Alec Hogg (00:05):
Well, Rob Hersov, here we are in your harmonious abode, with a beautiful sea view behind you. And you’ve been pretty busy since we had our last chat. But, more interestingly, you’re coming to the Berg in August. It will be nearly five years, can you believe it, since that Voetsek ANC speech — that fateful speech. How did your life change since then?

Rob Hersov (00:34):
It changed immeasurably, forever. That was the most consequential speech I ever made. But I wanted to say: Dis lekker by die see. I had to get that out. For an original Vaalie, I have to say that.

Alec Hogg (00:50):
What are you going to be talking about in August, Rob? It’s very hard to follow up five years on. What I’d like you to say is: that’s the scenario that existed at that point in time, and this is what has surprised me since then — and, in fact, this is what I’ve been happily surprised by.

Rob Hersov (01:04):
Look, fundamentally, there’s a resilience in South Africa that never ceases to surprise me or anyone else. I still am very much a supporter of Magnus Heystek’s views that the best money, the best returns and the safest money are offshore. I still believe that. I still believe South Africa is uninvestable, broadly, but there are pockets of excellence, pockets of resilience and pockets of survival that just surprise the hell out of me.

And one of them is my wife, who loves living in South Africa, doesn’t want to leave, and says South Africa is worth fighting for. So if that attitude comes out in a New Zealander living in South Africa, you can only imagine how extraordinary the local South Africans are — and we know it.

Rob Hersov (01:59):
“Is South Africa uninvestable?” is what I’m going to be talking about. Instead of “Is South Africa investable?”, I want to talk about why things just keep hanging in, despite all the pummelling South African businesspeople and investors take in this country.

And maybe, as it’s before the municipal elections, we’ve got to take this investment period quite seriously because if things really swing away from the ANC and towards what I call “the good guys” — you can collate whoever they are — then I think it might be a very good time to invest in certain asset classes in South Africa prior to those municipals, Joburg property being one of them.

Alec Hogg (02:46):
That’s a big call. We had a piece on BizNews this morning, actually on Daybreak, where Giulietta from Currency was saying how Joburg is just about ready to default. If it doesn’t deliver its financials for June 2025, Moody’s are — well, a downgrade or pretty much a downgrade, a no-grade. But the reality is things are going tough in Joburg. We’ll talk about that in a moment.

But just the contemporary stuff that’s going on right now: Cyril Ramaphosa. There’s a lot of confusion about whether he is going to now finally be ejected or whether he’s going to serve out his term. What’s your thinking?

Rob Hersov (03:16):
Well, he must do his day in court. That, I think, is fundamental. Donald Trump did his day in court. He faced up to a huge number of mostly ludicrous lawsuits, mostly politicised lawsuits. This is not a politicised lawsuit. It’s been pushed by the EFF, yes, political tactics. But, in my view, he is guilty as sin. What was it, $500-something thousand dollars in a sofa?

That money never even made it to this Sudanese businessman who was buying buffalo from Cyril, or the other way around. The buffalo were never transferred. I would say he needs to tell us what he did, and tell us honestly, and then we judge him.

Alec Hogg (04:04):
But if someone found $680,000 — I think that was the number — in your sofa, in one of your properties, and then you get held responsible for it, surely that’s unfair? I know there’s a hell of a lot more that goes to it.

Rob Hersov (04:34):
If it was me, I’d say: “It wasn’t me.” I should have opened that. If there was a reason, I would have given the reason. Absolutely. If I’m innocent, I would have said: “Here is exactly the truth. Let’s go.” The guilty don’t want their day in court if they can help it. And then they play the Stalingrad defence, or they have political reasons to defer it — exactly what Cyril is doing.

Alec Hogg (04:52):
But the business community — where are they standing on this? The input we’re getting is that they are saying: Cyril, don’t go. We need you there.

Rob Hersov (04:52):
Does the business community ever stand on any political issues? I mean, do they? Their mentality is: be careful what you wish for, because what comes next?

In their minds, Paul Mashatile is an immediate ally of the EFF. He will collapse the GNU, run into the arms — or have the EFF run into his arms — and probably do deals with MK. Fikile Mbalula is a glad-handing, not-very-smart populist who will continue doing what Cyril is doing. He will probably accelerate it, because he’s got to make a mark for himself. So he’ll be worse than Cyril, if you can believe that.

