Would ANC survive Ramaphosa’s exit?

A new report by the Social Research Foundation, based on a survey of 3,200 registered voters, investigates the perceptions of chiefly ANC voters towards Ramaphosa and the implications that could follow from his departure as leader of the ANC and the country. It ‘tentatively’ concludes that, should Ramaphosa leave the party, ‘its prospects for sustaining its majority in 2024 are not very good and in the aftermath of a national defeat, its support levels amongst registered voters could well slip to between 30% and 40%’. Look at  the graphs below to gauge the mood of voters. – Sandra Laurence


Ramaphosa crisis a crisis for ANC, too – new report

The ANC’s electoral fortunes ‘are disproportionately tied’ to Cyril Ramaphosa, and whether he stays or goes, the consequences for the ruling party could be severe.

This emerges from a new report by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) based on a survey of 3,200 registered voters. The report investigates the perceptions of chiefly ANC voters towards Ramaphosa and the implications that could follow from his departure as leader of both the ANC and the country.

The researchers ‘tentatively’ conclude that, should Ramaphosa leave the party ‘its prospects for sustaining its majority in 2024 are not very good and in the aftermath of a national defeat its support levels amongst registered voters could well slip to between 30% and 40%’.

However, they add: ‘Yet the damage of the present corruption saga is likely so severe that even were he to remain the prospects for his party remain poor.’

The survey results yield telling evidence of the difficulties the ruling party is facing, and how these are profoundly affected by the crisis surrounding Ramaphosa.

A special session of the ANC’s National Working Committee was to reconvene this afternoon, according to a party statement yesterday. It is also understood that the National Executive Committee (NEC) will meet tomorrow morning.

News24 reports that the NEC was to have met on Friday to discuss Ramaphosa’s fate following the release of an independent panel’s report on the Phala Phala saga, but that the meeting was cancelled when Ramaphosa failed to show up.

The importance of Ramaphosa to his party, and the ramifications of the fallout over the Phala Phala allegations, are borne out by the results of the survey commissioned by the SRF.

It shows that ANC voters are ‘split down the middle on whether conditions in South Africa improved after Mr Ramaphosa became leader of the ANC’.

‘For just over half of ANC voters, Mr Ramaphosa is an extremely important reason behind their continued support for the ANC. Almost two thirds of ANC voters were of the belief that Mr Ramaphosa would eventually succeed in bringing about a much better country to live in.’

The researchers said: ‘If he departed from the ANC in the form of a split then, depending on the circumstances, the support of ANC voters could fragment with less than half remaining loyal to the ANC. Should ANC support levels fall to below 50% in a future election then up to a third of its present voters may look to alternative parties to vote for.’

The survey data suggest that Ramaphosa’s ‘favorability score amongst ANC voters, whilst still very strong, has fallen substantially since he became ANC leader’.

* The survey, conducted telephonically in July among a randomly selected and representative sample of 3 200 registered voters, has a national margin of error of 1.7%. Totals may not add up to 100% where respondents were unsure of their answers.