Cape Independence – latest poll has 58% in favour, advocates demand ballot in ’24
The idea of the Western Cape's secession from South Africa continues to gather momentum, with the latest poll showing well over half of those who live in the province support independence. After the province's well-publicised Devolution Forum petered out, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group is now demanding that DA leader John Steenhuisen keep his promise to them and ensures a referendum is held. In this interview, spokesman Phil Craig shares the latest research data and explains that the intention is to force this referendum on independence to be held simultaneously with SA's 2024 National election. – Alec Hogg
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Relevant timestamps from the interview
- 00:09 – Introductions
- 01:03 – Phil Craig on who they surveyed
- 02:03 – On how many they've done over the years
- 03:16 – On how he responds to the criticism of the idea of Cape Independence
- 04:58 – On if there is a change in government and how that affects Cape Independence
- 07:38 – The data. 68% want a referendum. What does that mean
- 08:31 – What percentage of the people that you polled said when you get that referendum, they will actually vote for Independence
- 09:44 – Could this escalate into war
- 11:30 – On if the devolution of powers is a middle ground
- 13:13 – On the racial perceptions of Cape Independence
- 14:30 – Where do the Patriotic Alliance and Freedom Front Plus stand on this
- 16:05 – Possibility of Gayton McKenzie being president of Western Cape if Independent
- 18:18 – Where do they go from here
- 20:42 – having a referendum on whether the Cape should be independent for the people of the Western Cape on Election Day 2024
- 22:55 – Conclusions
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Edited transcript of the interview between Alec Hogg and Phil Craig
Alec Hogg: I'm here with Phil Craig, the spokesperson for the Cape Independence Advocacy Group. Phil, it's been a while since we last spoke, so it's great to catch up and discuss the developments regarding Cape Independence. A lot has been happening in this arena. Could you share some insights? Cape Independence, as you've been advocating, pertains to the Western Cape's potential secession from South Africa. Are the people of the Western Cape aligned with this vision? A recent survey by your group has produced intriguing results. Before delving into those, could you shed light on the survey's demographics? Given that over 50% of the Western Cape's population falls under the old "coloured" classification, it's essential to understand the diversity of those surveyed. Could you elaborate on the groups you included?
Phil Craig: Certainly, Alec. Our survey is meticulously designed to mirror the region's demographic makeup. We aimed for a comprehensive representation, encompassing various racial backgrounds, genders, and age groups. The survey was initiated through random phone calls using a database of mobile numbers spanning all of South Africa. We carefully ensured that respondents were exclusively from the Western Cape. Once the data was collected, we undertook adjustments to ensure it accurately reflected the actual population distribution. In essence, our survey covers a true cross-section of the Western Cape's populace, devoid of any manipulation or bias.
Alec Hogg: I appreciate the detailed explanation, Phil. How many surveys have you conducted over the years to track these trends?
Phil Craig: This marks our third survey endeavor. We conducted surveys in 2020 and 2021, took a hiatus in 2022, and have just concluded our most recent study in 2023.
Alec Hogg: Fascinating. Have you observed any discernible trends in the results over time?
Phil Craig: Absolutely, Alec. The trends have been remarkably consistent. Support for the idea of a referendum regarding Cape Independence has consistently outpaced direct support for secession itself. This isn't surprising; such a trajectory is logical. With each passing year, we've noted a steady increase in support, a trend that correlates with the deteriorating conditions in South Africa. As people become more familiar with the concept of Cape Independence and its viability, awareness and acceptance have grown hand in hand.
Alec Hogg: It's intriguing to see these trends unfold, Phil. However, as you're well aware, not everyone is in favor of Cape Independence, including individuals residing beyond the Western Cape and even some within the Democratic Alliance leadership, the party currently governing the province. When facing criticism or opposition on this matter, how do you respond?
Phil Craig: Indeed, Alec, differing perspectives are natural. Political parties are driven by their own agendas, often oriented toward national interests. For the Democratic Alliance (DA), a party with national aspirations, Cape Independence presents a challenging narrative. The DA's focus is primarily national, and Cape Independence doesn't neatly align with their objectives. Currently, they're advocating for a binary choice in the 2024 elections, overlooking the third option that Cape Independence represents for the Western Cape. This message might be inconvenient for the DA's overarching vision, but it's essential for those who seek a more region-specific direction.
Alec Hogg: Your insights are illuminating, Phil. What about the potential scenario where the national government changes hands in 2024? If, for instance, a coalition government assumes power, and the ANC is no longer in control, how would that impact the Cape Independence movement? Would the idea still hold weight in such a scenario?