Rob Hersov (05:49):
Another CR17 — and you can imagine the business community jumping up and down like clapping seals, gushing to be supportive of Patrice Motsepe. But I think the average voter learned their lesson with Cyril, thinking he was a successful businessman, a free-market proponent and somebody who could actually make good decisions on their behalf, and good decisions on behalf of the economy.

He hasn’t done that. He has only doubled down on the madness of the Zuma regime. And actually, he has been, in many ways, worse.

Alec Hogg:
Worse than Zuma?

Rob Hersov (06:14):
Not as corrupt. He didn’t let everyone pillage and steal. But he extended the cadre deployment policy. He’s added EWC. He’s added way worse rules in BEE. He’s scared away foreign investors. And he’s done nothing you can hang your hat on that makes any sense whatsoever, except forming the GNU.

I supported the GNU. I still do. But I think the GNU is going to have its reckoning coming up to the municipals.

Rob Hersov (07:04):
So, to answer your question, Patrice Motsepe. I think Prince Mashele is right when he says he cannot resuscitate a dying horse. And I think he’s right. I think this will end his reputation as an extraordinarily successful, generous businessman. This will not be good for Patrice.

People are going to come out and attack him. He’s going to, for the first time in his life, go through, to a greater extent, what I went through: having haters, having threats, being attacked from left, right and centre. The gloss will wear off very, very quickly. And the business community, led by that dreadful Martin Kingston, will come to the conclusion, once again, that they did the wrong thing.

Rob Hersov (07:30):
So who else is there? Mothlanthe? I’ve heard that he is being dusted out of retirement to run the ANC. Again, that’s kind of a weak serving. The ANC — I’m entirely in Prince Mashele’s camp — the ANC is as good as gone. There will be little breaths from the dead horse, the dying horse, but it’s gone.

Alec Hogg (07:59):
You mentioned Prince a couple of times, and we know at the last BizNews Conference — and he’s coming in August as well — he was talking about the momentum, or the movement rather, that he’s putting together. Are you seeing any momentum there? He hasn’t announced anything.

Rob Hersov (08:29):
I’ve picked up clues that an extraordinary guy like Wayne Duvenage is involved. I don’t know in what way. And he’s creating this council of extraordinary people. That’s what I like calling it.

The extraordinary people have undergraduate degrees, so they’re educated. They have been a success, achieved great leadership in certain areas — whether it’s business, activism, politics or economics. They’re recognised people who are successful. They are held in esteem by the majority of South Africans for what they’ve done in their chosen field. And they have not been in politics ever. They haven’t been in politics before. They’re not tainted by any policies or decisions or endorsements they might have made that might sour the new South Africa’s interest in them.

And I think that is an extraordinary thing to do. Firstly, just to see who they are. I’m sure that 90% of the people on this council I will agree with.

Alec Hogg (09:16):
Will you fund them?

Rob Hersov (09:40):
I definitely will put money behind them, without a doubt, and I think everybody should. Look, I will still continue to support the FF Plus, Patriotic Alliance, parties like that, verbally and financially. But I will definitely support Prince Mashele. And I think everyone should consider doing that.

We need that pull. We need that new — if he’s going to launch a new political party, we need that political party.

Alec Hogg (09:59):
What’s interesting for those who watch the Rob Hersov interviews is that you were very forthright in your support of Gayton McKenzie.

Rob Hersov:
I still am.

Alec Hogg:
But he’s a populist. And now, on the other hand, you’ve got Prince Mashele, very unashamedly saying elites have to run the country, he believes. So how do you put those two together?

Rob Hersov (10:21):
If you match their manifestos — and I haven’t seen Prince’s manifesto, but it’s pretty clear that it’s centre. It’s a Judeo-Christian, capitalist, libertarian, free-market, rule-of-law, close-the-borders, focused-on-merit, non-racial manifesto. Unquestionably.

And that is what the DA is, the Freedom Front Plus is, and the Patriotic Alliance is. And ActionSA and BOSA — not Rise Mzansi. Everyone needs to wake up and realise that is a leftist. That is anti-Israel, anti-Semite, I would say. I think his party must disappear off the face of the earth.

