SA “softening” towards the West in difficult balancing act…
Ronan Wordsworth, an analyst at Geopolitical Futures and the host of The Geopolitical Pickle podcast – based in Prague in the Czech Republic – tells BizNews that while there's "this idea that perhaps South Africa had shifted quite far towards the Russian camp", the African National Congress (ANC) has actually been "softening" towards the West recently, and is possibly bringing their stance back "more towards the middle ground". He says if the ANC needs a coalition partner after next year's general election, it would have to pick parties that would promote the growth of the South African economy, "which is desperately needed at the moment". He explains why Kenya – as an African country – and India – despite being in BRICS – have managed to find a workable middle ground between East and West. And he points out that too much focus on Russia at the upcoming BRICS Summit in South Africa "will really upset the balance of South Africa's economy and trade and foreign policy interests compared to the other BRICS partners". – Chris Steyn
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Relevant timestamps from the interview
- 00:09 – Introductions
- 00:35 – Ronan Wordsworth on how SA can find a workable middle ground externally
- 03:14 – On which other African country has found a way to balance between East and West as best as it can
- 05:29 – Which country from BRICS has found this spot
- 08:15 – If SA has been doing enough to find a balance
- 12:11 – On which party would most compliment the ANC after the elections
- 13:54 – On if it would be possible to induct new members into BRICS
- 15:52 – Conclusions
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Highlights from the interview
South Africa seems to be "softening" its stance towards the West as the country struggles to find the middle ground between its Western and Eastern interests.
This has emerged from a BizNews interview with Ronan Wordsworth, an analyst at Geopolitical Futures and the host of The Geopolitical Pickle podcast – based in Prague in the Czech Republic.
He says while there's "this idea that perhaps South Africa had shifted quite far towards the Russian camp", the African National Congress (ANC) had recently actually been "softening" towards the West, and is possibly bringing their stance back "more towards the middle ground".
"I think it was maybe internally recognised by ANC that they had the balance wrong…So they're going back to their traditional point, which is somewhere between the East and the West and playing off both camps to basically do what's best for South Africa."
Wordsworth gives Kenya as an example of an African country that has "played that Balancing Act quite well".
He points out that the "much reduced" attendance of African countries at the recent Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg "is part of how a lot of these African countries are better able to balance" between the East and the West.
"You don't really want to go all into Russia's camp, when Russia, the Russian economy is not in a state where it can actually benefit you…You're much better off playing between China and Europe and the US. You get much more benefit from doing that. And that's what I think Kenya has really excelled recently in their foreign policy towards that balancing."
Wordsworth singles out India as a BRICS member who has also managed to master the balance between Eastern and Western interests to best benefit. "India itself is a great example of how you can work with BRICS and yet still interact with the West. He notes how this also has "massive economic benefits" for India.
Meanwhile, the ANC is also battling for balance on the domestic front. "On the other side from the DA (Democratic Alliance), we have EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) who are pulling ANC in the completely polar opposite direction," says Wordsworth.
"And it's very difficult to see how ANC might be able to win over some of the DA voters, whereas some of the EFF voters might be perhaps easier to win over in the case of election to push them over that line above 50%."
As for the ruling ANC ending up with a national election result next year that forces it to choose a coalition partner to stay in government, Wordsworth says: "So it would make more sense to me for them to appeal to the DA or to even some of the minor parties which might have a few per cent which can hold the balance… Whereas the EFF are much more radical. They don't even really want to work with ANC at all anyway. They want to bring down the ANC a little bit as well. So…if they (the ANC) need to work in a coalition, they will need to find a partner that they can work with. And I don't think EFF would be the right partner for that.
"So in that sense, then you're automatically looking at trying to soften your stance to the West. You're looking towards the other partners, which could bring…it about the numbers to get through Parliament, but also then promote the trade, promote the growth of the South African economy, which is desperately needed at the moment."
Wordsworth also points out that too much focus on Russia at the upcoming BRICS Summit in South Africa "will really upset the balance of South Africa's economy and trade and foreign policy interests compared to the other BRICS partners".
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