Phil Craig: That's a thought-provoking question, Alec. The viability of Cape Independence isn't inherently tied to the ruling party's identity at the national level. While shifts in government can certainly influence the landscape, our focus remains on advocating for a referendum that allows the people of the Western Cape to decide their future. Regardless of who is in power nationally, the desire for regional autonomy persists, and our mission remains to facilitate that democratic choice.
Alec Hogg: But would this spell the end of the Cape Independence movement?
Phil Craig: I don't believe so. The reason being that the desire for Cape Independence isn't solely tied to the ruling party at the national level. The people of the Western Cape still seek the government they've voted for. Imagine a coalition government – it's a confluence of parties with diverse viewpoints. Some might endorse race-based policies, while others won't. These differences must be reconciled to form a functional government. To address your question directly, if there was a viable way to salvage South Africa, then yes, we'd have to reevaluate Cape Independence's purpose. Our ultimate goal is securing a future for our families, and this aspiration stems from the current challenges within Africa. If the context were different, the notion of Cape Independence might not have emerged.
Alec Hogg: Moving on to the survey results, the data shows that 68% of respondents support the idea of a referendum. Could you elaborate on the significance of this finding?
Phil Craig: Certainly, Alec. The survey question was clear: "Do you support or oppose the idea of a referendum in the Western Cape to test whether people in the province would like the Western Cape to become an independent country separate from South Africa?" The outcome was as follows: 68.0% in support, 30.2% opposed, and 1.9% undecided or didn't state a preference.
Alec Hogg: That's quite comprehensive indeed.
Phil Craig: Absolutely, the data is quite comprehensive.
Alec Hogg: So, this essentially indicates that the majority of people want the opportunity to decide the future of the Western Cape in terms of its independence. What about the next question, which delves into the percentage of respondents who would actually vote for independence in such a referendum?
Phil Craig: Support for Cape Independence becomes slightly more nuanced when we consider the exit question. We asked this question at various points during the survey, but the exit question is typically the most accurate measure. The question posed was, "Now thinking again, do you support or oppose the Western Cape becoming an independent country?" The results show that 58.4% were in favour, 34.8% opposed, and 6.7% were either undecided or didn't respond. Therefore, we have 68% in support of a referendum and 58% in support of Cape Independence itself.
Alec Hogg: This certainly paints a clear picture. Shifting gears slightly, historical parallels can sometimes shed light on current situations. I've been reading about Abraham Lincoln's presidency, where the Southern states, analogous to the Western Cape, voted overwhelmingly to retain slavery. Could Cape Independence have similar implications?
Phil Craig: While historical parallels can be insightful, we need to approach them cautiously. The comparison you've drawn is interesting. However, when it comes to Cape Independence, the democratic process and self-determination are at the forefront. To compare a call for a democratic vote to retain or reject certain policies with a situation rooted in slavery is a significant stretch. We firmly believe in democratic principles, and our advocacy for Cape Independence rests on the desire to allow the people of the Western Cape to determine their own path, devoid of repression or coercion.
Alec Hogg: Indeed, the essence of democracy involves respecting the voice of the people. Speaking of democracy, how do various political parties outside the Democratic Alliance, such as the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus, align with your cause?
Phil Craig: The Patriotic Alliance's stance on Cape Independence appears to be one of opposition, and our communications haven't yielded significant engagement. As for the Freedom Front Plus, they align more favorably with Cape Independence, and their supporters reflect this alignment.
Alec Hogg: Given the perspectives and challenges you face, how do you address the perception that Cape Independence is about a group of individuals seeking to preserve privilege, akin to creating a larger version of Orania?
Phil Craig: That perception is a distortion of our objectives. Our movement is fundamentally non-racial, with a focus on democracy and good governance. Data from our survey indicates that Cape Independence enjoys support across various racial communities, and the bulk of our supporters are from the colored community. The claim of a racially exclusive agenda is baseless, and it's often employed to deflect from the real issues at hand – the quest for regional autonomy and better governance.
Alec Hogg: Transparency and communication are crucial in addressing such misconceptions. Considering all these factors, what lies ahead for the Cape Independence movement?
Phil Craig: We're launching a campaign to demand a Cape Independence referendum on Election Day 2024. This effort is a collaboration involving Cape Hexley, the Freedom Front Plus, the Cape Independence Party, the Cape Youth Front, and the Swartland Axi Group. Our campaign centers on capereferendum.org, where we're reaching out to Premier Alan Winde and President Cyril Ramaphosa to request the referendum. We've given them until October 10th to confirm their willingness to conduct it. If their response is negative, we have further steps planned. Our resolve remains firm – the Western Cape deserves the right to voice its preferences, and we won't be silenced. Whether it's the status quo or the prospect of Cape Independence, the people of the Western Cape must be allowed to decide their own future.
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