Rob Hersov (11:18):
ACDP — excellent party. So Prince’s manifesto, if he’s launching a political party, which I think he is — I think we all think he is — is in that grouping.

And if it is to be in that grouping, if it is to raise significant money, and it’s going to need a billion rand plus to establish a new political party in all the places that matter, with real people and real logistics behind it, it’s going to need real money.

And to get the real money, particularly from people who are backing those other good guys — I call them the good guys — he will need to prove that he can get non-voters, disillusioned ANC people, people who want to leave the ANC but don’t see an option for them. He needs to focus on those and not take away from the DA, FF Plus, Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA.

So he needs to prove that. If he can prove it, if he can show it, he’ll raise the money. No question.

Alec Hogg (12:05):
The GNU itself — you say a moment of reckoning. How do you think the business community is going to react to that? Because we hear all the time that the business community is so grateful that there is a government of national unity.

Rob Hersov (12:28):
I understand why the business community is very supportive of the GNU, because it’s created political stability. Frans Cronje would say democracy is moving forward based on his polls. I’m prepared to accept that, but I feel it’s very slow, overly slow.

And so the business community likes the GNU. It’s stable. The DA, the Freedom Front Plus, Patriotic Alliance — ActionSA aren’t in it — are having an impact and a positive impact in the areas in which they manage, but not on economic policy and not on foreign policy and not on the policies that matter.

Alec Hogg (12:53):
I’m interested in Frans Cronje. He’s a guy with a lot of reputation. And he says this morning in the Common Sense piece that Geordin Hill-Lewis — should he or should he not rescue Cyril?

Rob Hersov (13:23):
Okay. Business wants him to rescue Cyril. Should Geordin rescue Cyril or shouldn’t he?

The pros for rescuing Cyril are to extract — and here he’s got to be tough. You can’t just do it glad-handed and for free. He’s got to extract real value. And that real value, if he makes it transparent, would be better.

He needs to say to Cyril, and make it transparent: the DA wants finance, trade and industry, foreign policy — two out of those three. It would be interesting to see which one Cyril gives up if he does. And for that, we will throw our votes behind a non-impeachment.

Because we think you may be guilty, you may not. The courts will decide that. But we think you are the best bet for the country and for the GNU. You need to make that the point.

Put the court case aside. That needs to follow its own course. We’re not, unlike others, going to obstruct that. We need you to have your day in court, but we’re not going to impeach you. We need you to stay. We believe in you.

Rob Hersov (14:19):
He’ll also get other parties. He’ll probably get Gayton McKenzie doing the same thing. But he doesn’t bring the numbers.

Alec Hogg (14:42):
Gayton seems to be very supportive of the whole GNU project. And he does also seem to be gathering a lot of momentum, with the PA winning its first by-election against the DA just this past week. It seems to be having a pretty good strike rate in the local communities.

Rob Hersov (15:12):
Gayton is very popular. He’s a populist, popular. He’s doing a very good job at his ministry — sport, arts and culture. He takes criticism, but everyone does.

He’s cut costs. He’s tackled the cadres. He doesn’t announce these things because it’s never clever to announce you’re firing cadres and getting rid of cadres, like Leon Schreiber has done, like Dan Marokane and Mteto Nyati did at Eskom. They don’t announce it; they just do it quietly, because announcing it brings problems.

Rob Hersov (15:34):
So Gayton has been very popular, has done a very good job, and politically, to me, he’s a bit too, as Neil de Beer says, the apple-carrier for Cyril Ramaphosa. And when I raised that issue with Gayton, he said: “I’ll own that. I believe Cyril Ramaphosa is the right guy to lead the GNU and he should stay. So if I’m an apple-carrier, so be it.”

He gave me his position. He said: “I will support him when it makes sense, but stand against him when it doesn’t.” And he stood against BELA. He stood against the ANC’s anti-Israel stance. He’s pro-Israel. He’s been a man of principle and he is centre-right. And I like centre-right.

Alec Hogg (16:24):
But Rob, he has also supported Joburg. He’s continued Johannesburg, and that is just a big disaster. I’m sure any time you visit, Gayton must wonder: what the heck is he doing keeping these guys in power?

Rob Hersov:
Gayton, what are you doing keeping those guys in power? You should answer that.

