By-election trends: Good news for Gayton; bad news for JZ, Julius; the DA’s “rocky road”; and the ANC’s big Gauteng worry…

In this interview with BizNews, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman gives BizNews viewers an overview and in-depth analysis of the performances of main political parties in municipal by-elections since last year's national election. Sports, Arts and Culture Minister Gayton McKenzie's Patriotic Alliance (PA) emerges as "probably the most consistently improving party"; the Democratic Alliance (DA) has had a rocky road"; the African National Congress (ANC) has recovered "some support…mainly at the expense" of former President Jacob Zuma's MKP which has suffered some "staggering drops"; the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) was "one of the most consistently improving" parties until it "ran into some potholes" towards the end of 2024, but recently won a seat off the ANC – and could be poised to do well in 2026; and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has "typically declined", but recovered some support in a raft of by-elections in the mining belt of Thabazimbi in Limpopo. .Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Chris Steyn (00:01.418).Every municipal ward counts. That is the regular reminder from election analyst Wayne Sussman, who is here to tell us how the main political parties have performed since the national election. Welcome, Wayne..Wayne Sussman (00:15.362).Thank you, Chris. It's great to be here and make my debut on business..Chris Steyn (00:20.472).Please give us an overview of what has happened over the last 10 months in terms of by-elections for those big parties, especially in the GNU..Wayne Sussman (00:29.782).Thank you. So let's take a step back and remember what happened in late May 2024. It was an unprecedented election. Up until that election, we had seen the ANC decline by four percentage points in each election since 2009. And in this particular election, they fell 18 percentage points just below the 40% mark, which meant, as you said in your introduction, that there needed to be a coalition formed, which ended up being the Government of National Unity. In that election, we also saw the Democratic Alliance, the second largest party in South Africa, arrest some of its declines, but exhibit limited growth, but it was some growth. And we saw the third largest party, led by Julius Malema, the Economic Freedom Fighters, who some pundits saw as the president-in-waiting, decline..The big story of the election was the Umkhonto we Sizwe party, which in a very short space of time became the third largest party in South Africa, Jacob Zuma's Umkhonto we Sizwe becoming the most popular party and the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal, making deep inroads in Mpumalanga where they became the second largest party, and also doing well in pockets of Gauteng, particularly where there are Zulu voters. .And then just finally, we did see people like…BizNews viewers, one of their favourite politicians, Gayton McKenzie and the Patriotic Alliance do really well. This is a party that's been around for some time and they emerged strongly. And of course, the Inkatha Freedom Party, which despite the massive rise of Umkhonto we Sizwe, were also able to grow. So I just wanted to set the scene.. So what we have seen since the 2024 election is very, very interesting..Wayne Sussman (02:22.966).So first of all, let's deal with the ANC. The ANC in the 2024 election were very dependent on provinces like the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. Now, these are rural provinces, but these are also the provinces which are the fourth and fifth most, when it comes to voters, populated provinces in the country. So there are a fair number of voters there. And what we see is that the ANC vote share in these rural provinces continues to remain firm and that extends to the North West as well, by the way, continues to remain firm for the ANC and will be critical …in the roads ahead. So that is to do with the ANC. We've also seen them recover some support, but not all support in KwaZulu-Natal. And this will be critical in the road to the 2026 local government elections. .We're in a very interesting stage right now. We are in the year between South Africa's two major elections. Last year was our national election. Next year is our local government election. .So the ANC has recovered some support, mainly, of course, mainly at the expense of Umkhonto. And this will be good for the party as they forge ahead in 2025. .However, while you're recovering some support. we've got to remember that right now, even though the ANC fell to below the 20% mark in KwaZulu-Natal, they've got hundreds and hundreds of councillors sitting across KwaZulu-Natal getting a middle class salary, wondering, saying, look, we are recovering somewhat in the by-elections, but this new big new kid on the block, who seem, and we're going to get to them soon, I'm sure, Chris, Umkhonto, says we're all having some problems are still likely to be a big factor..Wayne Sussman (04:19.762).