Miningweb Weekly: Trump’s mining boom, SA’s missed chances, and China’s rare earth power play

From Joburg to Washington, mining is being reshaped by politics and power. Peter Major joins Alec Hogg to unpack how Donald Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” revival is fuelling a new U.S. mining boom while South Africa keeps digging itself into decline. They dissect Gwede Mantashe’s missed opportunity at the Joburg Indaba, the syndicates gaming the JSE, and why China’s dominance of rare earths could rewrite the global balance of power.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.Peter Major doesn’t mince words. “This country is built on mining,” he says. “God gave us more minerals than any other country, and when we used them properly, we built a first-world economy. Now, we’re producing half of what we should, because we’ve tied ourselves in knots.”It’s the kind of blunt honesty you expect from Major, the veteran mining analyst who has watched the industry’s slow decay for four decades. Sitting down for this week’s Miningweb Weekly, Major’s frustration is clear — not just at the policies strangling South African mining, but at the missed opportunities he witnessed at the recent Joburg Indaba.“I wanted Gwede Mantashe to be a hero,” he says. “He had the last word at the end of a strong two-day conference. Everyone would have remembered him if he stood up and said, ‘We’re changing. We’re making it easier to invest. We’re fixing mining.’ But instead, he rambled, joked, and doubled down on the same lines about transformation and women in mining. He completely missed the moment.”For Major, it’s not about gender politics or slogans. It’s about survival. “We’ve fallen from producing 650 tons of gold a year to 90. We still have half the world’s reserves. Anyone with sense would ask who managed this disaster. We’re producing less coal, less iron ore, less of everything than we did 30 years ago. It’s not just a decline — it’s self-destruction.”He points to Zambia as a warning — and a mirror. “What happened there in the seventies and eighties is exactly what’s happening here. They nationalized their mines, chased away investment, and watched copper production collapse. It took decades to recover. We’re following the same path, only slower, because we think we’re smarter.”But while South Africa drags its feet, another player has sprinted ahead — and it’s not China this time. It’s the United States.Major lights up when talking about a recent presentation by Caroline Donnelly, a South African now working in Texas as a senior director at Denham Capital. “She said everything has changed in the last six months — and the reason is Donald Trump,” he says. “They’re calling it ‘drill baby drill, dig baby dig’. Projects that waited years for permits now get them in weeks. Federal agencies are terrified of being accused of holding up mining.”That shift, he warns, means global mining capital is being sucked into America at record speed — and away from South Africa. “The pool of capital for mining is finite,” he says. “Most money still goes into IT, not mining. And now that the U.S. is open for business again, investors are turning their funnels toward America. Everyone wants projects where you can get a license without 30 percent BEE or 10,000 regulations.”He grins wryly. “In America, nobody knows how to spell the word expropriation.”It’s a stinging contrast to South Africa’s paralyzing bureaucracy. “We’ve got 2,500 mining regulations. Gwede’s basically rewritten the Ten Commandments. He’s added a few thousand more. The result is simple — legitimate companies die or leave, while the crooks and syndicates thrive. They don’t follow the rules anyway.”Major doesn’t believe Mantashe is corrupt, just stubborn. “He thinks changing his tune would make him look weak. But that stubbornness is costing jobs, revenue, and relevance.”Alec Hogg, who covered mining since 1980, recalls the days when Johannesburg’s stock market was filled with mining counters and exploration buzz. “Now, there hasn’t been meaningful exploration in 20 years,” he notes. “Not one new mine discovered. That’s not a slump — it’s an industrial coma.”Major nods. “Exploration is oxygen. No exploration means no new life. That’s how industries die.”From there, the conversation shifts to global stakes — and China’s grip on rare earth minerals, the elements essential for electric vehicles, smartphones, and modern warfare. “This is the new nuclear weapon,” Major says. “China produces and refines 90 percent of the world’s rare earths. If there’s a conflict, it won’t be fought with soldiers or tanks. It’ll be fought with drones, chips, and rare earths — and China controls the supply.”He describes the geopolitical chessboard with unnerving calm. “The U.S. could be sitting on trillions of dollars of obsolete military hardware while China controls the materials needed for modern warfare. That’s how big this is. Rare earths are the new uranium.”Yet even here, South Africa has a chance — and it’s letting it slip. “We’ve got huge rare earth deposits. But our own experts are going to Zambia and Uganda instead. They can get permits there, no BEE quotas, no delays. It’s boom time up north while we drown in red tape.”Major isn’t entirely pessimistic. He believes South Africa’s minerals — from platinum to manganese — still give it leverage. “Trump’s not sentimental, but he’s pragmatic,” he says. “He can shout about tariffs, but he’ll make exceptions for strategic minerals. The U.S. needs PGMs, and we’ve got most of them. That relationship can survive politics if we stop shooting ourselves in the foot.”When asked what it would take to fix South African mining, his answer is immediate. “Back off on the regulations. Follow Trump’s lead. Private industry will do the rest. We don’t need government money or subsidies. We just need government to get out of the way.”As the conversation wraps, Hogg laughs. “That’s a beautiful way to end, Pete. Work with America. It can’t be that difficult.”Major smiles. “Exactly. Just make an effort.”

Miningweb Weekly: Trump’s mining boom, SA’s missed chances, and China’s rare earth power play

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