In the turbulent world of British politics, leadership struggles and strategic manoeuvring dominate the landscape. As Tory MPs grapple with internal dissent and a looming general election, the spotlight falls on Rishi Sunak as their reluctant choice for prime minister. Yet, with dissidents sharpening their critiques and alternatives scarce, the party appears resigned to navigate the storm with Sunak at the helm. Meanwhile, Labour’s Keir Starmer emerges as a formidable opponent, his party poised for gains despite lingering challenges.
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By Martin Ivens
When Anthony Eden, Winston Churchill’s successor as prime minister, failed to stamp his authority on the country, his deputy R.A. Butler came to his ambiguous defense. “He’s the best prime minister we have,” Butler said slyly in a newspaper interview. “We must help him in all his difficulties.” ___STEADY_PAYWALL___ After a round of disastrous defeats in local elections held on Thursday, alleviated by one high-profile victory, Tory members of Parliament have decided to settle for Rishi Sunak as the best prime minister they have. Dissidents within his party, however, won’t be helping Sunak in all his difficulties.
The much-rumored internal party coup against the prime minister appears to be off for now. Sunak’s most vocal right-wing critic, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, came out spitting tacks on Sunday morning, but prefaced her Sunday Telegraph broadside with the bald statement that “changing leader won’t work,” She added, disloyally, that “the hole to dig us out is the PM’s, and it’s time for him to start shoveling.” Braverman’s faction now wants the PM to take the blame for the expected general election defeat.
Boris Johnson’s disgruntled followers also appear to be giving up the game. “We’re working with what we’ve got,” conceded Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, who’d already submitted a letter of no confidence in Sunak prior to the poll. On Sunday, Jenkyns demanded that Sunak bring back her fallen hero in a campaigning role. Johnson certainly retains a flair for publicity — he was turned away from his local voting booth for failing to bring proof of identity.
Given the rapid turnover of recent leaders — David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss — the rebels’ options are in any case limited. It would take the signatures of 52 MPs to trigger the fifth Tory leadership battle in eight years. Although the voters and most party members would dread such a contest, right-wing malcontents wouldn’t hesitate to strike if they had the numbers. It appears they don’t.
Who would lead such a desperate enterprise before the election due to be held later this year? The most credible candidates for the job, Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt, have already ruled themselves out, the latter dismissing speculation with the merry quip, “Yes, I too have read that I’m to be installed like a new boiler in No. 10 next week.”
Learning from past mistakes, the government played the expectations game a little more skillfully in advance of Thursday’s contests, with Tory spinners focused on the success or failure of two high-profile candidates who had a good chance of winning, rather than national swings or numbers of councilors. Even so, they had mixed results.
Ben Houchen, the party’s high-spending mayor of Teeside, in north east England, hung on due to his personal following. Houchen turned up at the election count without his Conservative blue rosette and made no mention of Sunak in his victory speech, though later the two made a joint public appearance.
Andy Street, the poster-boy Tory mayor of the West Midlands, sought Boris Johnson’s endorsement, not the PM’s, but lost his contest narrowly after a recount. Labour retained the London mayoralty under the low-wattage leadership of Sadiq Khan for a record breaking third term — fitting punishment for a Conservative machine that failed to mount a credible campaign.
In their post-election analysis for the Sunday Times, psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher calculate that the results translate into a seven-point lead for Labour over the Tories nationally. The BBC’s analysis puts Labour nine points ahead at 34%. Both suggest better results for Sunak than the latest YouGov poll, which showed that the Conservatives have less than 20% of national support.
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is the beneficiary of both anti-Tory tactical voting and the challenge to the government’s right flank from the anti-immigrant Reform party, which missed knocking the Conservative Party into third place in Blackpool by just 117 votes. The opposition can take comfort that its vote was distributed evenly across England, rather than piling up majorities in already safe seats as in some earlier contests.
But Starmer has yet to prove himself heir to Tony Blair as an election winner. The party’s tally was much lower than Labour’s performance in 1995 under Blair, not long before his first landslide victory against the Tories. Many Muslim voters, disaffected by Starmer’s full-throated support for Israel early in its Gaza campaign, stayed at home or voted for minor parties.
Still, Starmer is also the best leader Labour has. His party now polls well on economics and defense where it once was weakest, and is set to make big gains in Scotland from the implosion of the nationalists there. Rallings and Thrasher’s analysis also implies that the voters will behave the same way in the local elections and the nationals; they often don’t.
As for Sunak, the impending general election and the perceived illegitimacy of installing a third Tory prime minister in a row without consulting the voters may keep him safe. Sunak has a few months more to live with all his difficulties.
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