….very very interesting just one thing very quickly on the ANC I think.We've just seen that they've reformed their task team for Gauteng to lead the Gauteng province, also in KwaZulu. .The province which would worry the ANC the most right now would be Gauteng. I currently sit in the City of Johannesburg. We know that this is where most of the media in South Africa is. We know that the media can have an influence in the election. Generally, the reporting of the City of Johannesburg, which is the most, the largest metropolitan area; a lot of major businesses are headquartered here. The most popular city in the country has major challenges. There's an ANC mayor in charge now, I think that'll have negative effect in the ANC. .Just one other point. And I know it's quite far from BizNews land in the Western Cape. The Emfuleni municipality, which for your fun fact for the day is the largest, most populous non-metropolitan municipality in the country, the Vanderbijlpark area, is another municipality which has great dysfunction. .I think these two municipalities will weigh the ANC down on the road to 2026 and in 2026..So just to sum up on Gauteng, on the ANC, good news in the rural areas, some recovery in Kwa-Zulu-Natal, worry in the most populous province of the country, Gauteng..Chris Steyn (05:54.252).Okay, on to the Democratic Alliance, please..Wayne Sussman (05:59.576).Sure. just again, it's very important when you do analysis to take a step back. Generally in coalitions, and we've just, by the way, we've seen something similar to this in Germany. I can think of many other countries in the Netherlands where the senior junior coalition party, if that makes sense, are the second largest party in the coalition, generally does worse in the next election. Not always, but generally does worse. .And when the Democratic Alliance was negotiating the Government of National Unity, they have obviously been acutely aware of this. The results in by-elections suggest, certainly in the Western Cape, that the DA have had a rocky road. since the 2024 elections. .Now I just want to there's one big caveat. The overwhelming number of voters in the Western Cape or in the City of Cape Town, not in the Overstrand, and also in the Cape Wineland district, which is Stellenbosch, Paarl, Wellington, that area around Cape Town. Cape Town is about, if I remember correctly, 68 percent. The Cape Wineland is about 12 percent. So that's four out of five voters are in that small area of the Western Cape. .We haven't had many by-elections there, but the DA will be concerned of the Patriotic Alliance in the Platteland area and certainly also in the Cape Flats, but the by-election results since 2024 suggest that the PA continues to do well in the Platteland area, the outlying areas which includes by the way a place like George which has a lot of voters. So that would worry the DA somewhat. .You have seen the DA largely stabilise its support in other….Wayne Sussman (07:53.502).…areas which are crucial to them in Gauteng and Kwa-Natal. There was one banana peel in eThekwini in Durban, but that had to do with some local factors. .I do think that the DA has had a difficult time of the Government of National Unity, but in the last two weeks, I think has chalked up some victories, particularly on this argument about VAT, Value Added Tax. So this is something to watch. .I know that the party, just like the ANC in the coming years has a major leadership contest coming. That's going to be key for the party. But their main concern right now will be, can they take advantage of the negative perception towards the ANC in City of Johannesburg and outlying areas? How are they going to counter the rise in popularity of the new Action SA Mayor in Tshwane? And can they continue to win the overwhelming amount of support in key municipalities like Cape Town and continue to do well in places like eThekwini and Durban and those other metropolitan areas. That'll be key for the DA and the year ahead..Chris Steyn (09:13.624).Well, the Democratic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus have also had some friction in a number of by-elections here in the Western Cape. Tell us how the Freedom Front Plus is faring now..Wayne Sussman (09:26.7).Yeah, the Freedom Front, by the way, and this is obviously key because we know that Corné Mulder, who has very strong Western Cape roots, my understanding is he's been the longtime Western Cape leader of the Freedom Front is the new leader of the party. Generally, with new leaders, parties can get a baptism of fire..There's someone like Wouter Vessels, a younger, very talented person at the Freedom Front who's always come forward in another key role. So is the party going to have the wind behind its sails and march ahead? .We know that when we look at the results of the 2021 local government election, particularly in a province like the Northwest, the Freedom Front and parts of Gauteng, the Freedom Front really hurt the DA. .One of the reasons why the DA grew in the last election is that they were able, it's not the only reason, but they were able to win back some of those Freedom Front votes. This is going to be key. .The Freedom Front don't contest many by-elections. They…By the way, by elections are expensive to contest properly. And I think it's a prudent decision for us parties not to contest