Director’s Cut: Iran on a knife edge - Dr Iraj Abedian on killings, SA silence and Trump's gamble

Iran is burning and the world is hesitating. Economist Iraj Abedian delivers a raw, emotional account of a nation held hostage by its own regime, why South Africa’s silence is so troubling, and why Donald Trump may now be the only wild card left as thousands are killed behind an information blackout.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.Iran is no longer simmering. According to economist and Iran-born analyst Dr Iraj Abedian, the country has crossed into something far darker. What is unfolding now, he says, is not another protest cycle or a familiar uprising around elections or women’s rights. It is a full-scale confrontation between a population that believes it has nothing left to lose and a regime fighting violently for survival.Speaking to BizNews editor Alec Hogg, Abedian described Iran as “literally sitting on a knife edge”, with the next few days potentially decisive. President Donald Trump’s recent statements have only heightened the sense that events are approaching a point of no return.Inside Iran, Abedian says, the situation resembles a war zone. After weeks of nationwide protests, the regime imposed an internet blackout and began using live ammunition against unarmed civilians. An internal memo from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, reportedly leaked to international media, claims that around 12,000 protesters were killed in just 48 hours. Most, according to that document, were under the age of 30.“This time it is not about reform,” Abedian said. “It is not about fair elections or women’s rights alone. It is about life itself. People are saying: we have had enough. We will not die slowly anymore.”What makes this uprising different, he argues, is its breadth. Protest activity has spread across more than 120 locations, cutting across class, ethnicity and ideology. Even Iran’s traditionally conservative bazaar traders, long seen as regime supporters, have joined in. Their trigger was economic collapse. Iran’s currency went into free fall, wiping out wealth in days and paralysing trade in a country that depends heavily on imports for food, medicine and fuel.“When your currency loses nearly half its value in four days, everything stops,” Abedian said. “Businesses disappear, shelves empty, salaries are unpaid. That is the spark, but the fire is much bigger than economics.”The response from authorities has been brutal. Hospitals have been raided, tear gas deployed inside medical facilities and wounded protesters hunted down. Thousands more are believed to be injured, overwhelming Iran’s healthcare system. More than 4,000 Iranian doctors have reportedly appealed for international help, citing medicine shortages and critical care failures.Against this backdrop, Abedian expressed deep anguish at South Africa’s silence.“I can cry when I think about it,” he said. “Our constitution is built on human rights, dignity and freedom. The United Nations has repeatedly found this regime guilty of crimes against humanity. And yet our government says nothing.”South Africa has continued military and diplomatic engagement with Iran, including joint naval exercises under the BRICS banner. Abedian believes this undermines South Africa’s own constitutional principles and damages its credibility.“This is not about geopolitics anymore,” he said. “It is about whether we stand against mass murder. History will judge this regime as the Nazis of the 21st century. Why would South Africa want to be associated with that?”He also warned of reputational and financial fallout for South African companies still operating in Iran, particularly MTN, which owns nearly half of Iran’s largest mobile network. In Abedian’s view, MTN is trapped in a no-win situation. If the regime survives, the company is seen as complicit. If it falls, it may face claims from a future Iranian government and public.“If I were on that board, I would say: cut your losses now,” he said. “This is about ESG, fiduciary duty and protecting what remains of your brand.”The role of Donald Trump looms large. Abedian admits there is enormous uncertainty about whether the former president will act. But from inside Iran, the calculation is brutally simple.“When you are thrown into a deep well and someone offers to pull you out, you do not ask who they are,” he said. “You say yes.”Ideally, Abedian believes, the United Nations Security Council should invoke its responsibility to protect civilians. Realistically, he knows it will not. China and Russia have strategic interests in Iran, while many non-aligned countries remain silent. That leaves Trump as the only world leader openly signalling sympathy for the protesters.This, Abedian argues, reflects a broader global pattern. Around the world, institutions of power have failed to respond to deepening inequality, corruption and economic decay. Business elites, he says, often retreat into silence while continuing to profit, only to be shocked when social collapse arrives.“You become complicit by being quiet,” he said. “The power pyramid has inverted. Leaders just refuse to see it.”For South Africa, he believes, the lesson is urgent. Aligning reflexively with one global bloc or another offers no protection for a country already struggling with unemployment, poverty and governance failure. What matters now is honesty, principle and a relentless focus on improving the lived reality of citizens.“The truth will come out,” Abedian said. “It always does. The question is how many lives are lost before we decide to stand on the right side of history.”

Director’s Cut: Iran on a knife edge - Dr Iraj Abedian on killings, SA silence and Trump's gamble

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