Alec Hogg:
Yeah, for sure. What about the Cape? With the PA gathering momentum and the DA supposedly comfortable, we have a local election coming up on 4 November. How are you seeing that transpiring?

Rob Hersov (16:52):
The PA is going to do very well in the Western Cape, pockets of the Eastern Cape, pockets of the Northern Cape, and pockets all over the country at the municipal level. National, I don’t know. There’s a long way to run, so let’s not talk about that.

The PA will go from wherever they were — 1% or one-and-a-bit percent — and they’ll be heading up towards 4%, 4.5%. The Freedom Front Plus, too, will also see a big, big surge. And they deserve it, big time. Not that the PA doesn’t.

But Gayton’s message is mainly to coloured folk: the DA is taking you for granted. You saw what a white government was like under apartheid. You saw what a black government was like under the ANC since 1994. Neither has been good for you. Isn’t it time for a coloured leader?

That tells it like it is. People like that message.

Rob Hersov (18:02):
And he’s improving with his council that he’s appointing. When Knysna was a disaster and he was taking a lot of the blame for it, he pulled out of that council, removed his people and said it’s not working.

This Knysna council — the Save Knysna Council, SKC — is coming together as a potential political party to run in the municipals.

So the Patriotic Alliance will do well. But I reckon, come the time, the Patriotic Alliance and the DA and the FF Plus will, in the municipals, exit the ANC in toto from the Western Cape. It’ll be bye-bye ANC in the Western Cape altogether. And the PA and the DA will work together. Mark my words. They will.

Alec Hogg (18:32):
As you do. Looking ahead — or globally, rather — just this morning there was news of a massive attack by Ukrainian drones on Moscow.

Rob Hersov:
Moscow region.

Alec Hogg:
Moscow region. Well, they haven’t hit it before. There are four people dead so far, or reported to be dead. But is this a turning point in that war?

Rob Hersov (19:15):
The turning point has already happened. The turning point happened in the previous spring offensive, the winter offensive, and now leading into the spring offensive.

Russia is not gaining any more ground, and they’re losing more soldiers into the meat grinder than they can recruit. Russia is losing the Ukraine war. And most BizNews and other viewers have kind of forgotten about Ukraine. You used to have a separate entry on BBC and other websites, and you could go click “the Ukraine war”. Now it just falls into international news, if it falls in at all.

Rob Hersov (19:44):
But this attack on the Moscow region — the Moscow region is the most defended region in Russia, because Putin can’t afford to have Ukraine attack Moscow. Then the Muscovites, who are barely contributing to this war, other than financially — they’re not sending their sons. All the sons are coming from the outer regions, all being recruited in Africa to fight the war.

Once you start hitting Moscow, the message comes straight back to the Russians that matter: you’re losing.

Do you know this war has gone on for longer than the Second World War in Europe? Four and a half years. The Second World War in Europe was four years. This is longer than the Second World War. Have a think about that. And what has Russia gained? A minority percentage of Ukraine. And they’re stuck.

Rob Hersov (20:40):
They’re still using old techniques and tactics. Ukraine is using super-modern techniques and tactics, not committing troops, committing technology.

Ukrainian technology — not just drones in the air or knocking down drones in the air, but naval drones. The Black Sea Fleet is gone. It’s been sunk or is in hiding. And ground drones. And using incredible information they’re unquestionably getting from the Americans and others.

They are targeting individual soldiers, targeting troops, targeting tanks. Russia has lost basically the majority of its tank army. And they’re not committing their modern tanks any more. So they’re not able to recruit soldiers. They’re losing equipment at a rate of knots. They’re losing soldiers at a rate greater than how they can replenish them. They are losing the war.

ANC, you once again picked the wrong side, picked the wrong policy.

Alec Hogg (21:32):
But if Putin is losing the war in Ukraine by not winning, isn’t Trump losing the war in the Middle East by not winning as well?

Rob Hersov (21:57):
No. Trump has got nothing to lose other than his political primaries. But I think he’s got so many surprises up his sleeve. He’ll hold the Senate. You heard it here first. He will hold the Senate. House, maybe not so sure. But the Senate will be 51-49. You heard it here first.

I have a tendency to be right, but not always. On balance, I’m right.

