Minister Naledi Pandor emerges as a potential ANC leadership contender in South Africa’s upcoming election, backed by key figures and a faction within the party. Her international actions signal a focus on justice and diplomacy. Pandor’s potential presidency could prioritize education, economic revitalization, and social justice, possibly leading to stricter BEE regulations. Her leadership style may clash with traditional ANC norms, yet her productivity could garner support despite ideological differences.
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Dr. Marius Oosthuizen*
It is necessary to explore the future if one wants to shape it. As South Africa goes to the polls, the question of national political leadership is central to South Africa’s future, and should be the concern of every citizen.
So, what could happen as a result of the elections? One scenario is a leadership change from within the ANC, with Minister Naledi Pandor taking power. Is a Pandor Presidency possible and what could one expect from it?
How Pandor came to Power
In a surprising twist in the ANC ahead of the national elections, Minister Naledi Pandor, who had largely been perceived as a steady hand in her portfolios, developed a newfound ambition for higher political office, supported in the shadows by Minister Gwede Mantashe. Recognizing the benefits to him of a realignment within the party, Minister Enoch Godongwana too, was persuaded to betray the incumbent and back Pandor’s cause.
Having an understanding of the self-effacing nature of internal ANC politics, the triad sought strategic allies to navigate the murky waters of a potential “palace coup” on their behalf. Their tactical manoeuvre was to co-opt Deputy President Paul Mashatile, along with Premiers Panyaza Lesufi and Mxolisi Dukwana, who were eager to instigate an internal revolt that could lay the groundwork for their ascent, doing the dirty work by driving a wedge between current allies.
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To solidify their position, the Pandor gang garnered the opportunistic support of Minister Lindiwe Zulu, Premier Nomusa Dube-Ncube, and Ministers Thandi Modise and Thembi Nkadimeng, who saw their influence dwindling in the current regime and sought to reclaim their relevance through a shift in leadership. Their support added substantial weight to the emerging faction by recasting it as a principled ploy towards “a time for woman in leadership”.
Unease rippled through the media when Army Chief, General Rudzani Maphwanya, and Policy Commissioner Fannie Masemola, lent their voices to the fray, raising concerns about the role of the security cluster in the unfolding scenario. Tension heightened in the ANC when increasingly isolated and disgruntled Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, seeking retribution for past political slights, spoke out as an elder-supporter of the new leadership being mooted. Former President Thabo Mbeki’s call for unity in the party were dismissed.
In this landscape and amid the pressure of diminishing support for the ANC, Pandor’s political message of “Our time has come!” gained momentum, and the party now faced another shakeup, reminiscent of the removal of President Mbeki and fall from grace of Zuma, as a new face of vocal and strident ANC leadership emerged.
Unpacking Pandor’s perspective
Minister Pandor has made international waves this year by leading the charge for a case against Israel at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to their actions in Gaza, calling the Israeli offensive a “war crime”. The minister formally instituted the case after having controversially spoken over the phone with the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in the wake of the attack on Israel, reportedly to discuss getting humanitarian aid to Palestine.
Apart from the grave and tragic issue of the Israel-Palestinian situation, the question for South Africans is, what do we learn about Dr. Pandor from these events?
We know that the minister also spoke on the phone with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in which they reportedly reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-South Africa partnership and cooperation on shared priorities, including health, trade, and energy.
Her comments at the fifth BRICS STI summit, in Hangzhou, China, as early as July 2017 indicate that she is in favour of multilateral solutions to global problems, and supportive of greater cooperation with China and BRICS partners.
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We see from her comments that the role of government is central in her mind and that South Africa could learn from its BRICS partners, especially China. What we learn is that Pandor does not pander, but operates on principle – even if those principles irk her critics.
At home, Pandor has been a true believer in “transformation”, having focussed her PhD studies at the University of Pretoria up to 2018, on “Contested meanings in Transformation in Higher Education in Post-Apartheid South Africa”. Pandor’s reading of “transformation” is nuanced and reflective, but predictably anchored in the “inclusion” of black South Africans in the institutional life of South Africa. She wrote in her PhD thesis
“I discovered in the course of my research that apartheid policy in education achieved a range of unexpected outcomes. One of these that was touched upon by a participant was to unite young students of different races in the fight against apartheid. One participant reported that as a young white man from an Afrikaans speaking family it was at university that he discovered injustice and learnt to strive for justice with fellow students of different race groups.”
What we learn from these windows into the mind of Dr. Pandor is that she is a true believer in societal change and committed to engendering justice, at least from her perspective.
This is born out in her engagements in Africa, such as by her remarks at the African Union in April 2023, saying, “We hope … the people of Africa will realise that conflict is what is causing us to experience under-development and that peace is the only route to development, and so all of us must exercise every effort to ensure that we enjoy peace on the African continent.”
Her societal perspective is seemingly informed by a communitarian lens, demonstrated when speaking at the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) in 2013 on World Refugee Day, as then Home Affairs Minister Pandor affirmed the centrality of the family unit as a building block of societies, stating, “today there are more divided families than together families.”
On the economy, Pandor seems to be pragmatic, saying in 2022 to the Heads of Mission Conference at DIRCO, “if we are to achieve our national priorities of addressing the triple challenges of poverty, unemployment, and inequality in South Africa, it is the job of our Heads of Mission to champion the message that South Africa is open for business”.
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Pandor’s Policy Agenda
In a hypothetical presidency under Dr. Pandor, South Africa is likely to emphasise a pro-Global South diplomacy, and domestically, focus on education, economic revitalization, and social justice with an emphasis on accelerating access for talented black South Africans. Pandor would likely be tougher on South Africa’s North American and European friends, and more willing to live with the ethical paradoxes inherent in doing business with South Africa’s authoritarian and statist allies around the world.
One might foresee stricter Black Economic Empowerment regulations, probably emphasising the need for human capital investments by the private sector. The business community in South Africa, which is still what one might describe as Anglo-Americanin their business culture, would take time to warm to Pandor. Also, it is unclear whether her state-centric approach and preachy tone, would endear her among leaders who have been frustrated by the ANC’s ineptitude and are desperately looking for pragmatic partnership from the state.
As a leader, given Pandor’s professional and personal achievements, she is likely to be tough on discipline in government and feel like an outsider among her party peers, who have grown accustomed to non-performance and mediocre delivery as the standard.
Not everyone will like Pandor’s politics, but they may appreciate her productivity as president.
Read also:
- NAJBD’s unconvincing attack on Naledi Pandor: Iqbal Jassat
- 🔒 FT – Naledi Pandor: Bringing SA to its knees would be self-sabotage for the US
- Zuma-backed MK party proposes tax hikes ahead of SA elections
*Dr. Marius Oosthuizen is a scenario planner and writes in his own capacity.
