Ansara on Election’24 early results: ANC slide, MK boom – coalitions, Stateproofing in SA’s future
With around a fifth of the votes counted, Free Market Foundation CEO David Ansara offers some early conclusions on South Africa's historic Election'24. With the ANC set to lose 60 of its 230 seats (of 400 in total), Jacob Zuma's well funded MK and to a lesser extent the breakout Patriotic Alliance parties disrupting the status quo, the country well on the road to coalition politics. Ansara offers some thoughts on who the partners might be – and explains why Stateproofing is an even more appropriate strategy given the political turbulence which awaits. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
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Summary of the interview
This interview captures a dynamic discussion between Alec Hogg and David Ansara, reflecting on the surprising developments in the South African 2024 election. Notably, the ANC is facing significant losses in parliament, potentially dropping to around 170 seats from 230. Early results indicate a shift in urban votes, with parties like the DA and EFF MK showing unexpected strength. Ansara highlights the emergence of the MK party and its impact on ANC votes in KZN, possibly driven by personal popularity and ethnic sentiments.
As the conversation delves into potential coalitions and the decline of ANC hegemony, various scenarios are explored, including the possibility of the ANC forming alliances with smaller parties to maintain power. The DA's role as an anti-corruption advocate is emphasized, suggesting alternative coalition strategies to prevent entanglement with ANC malfeasance. Overall, the discussion underscores the complexity of South African politics, signaling a new era of coalition-building and the need for citizens to build resilience independent of state influence.
Edited transcript of the interview
00:06.08 – Alec Hogg: Well, election 2024 in South Africa is already throwing up some surprises. It appears to have been a better turnout than most people were anticipating. And there's some surprise packages in all of us. Not those that people have suggested. Chaos on the political front. The ANC at the moment is tracking to lose 60 of its seats in parliament, down from 230 to around 170.
00:57.04 – Alec Hogg: But let's see what David Ansara, the chief executive of the Free Market Foundation, is making of this.
01:40.334 – David Ansara: Yeah, well, Alec, it's great to be with you as always, but and still very early days. I was a bit trepidatious when you invited me to this interview, which we're recording just before one o'clock on Thursday. The dust is still yet to settle on these results. But I think there's some interesting trends that are emerging. I'd be happy to give you my from the hip analysis. But, you know, I think Chu -Yin Lai, who is very famous Chinese politician. He was once asked what his thoughts were on the effect of the French Revolution and he said it's still too soon to tell. So I think it's too soon to tell with these elections here in South Africa.
01:54.062 – Alec Hogg: Indeed it is, but let's go into the results dashboard because that's really we as the public look at this. And can you see it on your screen now, David?
01:57.168 – David Ansara: Yes I can there Alec. Sorry I just lost you for a second there.
01:58.766 – Alec Hogg: Okay. When we have a look at that as members of the public, as you can see there, it's under 20% of the votes have been counted. But what is interesting is the ANC is now very decidedly below 50%. The DA seems to be holding its own. It's only one fifth, we're only a fifth of the way there. A thousand meter race, we're 200 meters in.
02:43.888 – David Ansara: Well, look, I think it's always important to note that the early results tend to come from the urban constituencies. So there tends to be quite a big surge in the beginning of the vote counts for urban parties, most notably the DA, that tend to perform there. I think the big takeaway story is going to be the MK party and to what extent MK is eating into existing ANC votes.
05:01.744 – David Ansara: And bear in mind that the ANC campaigned quite stridently in KZN. I mean, they were effectively camped out there in KZN for the week preceding the elections. And so I think they knew what was at stake, but even those last ditch efforts weren't enough to help them over the line.
06:11.568 – Alec Hogg: Well, it is interesting. We've got that up on the screen now. Only 7% of the votes. So not even one tenth of the vote has been counted. But my goodness, MK has made a terrific start.
07:25.584 – David Ansara: Well, look, there were a lot of new kids on the block. So I think during 2021, Action SA enjoyed a kind of a swing of support. It was also then a new arrival. But just my impression was that they seemed to lose a bit of momentum. I think maybe a lot of disaffected Dier voters might have gone with Rizam Zanzi or Vosa.
09:34.48 – David Ansara: I think this, I think, is we're entering into a period of fragmentation in South African politics. And R.W. Johnson at the business conference earlier in the year, he said that what we're seeing is the secularization of South African politics, that the old loyalties are starting to weaken people voting according more to their interests or their identity or other concerns rather than.
09:56.11 – Alec Hogg: Well, the big provincial debate in the Western Cape is can the DA hold on to its majority in the province?
11:04.592 – David Ansara: Look, I think it's possible that they'll hold on to that majority.
13:26.448 – David Ansara: And I think the glue that holds the ANC together is patronage, access to resources, and then there's this ideological component as well, the National Democratic Revolution.
14:26.126 – Alec Hogg: It's an extraordinary story that we are witnessing here in South Africa.
15:31.216 – David Ansara: Yeah, I guess the big question is, will the multi-party charter constituent parties, will they be able to hold together in the face of what I'm sure will be very tempting offers from the ANC to various parties.
17:56.24 – David Ansara: This is a sort of a thin confidence in supply agreement.
18:38.774 – Alec Hogg: I've put up on the screen as things stand right now, a very rough indication of the seats that would be allocated.
20:11.024 – Alec Hogg: Just a final take, if I interpret it properly, we are going to have coalitions.
21:01.262 – Alec Hogg: Stateproofing means, well, it's entertainment, but it isn't going to impact your life that strongly. David Ansara is the chief executive of the Free Market Foundation. I'm Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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