaping South Africa’s political landscape and the critical decisions facing its political actors in the run-up to the elections.

Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg [00:00:09]

Our guest today is Dr. Frans Cronje, independent political and economic advisor, and chairman of the board of the Social Research Foundation. Frans, your contributions to BNC#6 were well received. We’ve seen a lot of interest in your talk and Q&A session. On the 15th of May, you’ll be opening our conference in London, just two weeks before the national election. Today, though, we’re eager to hear the latest numbers and insights on the political landscape, particularly regarding the ANC’s performance.

Frans Cronje [00:01:11]

It’s been a tough day. Our latest study, based on 1800 respondents, shows the ANC at 37%, with the DA at 25%, and Mr. Zuma’s party at 13%. These numbers align with trends we’ve observed over the past year, with Mr. Zuma’s influence pulling the ANC down. Other methodologies have produced different results, but the overall trend remains consistent.

Alec Hogg [00:03:29]

Let’s discuss Zuma and the MK party. There are claims of foreign funding, notably from Russia. How do you interpret this geopolitical influence?

Frans Cronje [00:04:21]

South Africa’s geopolitical significance makes it a target for global powers. The South Atlantic’s strategic value is immense. Zuma’s appeal lies in positioning himself as a champion of the marginalized, resonating with disenchanted ANC supporters.

Alec Hogg [00:06:09]

Geopolitics plays a significant role globally. How do you explain the surge in support for MK?

Frans Cronje [00:06:47]

MK’s rise stems from Zuma’s appeal to certain political constituencies, tapping into frustration with the ANC’s leadership. Our past research indicated a sizable portion of ANC supporters were disenchanted and seeking alternatives.

Alec Hogg [00:11:29]

With seven weeks until the election, what scenarios should we consider?

Frans Cronje [00:12:12]

The focus should be on how politicians respond to the numbers. If the ANC’s support dips below 45%, they may need to form alliances with larger parties. Options include a minority ANC government or a government of national unity. The outcome hinges on negotiations and compromises.

Alec Hogg [00:25:29] Y

our insights shed light on the complex political landscape. Thank you, Dr. Cronje, for sharing your expertise.

Frans Cronje [00:25:29]

It’s been my pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity to discuss these important issues.

*The above transcript has been condensed and paraphrased for brevity and clarity, and may not capture the full context or nuances of the original interview with Frans Cronje.

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