Rob Hersov (22:22):
He’s just now sitting back. He’s got three massive carrier fleets out there. Everyone is reinforced now with anti-drone and anti-air defences. The Ukrainians are defending the Gulf states with equipment. And the UAE attacked Iran last week. I don’t know if you know that.

Iran is losing, I don’t know, $500 million a day or something like that. They’re going to run out of money very quickly. Their storage tanks are full. There are no tankers available to pick up the oil and take it to the ultimate buyers.

There’s no way they’ve been able to rearm effectively. They might have smuggled some stuff across the border from Russia or China, land borders. But what do you bring in a truck? You have to have a hell of a lot of trucks to bring the equipment they need.

And they’re continually being assassinated and knocked out. The Israelis are not talking about it. The Americans are not talking about it. But there are mysterious explosions in Tehran — mysterious explosions — and they always blame it on pipes bursting. That’s a lot.

Alec Hogg:
Yeah, right.

Rob Hersov (23:19):
Trump is sitting back and saying: America is selling so much oil right now because all the Europeans — gas and oil — are going to America to buy their gas and oil. So America is actually benefiting from the Strait of Hormuz being closed, in a weird way.

Alec Hogg (23:49):
How do you see that impacting South Africa, those two big things going on in the world? Because right now, with the Ukraine war and with the Middle Eastern war and the uncertainty, the commodities supercycle is quite firm. Commodities are doing okay, and the stock markets. But unfortunately, we as South Africa can’t get our products to the ports to take advantage of this. But if those two wars were to end, how would that affect this country?

Rob Hersov (24:18):
Look, we’re going to go through some pain at the gas tank. The ANC is going to go through a lot of pain. They’ve lost all their allies. China is not going to dive in and protect the ANC. They’re working out deals with America. They’re not going to do anything that upsets America unnecessarily.

We are on the B-list for China — even the C-list. Russia hasn’t got any money left. They’re not going to be throwing money at the ANC to pay their bills any more. Iran certainly can’t do it. And the lady can’t fly back and forth with suitcases.

So the ANC is in a lot of trouble. They’ve run out of allies. I don’t know who they’re going to go to now. Patrice Motsepe, maybe. Maybe he’s their last remaining funder. That wouldn’t be a good look for him.

Alec Hogg (24:50):
That funding is quite an important issue, maybe, to close off with when we get to the elections. It’s well known that there are these things called top-ups. In other words, you pull people across from another political party because they’re popular and they’re going to pull the votes, and you top up what they would get from the municipal salary through the coffers of the party itself.

Rob Hersov (25:20):
Now the ANC, if it doesn’t have money, is going to lose that trump card. I think they’re going to struggle with T-shirts, KFC and buses to the voting poll, and it’s going to hammer them way harder than anyone else.

So they deserve it. They deserve to get hammered. And I think the municipals are going to have us jumping for joy at the result — except for one result: MK will take KZN.

Alec Hogg (25:53):
That’s the one result where we’re going to go: yikes. What are the implications of that? Having said that, you’ve said: let it go, just cut it loose.

Rob Hersov (25:53):
Well, if KZN succeeds and becomes the Kingdom of Zululand, good luck to them. Then there’s more likelihood that we can get CapeXit. But who knows?

Alec Hogg:
Are you still in favour of that?

Rob Hersov (26:23):
It’s a dream. It’s one of those things you lie in bed and say: wouldn’t it be incredible? A self-governing country in charge of our own affairs. Patriotic Alliance, DA and FF Plus — centre, centre-right, or believing in the things that I believe in — all with identical manifestos.

I think it would be a fantastic thing, but it’s highly unlikely.

Alec Hogg (26:42):
Rob Hersov, seeing you in your backyard with the sea behind you, it’s been really a pleasure. I see at last the sun is coming out, so it will warm us up a little. We won’t have to wear these jerseys for too long.

Rob Hersov:
Alec, always a pleasure. Love the tribe, and I love being on BizNews. And I’m really looking forward to August.

Alec Hogg:
As are the tribe already. Bookings are really, really starting to hum now. So I’m sure they will be on tenterhooks waiting for your five-year update.

Rob Hersov:
Thank you, Alec.

Alec Hogg (27:12):
Rob Hersov is a global entrepreneur. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.

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