South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU), formed after the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in 2024, is a major shift in the country’s politics. Comprised mainly of the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the coalition has shown early successes, boosting public confidence and economic performance. However, internal tensions and South Africa’s deep-rooted challenges, such as corruption and infrastructure issues, threaten its future. To thrive, the GNU must deliver long-term reforms and navigate political scepticism.
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From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com
© 2024 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.
The Economist
Now for the hard part ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
For most of its modern history South Africa has been governed by a single dominant party. The National Party, the architects of apartheid, were in charge from 1948 to 1994. After white-minority rule ended the African National Congress (ANC) became the hegemonic force. Following years of corruption and economic stagnation its pre-eminence was finally checked at general elections in May. The ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, forcing it to form a coalition government in order to stay in power.
That arrangement, known as the Government of National Unity (GNU), is a seismic shift for the fledgling democracy. Almost 100 days on from its formation—the cabinet was sworn in on July 3rd—it has boosted confidence. Nearly three times as many South Africans think the GNU is doing well (57.9%) than think it is doing poorly (21.3%), according to a poll conducted in September by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), a local think-tank. The rand has risen against the dollar and the index of shares on the Johannesburg stock exchange has seen record highs. There are palpably lekker (nice) vibes for the first time since Cyril Ramaphosa replaced Jacob Zuma as president in 2018. Yet that episode is instructive. If the fillip from the GNU is to last longer than the fleeting “Ramaphoria” did, the government must fix the chronic problems holding back sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy.
On paper the GNU is made up of 11 parties. In practice there are only two that matter: the ANC and the erstwhile official opposition, a liberal party known as the Democratic Alliance (DA). They have 20 and 6 ministers respectively of the 32 sitting in cabinet, and 41% and 22% of the seats in parliament. The government’s success and survival depends on them, not the myriad minor parties. These were mostly brought in by Mr Ramaphosa in an effort to placate those in the ANC who are angry that the party of black liberation has joined with the DA, which is seen by many of them as a “white party”.
The GNU is not cohesive. There is no systematic way of making decisions. Ad hoc is its modus operandi. One senior figure describes working in government as a bit like fighting with a jellyfish. The civil service, hollowed out by the ANC, lacks effective bureaucrats.
Yet the vacuum that is the South African state creates an opportunity for those with the vim to fill it. For the most part this has meant DA ministers. Leon Schreiber, the home affairs minister, has reduced the backlog of visa applications from around 300,000 to about 100,000. He has announced a new visa for remote workers and a simpler system for skilled migrants that has delighted firms, some of which had stopped bringing in staff because of the Kafkaesque hassle. Other DA ministers are working on sweeping reforms that will expand internet access in poor rural areas and sell off unused state-owned land, among other things.
These early successes have been noticed by South Africans. In the SRF poll 62% of black voters say that the DA is doing well in the GNU, an impressive tally given that the party probably won less than 5% of the black vote at the recent elections. Some ANC bigwigs seem affronted by such good governance, complaining in internal party meetings that they are being made to look bad by the DA.
Mr Ramaphosa is unlikely to be too bothered. His own legacy is dependent on the GNU. He is largely supportive of the reforms that DA ministers are pushing; Operation Vulindlela, an initiative run by the presidency and the finance ministry, had identified visa reform as a priority, for instance. The president’s allies in the cabinet, such as Ksogientsho Ramokgopa, the electricity minister, and Enoch Godongwana, the finance minister, share some of the reformist instincts.
Crucially—and perhaps naively—ANC strategists do not see the DA as a threat to their base. “They’re fishing in different ponds,” says Frans Cronje of the SRF. He describes the GNU as an arrangement between the established middle class and the aspirational middle class: between the mostly DA-voting, white suburbs and the mostly ANC-voting, black areas on urban outskirts. In this logic both parties have strong electoral incentives to make the arrangement work.
Two big challenges loom, however. The first is that there are those within each party that remain sceptical of the GNU. The DA will need to show it is a brake on the ANC’s worst ideas, like the proposal for catastrophically expensive state-run health insurance. Some in the ANC want the GNU to fail because they do not agree with its reforms, fear that it will make it harder to make money from public office—or both. If an anti-GNU candidate replaces Mr Ramaphosa as party leader at the ANC’s elections in 2027, the coalition would crumble.
The second is the sheer scale of South Africa’s problems. At a meeting between Mr Ramaphosa and business leaders last week there was talk of a “stretch goal” of GDP growth of more than 3% per year (it has averaged less than 1% since 2012). But that will require more than small-bore reforms by the odd minister. It needs urgent efforts to overcome the main barriers to growth, including pervasive corruption and crime, unreliable electricity, irregular and frequently contaminated water supplies, and clogged railways and ports that make it hard to get exports out of the country.
The stakes could barely be higher. The GNU has given South Africa another chance to become the prosperous, liberal and united giant that the continent desperately needs. If it fails to seize the opportunity, populist alternatives stand waiting to take advantage of another false dawn.
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