Frans Cronjé: GNU is the real deal, could be generational – if ’26, ’27 speed bumps are avoided

Political scientist and chairman of the SRF, Dr Frans Cronjé, described SA’s post-election choices as taking the high road to prosperity or the Chernobyl Option. Three months on, the outcome most South Africans wanted is becoming ever more firmly entrenched. In this interview with BizNews editor Alec Hogg, Cronjé explains why the GNU is sustainable until at least next year – and identifies two significant obstacles thereafter, which, if surpassed, will define responsible governance for a generation.

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Edited Transcript

Alec Hogg (00:12.268)
Well, this has been the week for catching up with the biz news favorites. Earlier in the week, we spoke with Rob Hersov today, Dr. Frans Cronje.

Alec Hogg (00:30.54)
It’s incredible week, an incredible two months since we’ve had the government of national unity installed. Franz, you were so involved in the run-up to it. I’d like to kick off with a statement Corne Mulder made last week when we interviewed him. He said after the 29th of May, everything changed, referring to the coalitions.

The Democratic Alliance and Freedom Front Plus are no longer such good friends in various areas. Now, we’re seeing an astonishing change in the approach by Herman Mashaba’s Action SA, where he really can cause a lot of damage, and in his mind, make a lot of improvements by switching sides. Is this usual in new dispensations with coalitions?

Frans Cronje (01:25.735)
Yeah, I think we should anticipate moments of tension and conflict. But you’ve got to weigh those against the substance of the GNU deal. I’d be famously wrong if I got this wrong, but I think the deal is so solid that it will survive smaller conflicts and tensions around it.

The deal was very popular among South Africans, even before it was struck. Among ANC voters, 60% thought a deal between the ANC and DA would be favorable. The same was true for DA voters. The idea that this was a great sacrifice by the ANC or a forced, unpopular deal is false.

Frans Cronje (03:48.445)
Structurally, this deal works well. At a certain level, it’s a government of national unity. But the deal represents more—it’s a deal between the established and aspirant middle classes in SA. For the ANC, this deal is necessary for survival. The rural base is diminishing, and the ANC can’t easily break into the established middle class due to their experience over the past decade.

But the aspirant middle class and established middle class have the same desires—stability, economic growth, job creation, and revenues for social protection programs. So, when conflicts arise, expect them. This is not a flimsy deal, but a carefully crafted one that serves both parties and the country. There will be serious bumps ahead, but for now, it should survive.

Alec Hogg (07:37.302)
It’s so interesting how you’ve unpacked that. My experience through going to Davos for many years is seeing people within the government spectrum who get a bad press. It’s like what’s happening in China with MacPherson and Steenhuisen. Their wide-eyed reaction shows why the ANC engages so closely with China.

Frans Cronje (08:34.557)
Yes, the China trip has been a great success, and the comments from the South Africans are reassuring. When asked if the GNU will hold, I sometimes add this: the risk might not be that it breaks up, but that both sides find so much in common that they can’t pull apart again. For now, it’s a good thing. The idea that the GNU is a doomed compromise isn’t true. There’s a chance the two sides will get along so well that political contestation might be limited.

Alec Hogg (10:16.31)
Did you think this GNU was a possibility before the election? You did mention a high road or Chernobyl option.

Frans Cronje (10:49.317)
I did think it was possible. There were spoilers around who would try to break the deal, understanding its potential sustainability. But the chief negotiators conducted themselves pragmatically despite differences in history, ideology, and politics. What made it remarkable is that they acknowledged these differences but still found common ground. The media often exacerbates differences in South Africa, but this deal worked because of the emphasis on what unites us.

Frans Cronje (13:14.877)
We knew the deal was popular, and it was strategically in the best interest of the ANC. From the DA’s perspective, the deal was essential because without it, they risked irrelevance. If the ANC collapsed further, the DA wouldn’t have had a partner to form a majority. So, both sides needed this deal to avoid annihilation.

This is arguably the only deal the country could have made to survive as a unitary state. We’re fortunate it happened. I tell my American friends that here, we had an election, the loser accepted the result, and a bipartisan deal was struck. That’s rare in the world today.

Alec Hogg (16:19.488)
Let’s move to a flashpoint in Chwani. The sense was that the GNU would trickle down to the metros. But in Gauteng, it seems to be falling apart, particularly in Chwani. What’s happening there?

Frans Cronje (16:55.941)
Gauteng is the ANC’s rebel province. It hasn’t easily gone along with the national coalition. There’s an effort to create an alternative to the national GNU and replace Ramaphosa with someone who would do a deal with the EFF and MK. Gauteng’s leadership has decimated ANC support in the province, and it’s become a focal point for stress in the coalition.

Frans Cronje (19:15.837)
Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, those will be stress tests for the GNU. If the ANC does poorly in the 2026 local election, it will strengthen dissidents who argue the deal isn’t in their favor. But if the coalition can pass these two tests, it stands a strong chance of lasting for a generation.

Alec Hogg (20:33.932)
So, for now, good progress, but with some bumps ahead. Back to Tshwane—what’s your take on that?

Frans Cronje (20:45.703)
I try to avoid soap-opera-level politics, but I think it’s regrettable that Action SA didn’t fully realize its potential to compete on the urban periphery. It often focused its efforts on conflict with the DA, and that’s reflected in the current struggles in Tshwane.

Alec Hogg (22:05.516)
If they make the wrong moves, surely they’ll be punished in the next election.

Frans Cronje (22:09.799)
Yes, severely. Action SA’s strategy hasn’t been as effective as it could have been.

Alec Hogg (22:26.644)
Lastly, I spoke with Songhezo Zibi of Rise Mzansi. There was excitement around them, but they didn’t perform as expected. Now, he’s talking about bringing together smaller parties. What do you think?

Frans Cronje (22:55.165)
The smaller parties underperformed because their strategies didn’t appeal to a significant voter base. Gayten McKenzie, however, is someone to take seriously—he’s got strategic sense and demonstrated what a startup can do with a well-thought-out strategy. It’s not that small parties can’t succeed, but they need strategies that resonate beyond a narrow circle.

Alec Hogg (24:46.422)
Dr. Frans Cronje, political scientist, chairman of the Social Research Foundation. I’m Alec Hogg from Biznews.com.

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