Wayne Sussman: Mkhwanazi demolition, Mamelodi assassination - and the latest by-elections

In his latest interview with BizNews, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman explains why KZN Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi’s Press Conference was “absolutely devastating”. He says the General’s claims “go to the heart of the challenge of the ANC, that President Ramaphosa was going to reform the ANC and course correct after the devastating years of Jacob Zuma leading the ANC”. Intead, “here you have one of his trusted lieutenants, one of his right-hand men, one of the people in the party he's extremely close to, being fingered with the most damning of evidence with ties to the underworld”. He notes that the implicated Police Minister Senzo Mchunu was going to play “a key role in the next election for the ANC to recover all that lost support in KwaZulu-Natal”. Sussman also laments the assassination of African National Congress (ANC) councillor Thabang Masemola in Ward 10 in Mamelodi, saying that “this is becoming too common a feature of Gauteng politics”. Dissecting the latest by-election results, Sussman says the “the DA will say that they are on track on the road to Tshwane, which will be a battleground metro in 2026; uMkhonto weSizwe make inroads in ANC heartland, in Xhosa-speaking heartland; the Freedom Front will say…that they have some hope in the Free State”. He also gives a preview of upcoming elections that could be “really narrative forming on the road to the 2026 local government elections”..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.783)Another round of by-elections were held last night. We get the latest from Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:11.714)Thank you, good morning Chris, and it's great to speak to you.Chris Steyn (00:15.075)Thank you. Let us go to last night. Please dissect those results for us.Wayne Sussman (00:21.326)So we had three by-elections, the latest round of by-elections, two of them were in the capital city, Tshwane. By the way, they're all three DA seats. And I'm gonna start with the ward which I thought would be the most competitive of the races. And that was ward 98 in the north of Pretoria in areas like Theresa Park and Akasia. Akasia is quite a diverse suburb whrere Freedom Front.not just the DA, but the Freedom Front, the EFF and the ANC all have pockets of support, right by the Onderstepoort Nature Reserve. And here you saw the DA go from 42% to over 70% to the vote. Now turnout was only 17% in the by-election, 16 or 17%. But the DA won every single voting district, as I've just said, within a ward there are voting districts. And we mined the voting districts because again, this is quite a diverse ward and the DA won in every area including Akasia. Here they won over 60% of the vote in one of the voting districts which is won by the ANC last time - and you saw the Freedom Front take a knock, the ANC take a knock and the EFF take a knock. So, yes, turn-out was low. And yes, the DA benefited by ActionSA probably not being on the ballot. They came, got 10% in 2021. But it's major growth for the DA. And we've now had three by-elections in Tshwane in DA areas in a short space of time where the DA have done very, very well. So that was the first one, Ward 98. The ANC and the EFF will be concerned that they weren't able to turn their voters out which is something very important in elections, something called a turnout differential, which party is able to get their supporters out. The DA were clearly more effective than the ANC and the EFF. And the Freedom Front, who had a well-known candidate, the former Member of Mayoral Committee, her surname is Marx, Rina Marx…Wayne Sussman (02:33.869)…she didn't turn this by election on fire. So the DA will be happy with that in ward 98. Then we go to the area of Faerie Glen in the east of Pretoria, which is a much more homogenous area. And here the DA won 88% of the vote. This area has seven voting districts. Their lowest result is 85%. Their highest is 91%. So very consistent performance. And the Freedom Front lost support. They only got 11%. And this is quite an Afrikaans area, solid middle class area and we know that in 2021 the Freedom Front hurt the DA in Pretoria in Tshwane. The DA will be absolutely delighted with these results. So to step back, the DA's, and by the way, the turnout was 27% here, quite a bit higher than what we saw in ward 98. And that's not terrible in a middle-class area in a metro during a school holiday in a pretty safe seat. So the DA will say that they are on track on the road to Tshwane, which will be a battleground metro in 2026.The ANC narrowly beat the DA there in 2024 and the DA will look at these results and say their supporters are with them and they'll believe they have a shot at finishing first in Tshwane in the 2026 local government elections. We then go to Sasolburg. We cross the Vaal River…Wayne Sussman (04:17.357)…to the Free State where there was a by-election in another safe DA area. The area of, this is, and I don't have a map of it, but it's a massive ward running across the Vaal River. I don't know the ward, to be honest, doesn't really make sense. It includes a chunk of Sasolburg, then Vaalpark, which is an area, an outlying suburb, next to Sasolburg, and then a close area called, small area…Here the DA lost ground, and the Freedom Front more than doubled their support. So what did the Freedom Front do right here? And this is a lesson for all political parties, compared to Tshwane. The Freedom Front fielded a proportional councillor, a current councillor, as their candidate in this by-election to win the ward, i.e. he serves in the PRC, the