From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com
© 2024 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.
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The Economist
Ronald Lamola’s view counts: he may be the next president ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Since the general election of May 29th South Africa has been asking how long its new government of national unity (GNU) will last. The 11-party pact, anchored by the African National Congress (ANC) and the ex-opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), came about because the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time. Despite some bickering, the two main parties in the union seem keen to stick it out, at least for a while.
The novelty of the GNU has obscured another important change. Of the 32 appointments Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president, made to his bloated cabinet, the most intriguing was that of Ronald Lamola as foreign minister. The replacement of Naledi Pandor with the 40-year-old has raised hopes that South Africa wishes to reset relations with the West after years of rising tensions and ahead of the G20 summit in the country next year. It is also a signal that Mr Ramaphosa sees the youngest ANC member of his cabinet as a potential successor. The Economist recently spoke to him in his first interview with a foreign newspaper in his new job.
Under Ms Pandor South Africa’s diplomacy became rather undiplomatic, at least towards America and Europe. “Zealous”, “self-righteous” and “activist”, are some of the words used by Western interlocutors to describe the 70-year-old. Beloved by left-wingers, she irked her Western counterparts, who increasingly resented being lectured on the apparent hypocrisy of their foreign policies.
Her posturing contributed to the belief that, though nominally “non-aligned”, South Africa was generally siding with anti-Western countries. It has repeatedly abstained on UN votes condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It held naval drills with Russia and China on the first anniversary of the conflict. In May 2023 America’s ambassador alleged that a Russian ship, the Lady R, had picked up weapons at a naval base near Cape Town a few months earlier (the South African government denies this). Last year Mr Ramaphosa hosted the BRICS summit at which Iran was invited to join the bloc. Ms Pandor attracted the ire of Israel by speaking to Hamas ten days after its attacks on October 7th and by visiting Tehran soon after. She championed South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
In February the cumulative effect of these moves led America’s House of Representatives to introduce a bill that, if enacted, would lead to a “comprehensive review” of bilateral relations. Though it would carry no automatic sanction, it would be a bad signal for South Africa. America is South Africa’s fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment, its second-largest trade partner, and its biggest source of aid. Ms Pandor’s visit to Washington in March failed to placate American lawmakers; according to several accounts she only confirmed their fears about South Africa’s leanings. Whether the country should still enjoy a preferential trade deal with America under the African Growth and Opportunity Act is openly discussed in Washington.
Mr Lamola will be more emollient. He can laugh at himself: when asked why the president gave him the job, he does a self-deprecating impression of Mr Ramaphosa pointing to him at random. Early talks with his American and British counterparts have gone well. He wants to meet American lawmakers soon.
The limits of cakeism
The substance of policy will probably change less than the style. Like all ANC ministers he is a creature of the party. He wants South Africa “to keep the world in check” on human-rights issues. He says that the ANC will not turn on Russia because “it’s not easy to just abandon your friends”. As justice minister in the last cabinet, he was also heavily involved in bringing the ICJ case.
But there will be shifts in emphasis. Mr Lamola points out that it is in South Africa’s national interest to have both “south-south co-operation” and “south-north co-operation”. Under him diplomacy may look closer to non-alignment in fact as well as rhetoric. Expect a return to the standard cake-and-eat-it approach of the ANC since Nelson Mandela, who seemed as happy in the company of Muammar Qaddafi and Fidel Castro as he was with Bill Clinton and the Spice Girls. “And we are not selling arms to anyone,” adds Mr Lamola, in an effort to draw a line under the saga of Lady R.
The new coalition government will encourage a less combative foreign policy. “The voters have forced us to work together,” says Mr Lamola. The DA, a pro-Western party, has a de facto veto on policy, so will help curb the ANC’s instincts. That is not saying much, but the new cabinet is arguably the least anti-Western since 1994, helped by the replacement of Thandi Modise, a Russophile, as defence minister.
Less clear is whether South Africa can adapt to a changing world. Cakeism had few costs when globalisation was all the rage. But it is harder to be “friends with everyone”, as Mr Lamola aspires to be, when there are downsides to getting too close to one side of the division between the West and the rest. America’s draft legislation and Japan’s decision last year not to invite South Africa to the G7 (as had been the norm) are early signals of hardening attitudes. South Africa—a small, open economy—is at risk, should full access to Western markets and technology become conditional on the company it keeps. Its best hope is that the West itself is unsure about what mix of carrots and sticks might influence its behaviour.
South Africa, for its part, must reckon with its declining clout. Its absolute power has been weakened by economic stagnation and defence cuts. Its relative power has been diluted by the rise of other middle powers. Its moral authority has been dimmed by its reluctance to speak out against atrocities on the continent such as those in Sudan—and by vast corruption under the ANC’s rule.
To his credit, Mr Lamola says the ANC has to do a better job of governing South Africa well, otherwise it will face more bruising elections. He may even lead his party into the next one. By giving him this senior job, Mr Ramaphosa has signalled that Mr Lamola could be in line to succeed him. He will have competition: Paul Mashatile, the deputy president, and Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general, are expected to run for the top spot. But with his patron’s support the new foreign minister has a chance of being South Africa’s first millennial leader.
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