every by-election. .There was a very encouraging result for the Freedom Front in Tshwane, in Pretoria, where a lot of Freedom Front voters are, where they did hurt the DA. If I remember correctly, it was the suburb of Queenswood. .But we need to see more data. And this will be something to watch in 2025, particularly as Corné Mulder builds on his profile. I know that he…he also gets, he must be one of the most consistent people on BizNews, he's off and on, and he has a profile on a station like this, on a channel like this. He'd have to grow his profile nationally and certainly in other parts of the country like the Free State where the Freedom Front maybe hasn't achieved its full potential yet..Chris Steyn (11:25.794).Another BizNews favourite is Gayton McKenzie of the Patriotic Alliance. Tell us more about his party's performance. I think the last time I spoke to him, he said it was the fastest growing party. Do the election by election results bear that out?.Wayne Sussman (11:40.504).Yeah, look, again, the Patriotic Alliance, like the Freedom Front, do not contest every by-election. And again, they're coming from a low base, but I would say consistently, and again, remember what I said, they don't contest every by-election. For the year 2024 post-election, they're probably the most consistently…improving party in by elections. Now that is great for Gayten McKenzie. And there were two key by elections. And I always say this, it's one thing fight and this is what we saw before the 2024 elections, where the PA were able to compete in multiple by elections in the same day. You cannot throw all your eggs in one basket. And there was a day in towards the end of last year where on the West Rand and in Soweto in areas which are over 99% black, where the PA contested and grew very admirably. Now that'll be exciting for particularly someone like Kenny Kunene, who I think is likely to be the Johannesburg mayoral candidate. .And we associate the Patriotic Alliance with a Coloured community. This was a…break through by election results for them. .They've also done very well in the Western Cape Platteland. They grew somewhat in the one key Cape Flats by election area. .But what we notice that when the DA, and again, these can change, but when the DA loses support amongst Coloured voters in the Cape Flats, it doesn't go all in one direction. It's for the DA death by a thousand cuts. There's the Patriotic Alliance, the Cape Colored Congress. There are some remnants of GOOD, some other local parties. The key thing for these parties who want to hurt the DA is can they get a monopoly on that? .Now in the Plattaland, the PA has been showing that, where they have been chalking up big results. But as we know, the majority of coloured voters in the Western Cape….Wayne Sussman (13:49.969).…are in the city of Cape Town and the PA will hope that they can get more votes there as well..Chris Steyn (13:57.314).Let's just go back to KwaZulu-Natal, the Inkatha Freedom Party..Wayne Sussman (14:03.832).Great, so as we know, the Inkatha Freedom Party has the premiership, Premier Thami Ntuli. They, like the Patriotic Alliance, were one of the most consistently improving parties in by-elections after the election. However, they ran into some potholes towards the end of 2024, where they lost a seat which wasn't an historic IFP seat, but it was in Pietermaritzburg and then in Msunduzi municipality, which is the second most populous municipality in the Kwa-Zulu Natal in the Sweetwaters area. In the by-election, they did very poorly, where they were trying to retain their seat. .However, as we started 2025, we saw the IFP winning a by-election recently. They won a seat off the ANC. This was also an area where this was also the one seat off the ANC, but it was also an area where Umkhonto we Sizwe was the most popular party in 2024. So that is a very good result for the IFP. .And they all want to continue to show growth in their traditional strongholds of Northern KwaZulu-Natal. They'll want to use the fact that they have the premiership position to show that they are making a difference in people's lives. .But what will be key is that the IFP does well in areas which are densely populated. And the lower hanging fruit there are places like Richard's Bay, the uMhlathuze municipality, places like Newcastle, where they were doing very, well from 2021 to the 2024 election before the arrival of Umkhonto we Sizwe, but also….Wayne Sussman (15:53.204).