proportional capacity, not as the ward councillor. And this councillor is highly popular in the area of the ward he lives in in Sasolburg. And here in this part of Sasolburg, The Freedom Front got 42% in that part of the ward and the DA got 48%. Very, very narrow. And that was one of the reasons why the Freedom Front had such a strong showing. In Vaalpark, the DA got 77% to the vote. So the Freedom Front will say, will take from this that one, choosing the right candidate matters, two, that they have some hope in the Free State. We know historically the Freedom Front have done well in the Free State.And I think the DA's lesson here will be, candidates really matter. And if a candidate is popular in a part of the ward, you can do well. If not popular, you're not going to do so well. So those are the by-elections last night. But Chris, you and I, in our last conversation, we spoke about the fact that there was one by-election the week before, which was in Nelson Mandela Bay in the area of Motherwell, which is an ANC stronghold, the township of Motherwell.Wayne Sussman (06:25.677)And here the ANC went from 75% to 62%. One of the things that you've been speaking about week after week is what is happening to the EFF across the country. The EFF support, they came second here, pretty much held. I think they were 1% up from 15% to 16%. And the party that came third and hurt the ANC was a party we associate with KwaZulu-Natal, a party we associate with Zulu speakers, and this is a part of the country where there are very few, if any, Zulu speakers in Motherwell, was uMkhonto weSizwe. So you're seeing uMkhonto weSizwe hurt the ANC in an ANC stronghold. Now, if this trend, and we've got another by-election coming up in Motherwell in a few weeks' time, if this trend holds, where you see the ANC being hurt by uMkhonto weSizwe and the EFF holding on to their support, I think it's very likely that the ANC will not be the most popular party in Nelson Mandela Bay come 2026. So this is a significant result. Yes, the ANC held the ward, but you're seeing uMkhonto weSizwe make inroads in ANC heartland, in Xhosa-speaking heartland.Chris Steyn (07:44.963)Let us please go back to Tshwane, Wayne, where an African National Congress councillor was assassinated, the one for Ward 10 in Mamelodi.Wayne Sussman (08:00.961)This is tragic. We see this and I always in the articles I write when I speak about it, like mentioning, I think it's important to mention why we have a by-election. And sometimes we have by-elections because of ward councillors dying because they're ill or sick or had a heart attack.But it is absolutely, especially tragic when councillors are murdered. We know a few weeks ago in … Soweto in Johannesburg, a ward councillor was murdered, assassinated, and here in Tshwane in Mamelodi East. By the way, which would be a safe ANC area, there was a hit on the ward councillor. So we need to see more details. Was there a hit because this person was blocking someone from a tender? Was this a hit because this councillor knew something? Was this a hit because there are internal dynamics, factional dynamics within the ANC on the road to 2026? And we know that KwaZulu-Natal has a history of political violence. We now know of three wards, because there was also a by-election recently, also in Soweto where the ward councillor was murdered. This is becoming too common a feature of Gauteng politics - and I hope that it doesn't continue as people vie for positions on the road to 2026-2027. Because just to take one step back, yes, and we've got two weeks of very competitive by-elections coming up next week and the week after that. Yes, but those are not the norm. In many parts of the country, it's whoever wins the DA nomination contest will win that award. Whoever wins the PA nomination contest in the branch will win that award. Whoever wins the ANC branch nomination contest in rural Eastern Cape or Limpopo or Mamelodi will often win that award. And the internal contestation to be the ward candidate can often be…Wayne Sussman (10:18.669)…the difference between someone having a middle class salary for five years and someone being unemployed and unlikely to find a job. So we see this contestation. It's often internal. Again, I don't know if you have some details which I don't have. I was waiting for more details on this. It's very, very worrying. We need to make sure that our ward councillors, and I know we like to complain about our ward councillors. No one deserves to pay the price of losing their life.And this is concerning and let's hope that the SAPS makes some arrests speedily. Because what we also don't want to happen, Chris, is that talented people, ordinary South Africans who choose to represent political parties say, I'm not going to enter politics because I might pay the ultimate price and lose my life here.Chris Steyn (11:11.999)Indeed. Meanwhile, when the nation is reeling from allegations of underworld links between top politicians and top cops and criminals. How could this impact on elections going forward?Wayne Sussman (11:31.222)So a few weeks ago, we saw a stand-off between John Steenhuisen and Cyril Ramaphosa. In my opinion, John Steenhuisen blinked first and ultimately accepted the decision that the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, Andrew Whitfield, would loose his position in the Cabinet, within the Ramaphosa administration. And we thought that this was an issue which was going to have a big impact on our politics. Sunday's press conference by, I think these titles, Lieutenant General Mkhwanazi, you can maybe help me with the formal titles, by Mr Mkhwanazi, was absolutely devastating for a number of reasons.There