SA’s most accurate poll shows ANC down to 32% – its populist gamble has backfired

The Social Research Foundation's latest polling results should send shockwaves through the former ruling political party which has been gambling on populist ideas to get its vote share back above 50%. South African voters have swung the other way, dropping the ANC's guaranteed support by 13 percentage points from 45% six months ago. A clear majority also want Cyril Ramaphosa to resign and spark another General Election. The SRF's head of research Gabriel Makin spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Alec Hogg (00:06.262):The Social Research Foundation has been uncannily accurate in its polls leading up to the May 2024 election, and even before that. This makes it stand out from many polls around the world. Their latest poll, considering their track record, is a huge shock for the ANC. A huge shock. We're going to find out more from Gabriel Makin, Director of Research at the Social Research Foundation..Alec Hogg (00:39.03):Now, Gabriel, did I read this correctly? The ANC has gone from around 40% in the May election to 45% in September, which was the last time we spoke with your colleague from the SRF, Frans Cronje. But now, according to the latest poll, it's at 32%. Can that really be true?.Gabriel Makin (00:59.719):Hi Alec, yes, I was just as shocked as you when I first saw the poll numbers. But I think what we're seeing here definitely makes a lot of sense. The most important thing for your viewers is that the ANC is at 32%, but nothing else has really changed since September when we did our last poll. So the DA remains at 25%, the MK Party is around 12%, the EFF is at 6%, the IFP is at 3%, and the PA is at 2%. However, there's a 4% margin of error on these numbers, so there's a wider variance..What has grown, though, is the number of undecided voters in South Africa's voting market. And this is a true undecided group. About 15% of likely voters can't be assigned to any party..We were so accurate in our previous polls because we used various methods to assign voters to different parties. It's not just the question, "Who are you going to vote for in the next election?" We also use leader favourability and party favourability. We do this for every single party and leader. If a voter indicates strong favourability toward a party or leader above a certain threshold, we allocate them to that party in the final turnout model..However, for the first time, 15% of voters are genuinely undecided. They don't know who they'll vote for. When we checked them against all the different thresholds for party and leader favourability, we found we couldn't allocate them to any party. They don't like any of them..Alec Hogg (03:02.198):Okay, so let's break this down a bit more clearly. You said there's a 4% error margin. Does that mean that, all things being equal, the ANC could be as high as 36%, but it could also be as low as 28%?.Gabriel Makin (03:20.473):Yes, but when we deal with these numbers, we must acknowledge that, on election day, you can't have 15% of the votes as undecided. So, while we should be responsible and say the ANC is probably not at 32%, it would likely be in the low to mid-40% range if there were an election today, closer to where we found it in September..Those voters who are undecided now might remain neutral since there's no immediate election. But when the election comes, they'll likely pick a party, and it's very likely that they'll swing back to the ANC. We see no reason why they wouldn't. But you shouldn't think of those undecided voters as just ANC supporters—they're free agents in the South African voting market. They can move in any direction and will likely be a key source of political contestation. This 15% could tip the balance of power in South African politics moving forward..Alec Hogg (04:38.644):Okay, so now we have this 15% of undecided voters. But if we go back to what we've been hearing from politicians, especially Helen Zille, who said at the BizNews conference three years ago that the ANC would fracture, with the real future of South African politics being between the DA and the EFF, it now seems that the MK Party has shifted into that EFF space. But let's set that aside for a moment..It looks like this huge chunk of former ANC voters, now undecided, is up for grabs. From your perspective, based on the polls you're seeing, how undecided are they? In other words, are they likely to vote for another party if they feel that, come the next election, the ANC is really messing things up?.Gabriel Makin (05:40.327):The quick answer is yes, they are completely undecided. I can say that with certainty because, back in 2022, our first poll revealed some fascinating results. One key finding was that the South African population, as a whole, is very moderate and pragmatic. They're not in favour of large-scale expropriation or populist policies, which the ANC has been pushing in recent years..The ANC, as we observed in 2022, had started to outpace its voter base. Its voters weren't interested in the populist direction the party was taking. We also did a market segmentation of the South African voter base and found that about 80% of