…most importantly, places like Msunduzi and eThekwini. Durban, where most voters are. We know the IFP underperforms in the southern part of KwaZulu-Natal, but the IFP, if we look at their recent by-election result, we've got some key by-elections coming up in KwaZulu-Natal. This is a big year for them. They could be poised to do well in 2026..Chris Steyn (16:15.79).Okay, the Economic Freedom Fighters: have they shown signs of recovery since the national election?.Wayne Sussman (16:23.116).Well, a lot's been happening for the Economic Freedom Fighters. …for those who were watching the television screens the day President Ramaphosa was re-elected, where the Parliament voted him in. And you saw Julius Malema strike…it was a forlorn, he looked like a forlorn figure, that he looked like his cards had been worked out that he wasn't going to be able to influence parliament like he once had and was able to do. And his party declined in the last election. .So, and what we've also seen since then is that a lot of his right-hand men, including Floyd Shivambu, his co-founder of the party, his deputy from the ANC Youth League days all the way to the EFF, deserted him and went Umkhonto we Sizwe, took people like Mzwanele Manyi and a range of other figures along with him. We also saw in December, what transpired with Mbuyiseni Ndlozi, another key person who comes from a different faction. So essentially, the EFF has gone to a leadership contest. They would like to believe and show that this new leadership is firmly behind Malema, that they've got rid of the people who weren't on the same page as Malema, and they're going to march forward. .So what did the by-election trend show us? What does the reality show us? The EFF has typically declined in most of these by-elections.However, when we look at by-elections, as I always say, in all contexts of life, one swallow doesn't make a summer. .In December, we had a lot of by-elections in the mining belt of Thabazimbi in Limpopo. And it was interesting. The EFF….Wayne Sussman (18:19.788).…didn't, they recovered some support. If I remember correctly, they either won the same amount of seats or they won an additional seat, but their percentage grew. And those who writing the EFF's obituary would have been surprised by that. Admittedly, they grew because some of the local parties who did well last time did very poorly this time. But the EFF put in an admirable performance in those particular by-elections. .However, there are a number of results which will concern the EFF, often when they're the only party on the ballot with the ANC, or there's one or other two tiny parties where they are just not growing. .So again, when we look at the EFF in 2024, there was, for instance, the Eastern Cape, they grew somewhat. And in the..in most of the by-elections have in the Eastern Cape since the 2024 elections. The EFF hasn't been able to exhibit that same type of growth, so they'll be concerned. .But the key thing again, just to round off on the EFF, you've had your National Leadership Conference. You'd want to believe that you've whittled out all those people who are not loyal to Malema and that the party will march forward with one voice..Elections are tough. I mean, we sometimes have very little sympathy for politicians. We, we spew vitriol against our ward councillors often for good reason. But being a politician is tough. It's it's a hard hours, long, many, many long weeks, et cetera. You need tough skin. How up for the 2026 fight is Julius Malema going to be? That'll be key to see how, with what momentum they can build on the road to 2026..Chris Steyn (20:07.822).Now, former President Jacob Zuma's MKP had a very disappointing result in a recent by-election, a huge drop, I think from somewhere in the 53 maybe to 19%. Is that indicative of what's happening there, Wayne?.Wayne Sussman (20:26.872).Thanks Chris. Just again, when we have to compare apples with apples, but the reason why I always go back to the 2024 elections is one, because parties Umkhonto we Sizwe were not around in 2021 and they caused an earthquake in KwaZulu-Natal. So we have to compare it with the 2024 results. .And I would like to believe that if you on a…Well, the weather is usually mild in most parts because of Natal in late May, but on that mild day in May 2024, if you went out to vote for Jacob Zuma, you…and your party came so close to winning that outright majority in KwaZulu-Natal you would be as motivated or even more motivated to carry on voting for Jacob Zuma in by-elections and get your friends to say, look, we were denied power. We were by far the most popular party in KwaZulu-Natal. Let's teach those insiders from the IFP, the ANC, the DA, and the NFP. We'll teach them how things get done here..It's quite astonishing, and I've done a deep dive into this, that if one looks at the last seven by-elections of the Umkhonto we Sizwe party, there's been huge declines in five of those wards. You just referred to one where I think they've declined by 34-35 percentage points. I think you said 53% to 19% or 53% to 18% give or take a percent. That is a stunning decline. .And again, we're not talking about a four-year period. We're talking about within the last 12 months. And by the way, we always look at turnout in by-elections, often in KwaZulu-Natal by-elections, the turnout is similar or higher. So it's not like people just stayed away. These are voters who are transferring their vote either back to the ANC or in the recent by-election….Wayne Sussman (22:29.432).