has been this idea that Senzo Mchunu is one of the good guys in the ANC, one of the star performers of the ANC in this government, one of the few ANC members who are shining. And that someone who was going to play a key role in the next election for the ANC to recover all that lost support in KwaZulu-Natal and be one of the people who could well serve in the Top Six or today the Top 7 within the ANC. And we take a step back and see that, and I hope I'm getting his title right, Lieutenant General Mkhwanazi is one of the, someone who is greatly respected in KwaZulu-Natal, but also respected amongst a good cross section of society, from a class level, from a race level, from a geographic level, but also within the ANC. He was admired by certain sectors of the ANC as well. So the fact that you have this internal contestation with the ANC, and by the way, I'm not saying that was the reason for the ward councillor dying in Mamelodi, being assassinated in Mamelodi East. It might be. This type of contestation, because here I think,Wayne Sussman (13:39.606)Mkhwanazi’s claims go to the heart of the challenge of the ANC, that President Ramaphosa was going to reform the ANC and course correct after the devastating years of Jacob Zuma leading the ANC. That was his message to ANC supporters. And here you have one of his trusted lieutenants, one of his right-hand men, one of the people in the party he's extremely close to, being fingered with the most damning of evidence with ties to the underworld. If you're an ANC member in good standing, if you're an ANC supporter who gets up every time there's a by-election, every time there's a branch meeting, every time there's an election, you don that ANC shirt and go out and knock on doors and you are hoping that President Ramaphosa was going to clean up the ANC and bring good people in, what kind of message does this send? This is going to be challenging for the ANC. I think we saw President Ramaphosa deal decisively with Deputy Minister Andrew Whitfield. Can he deal decisively here? Because he knows, particularly before we enter an election here, the stakes get manifestly higher and KwaZulu-Natal is absolutely key for the ANC - and the many municipalities in the KwaZulu-Natal can be absolutely key. So this is a challenge, a big challenge for the ANC.Chris Steyn (15:04.567)Wayne, let's just get a preview for the next by-election.Wayne Sussman (15:11.499)Yeah, so it's not - and as I just said often like I’ve just I've just reviewed three elections where the DA was expected to win and did win. They won better than expected in two of the wards. Freedom Front hurt them in the other ward. Next week, Chris Steyn, we have four by-elections where we know that in least one, the ward is going to change hands because the ANC win in rural Eastern Cape from an independent.But we have in Nelson Mandela Bay, which we've just spoken about, in the northern part of Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA trying to fend off the Patriotic Alliance and a local party called the Northern Alliance. It's going to be a Battle Royal. Gayton McKenzie will throw everything in that by-election and believe he can win it. Then we go to Polokwane in one of the EFF strongholds where they'll be defending a ward in the Seshego Juju Valley against the ANC. A bitter two-horse race. It'll be neck and neck. And the ANC will really want to hurt the EFF there. And then the final by-election, we've just been speaking a lot about KwaZulu-Natal. We'll be going to the municipality of AbaQulusi, an IFP seat just near the town of Vryheid. But again, fending off from uMkhonto weSizwe, and the ANC will believe that they have an outside shot as well. Every single seat next week, which a party is defending, could well change hands.And by the way, the week after that is another big round of by-elections, where we've seen really competitive races. So if the PA has an incredible run, that is narrative forming for the election. If the ANC does brilliantly in Umfuleni in two weeks time and shuts the EFF out in Polokwane, that is narrative forming. So we have two weeks of by-elections coming up, which can be really narrative forming on the road to the 2026 local government elections.Chris Steyn (17:12.673)Lastly, the Karoo Hoogland now has a Patriotic Alliance Mayor.Wayne Sussman (17:19.765)Yes, so this, by the way, is not the best place if you like warm weather, it's not the most ideal place to be in the middle of July. But it has a Patriotic Alliance mayor, we live in interesting times, who is supported by the Democratic Alliance, who know that in the overwhelming number of councils across the country, the Patriotic Alliance prefers to work with the ANC over the DA. Fraserburg, Sutherland, Williston, these are the towns that make up the Karoo Hoogland. You see it an accommodation of the DA and the PA. How long will that last remains to be seen. But right now there's a PA mayor that used to be an ANC mayor and I think it's a DA speaker. So this is an interesting time.Chris Steyn (18:06.485)Indeed. Thank you. That was Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman speaking to BizNews and I am Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.

Wayne Sussman: Mkhwanazi demolition, Mamelodi assassination - and the latest by-elections

Related Stories

DA in knife-edge lead over the ANC in two metros | The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

Three polls, one story: ANC slides, DA leads Joburg and Tshwane, MK rules eThekwini

BN Daybreak: Threats to kill unravel tender empire, DA's odds in LGEs 2026, US-SA diplomatic fallout

LGEs 2026: The ANC, DA, MKP, EFF, IFP, Freedom Front, Patriotic Alliance, ActionSA