registered voters are either "in reach" or "available" for political parties to contest..Lastly, we conducted a word association game, where we asked people to associate different words or phrases with political parties. For the ANC, phrases like "makes broken promises" and "only cares about themselves" came up most often, with a plurality associating the party with being "anti-poor." Meanwhile, the DA was most associated with "good policies," "best at service delivery," and "clean governance." The EFF, on the other hand, was seen as "violent" and "racist.".What this showed us was that the ANC had lost its image as the party of good governance and was viewed skeptically by South African voters. In 2022, we also found that ANC support was driven by two main factors: fear of what would happen if the ANC lost its majority, and skepticism toward the opposition parties..Gabriel Makin (08:03.141):For example, we asked people if they thought violence would erupt in their community if the ANC lost its majority. About 60-70% of ANC voters agreed with this idea. But at that time, ANC voters also had little trust in opposition parties, which is why they stuck with the ANC despite its flaws..Now, fast forward three years. The ANC has pursued even more radical populist policies, such as expropriation without compensation (EWC) and NHI, and has failed to deliver on basic services like electricity. When the ANC lost its majority in the 2019 election, there was no violence, just coalition negotiations. That fact alone undermines the fear that once held ANC voters in place..So now, voters no longer have to fear the consequences of the ANC losing power, and they're free to watch and wait to see how the political situation develops. They don't feel tied to the ANC anymore, and they're likely to vote—just not necessarily for the ANC..Alec Hogg (12:39.142):That's fascinating because it opens up the path for new political figures. We saw Herman Mashaba try this path with ActionSA, but it seems to have fallen off. Do you think there's potential for someone new to emerge in this space?.Also, with the change in leadership in the Freedom Front Plus, with Corné Mulder taking over, will they approach things differently from Pieter Groenewald? Could this change bring them into the political conversation, even if they didn't score high enough in your poll?.Gabriel Makin (13:28.743):Yes, they were part of our poll. We try not to give too much attention to parties within the margin of error, as it's difficult to predict where they'll land. But the idea of new parties is very interesting. Jacob Zuma capitalised on a similar opportunity during the last election..We've long said that there's a large chunk of ANC voters who don't feel aligned with the party anymore—they're just sticking with it out of fear. Jacob Zuma was able to offer a story that resonated with this group, which is why his support base grew..The MK Party's performance shows that ANC voters are once again in a position where the party is pushing them away with populist policies. These voters are undecided, and that means any party could win their support..Gabriel Makin (15:49.287):Two-thirds of those polled are anti-EWC. We asked whether expropriation is a good economic idea, whether the government can be trusted to expropriate property, and if it will drive away foreign investment. In each case, two-thirds said "no" to all of these questions. We also found that 60% of ANC voters are opposed to EWC..While Cyril Ramaphosa has upheld ANC support among its base, he no longer enjoys favourability outside the ANC. One of the key findings from this poll is that when we asked people about a vote of no confidence in Ramaphosa, the response was split 50-50. But when we asked if he should resign due to his poor performance, 60% of respondents were in favour of him stepping down..Alec Hogg (18:04.272):That's a critical change, Gabriel. Can you unpack it for us?.Gabriel Makin (18:11.791):Yes. When we asked if a vote of no confidence in Ramaphosa was successful, we then asked who voters would choose in the subsequent election. Under Ramaphosa's leadership, the ANC could win around 35%, but under any new leader, that number would jump to 40%. If Ramaphosa resigned, the ANC would see more support in the short term. This is similar to what happened with Zuma and his resignation..Alec Hogg (19:04.012):That would give the ANC a new lease of life, no doubt. Interesting stuff. Thank you, Gabriel..Alec Hogg (19:18.122):So, to recap: The ANC is at 32%, but a large group of voters are undecided. With the right leadership, the ANC could still recover, but its decline under Ramaphosa has created an opening for other parties. .Gabriel Makin, Director of Research at the Social Research Foundation and I'm Alec Hogg from BizNews.com..Read also:.Neil de Beer: De Ruyter & Eskom, Cyril & Trump, the GNU & VAT, Corné & the DA- and Cele's crime legacyBN Briefing: ANC support plummets in latest SRF poll; Mulder elected FF+ leader; German electionsTrump's missteps: South Africa, nuclear power and Iran – Andrew Kenny

SA’s most accurate poll shows ANC down to 32% – its populist gamble has backfired

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