…to the IFP. So this is a very interesting development. .The two wards in those last seven where Umkhonto we Sizwe, where it grew, so to say, there wasn't all a negative picture. They grew, but by less than 10 percentage points. .So what we are seeing is that when Umkhonto we Sizwe is declining, it is these are staggering drops. .Let me also say that this is a good, these last seven by elections in KZN, and I always like to use maps, but I have a map in front of me, is across KwaZulu-Natal, rural, densely populated, metro areas, southern KwaZulu-Natal, northern KwaZulu-Natal, Midlands. .So, Umkhonto we Sizwe has a lot of work to do. We have a by-election coming up next week in Richmond. Richmond, let's just do a foretaste for this by-election. Richmond is a real historic ANC stronghold. I think in 2021 in this particular ward, which is right next to the town of Richmond, ANC won over 80% of the vote. Who is the most popular party in this township in 2024? You guessed it, Umkhonto we Sizwe. This is going to be very interesting. I don't expect the IFP to be a factor here. We'll be watching that by-election next week..And then we have other by elections coming up in the coming months. And again, areas which are historic ANC areas, which went to Umkhonto we Sizwe in 2024. This is going to be a big thing because Umkhonto we Sizwe need to show South African voters, particularly KwaZulu-Natal voters that look, there were some rough seas to navigate, the party is broadening its support, the party is more stable now, President Jacob Zuma is firmly in control, Floyd Shivambu has his confidence. Otherwise, it could be a long year for Umkhonto we Sizwe..Chris Steyn (24:19.438).Now Wayne, statistically speaking, are you able to declare a big winner and a big loser in terms of by election results thus far?.Wayne Sussman (24:30.744).Chris, I listen often to interviews on BizNews and I'm amazed at the conviction some of your guests have. Look, I'm going to give a very boring answer. There is so much….The country is going through somewhat tumultuous times. This Government of National Unity is still trying to find its feet. We're seeing many of our metropolitan areas having huge infrastructure decay. I mean, the economic growth numbers came out yesterday, very limited growth. You also have, go back to, we spoke about the IFP and the PA earlier. Okay, Gayton Mackenzie, Minister of Arts and Culture and Sport, can really succeed there. It's a ministry where, I mean, I think it's the Minister of National Happiness, I forgot what he calls himself, but we are happier people if our sports teams are doing well, if we have good arts and culture at our disposal. However, I think he had…a very big honeymoon period. Can he extend that honeymoon period for 2025 and build momentum for 2026? He can do well then. But if he doesn't start exhibiting results in all those spheres, that honeymoon period will end very, very quickly. .I said the IFP had win behind their sails. If KwaZulu-Natal has more bad weather, more violence, lack of economic growth, it could be a rough year for that Government of Provincial Unity. Again, I think it might be even rougher for the Inkatha Freedom Party..Wayne Sussman (26:11.772).If the DA continues to be seen as not getting, not fighting for their voters in the Government National Unity, it could be a rough year for them as well. .If the ANC don't turn around this economy and turn around the City of Johannesburg and many other places, it could be a rough year as well. I think it's very, it's too early to tell. I'm sorry to give a very boring answer..And I think we'd have to come back to this to see who is likely to emerge as a winner. And let's also remember that in the space of six months, a party came out of nowhere and became the third largest party in South Africa. We are going into a local government election. And just to, I've been speaking about big themes now, let me become a geek and speak about little themes..The winners in the 2021 election, we saw more South Africans retreat inwards. Zulu voters voting for the IFP, Afrikaans voters voting for the Freedom Front, Coloured voters choosing the Patriotic Alliance..A fourth factor were local grassroots citizens movements, which cannot be or battle to be a factor in national or provincial elections, but can be a factor in local elections. They were a factor in many small municipalities across South Africa. Is that going to start emerging this year? So I think we need to have this conversation if you'd invite me back later on in the year or closer to the time. .But let's keep and again, why by elections matter. One, because it is a snapshot of what a particular community is feeling at a particular time..Wayne Sussman (27:58.664).And of course there could be quirks and idiosyncrasies. Some parties might spend more money, some parties might spend less money. I find it far more helpful than some bot's opinion on Twitter or some gadfly's predictable opinion on social media. So let's keep on watching those by-elections and maybe in another interview I'll be able to answer that question..Chris Steyn (28:22.296).Thank you. That was Wayne Sussons, election expert speaking to BizNews And I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you so much, Wayne..Wayne Sussman (28:31.266).Thank you..Read also:.A R150bn annual 'bonsela' for elites gaming SA's ludicrous BEE lawsRamaphosa's risky foreign policy: Backing ICJ warrants, straining US ties🔒 John Matisonn: DA now SA's most stable large party

By-election trends: Good news for Gayton; bad news for JZ, Julius; the DA’s “rocky road”; and the ANC’s big Gauteng worry…

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