In an interview with Rob Hersov earlier this week I expressed a wish that someone would take the time to draw up a list of promises made by Cyril Ramaphosa’s in his State of the Nation addresses so South Africans could properly assess the latest version. Tribe member Danie Mouton did the hard yards. The full list below leaves no room for doubt. It confirms the short address by ActionSA’s Parliamentary Leader Athol Trollip (see video below), who described Ramaphosa’s SONA earlier this month as “delusional, out of touch and fanciful……..a dystopian disconnection.” Another deranged claim, one on which the potentially ruinous fight with the US is being justified, is that SA is a “moral beacon in geopolitics”. This is critical as Ramaphosa and his acolytes tell us they are prepared to sacrifice SA’s economy on this cross. Specifically the ANC’s relationship with Iran. For any rational mind the disconnection with reality is clear. As Iranian-born and raised SA economic guru Iraj Abedian reminded us this week, Iran is ruled by religious fanatics whose nation’s version of Archbishop Desmond Tutu (Nobel Peace Prize winner Nages Mohammadi) has been in jail since October 2023. Iran also legislates that women are half a person. Pretoria desperately and urgently needs waves of double expressos. Cyril especially. – Alec Hogg.
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“Athol Trollip has some serious words for President Cyril Ramaphosa” – Watch here
From BizNews community member Danie Mouton –
Here is the list of the SONA promises CR made and the analysis of each of the promises.
2018 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Create 100,000 jobs as part of the Jobs Summit Agreement.
- 2018 Status: Job creation remained weak, with the official unemployment rate at 27.1% in Q4 2018.
- 2019 Status: Unemployment worsened to 29.1% by Q4 2019.
- Analysis: The target was not met. Sluggish economic growth, poor business confidence, and declining investment in key sectors like mining and manufacturing contributed. Policy uncertainty, including around land reform, also played a role. [Added detail about policy uncertainty]
- Promise: Achieve 5% GDP growth per year.
- 2018 Status: GDP growth was 0.8%.
- 2019 Status: Growth remained weak at 0.2%.
- Analysis: The economic downturn was driven by a confluence of factors: policy uncertainty (especially regarding mining and land reform), Eskom’s crisis, declining investment, low business confidence, and structural issues like high unemployment and inefficient SOEs. [Expanded on contributing factors]
- Promise: Address the financial and operational difficulties of Eskom.
- 2018 Status: Eskom required R23 billion in government bailouts; load shedding intensified.
- 2019 Status: Load shedding worsened, reaching Stage 6; Eskom’s debt exceeded R450 billion.
- Analysis: Despite bailouts, Eskom’s crisis deepened. Governance issues, corruption, and mismanagement, along with a lack of clear energy policy and investment in new generation capacity, prevented recovery. [Added details about lack of energy policy and new generation capacity]
- Promise: Rescue South African Airways (SAA).
- 2018 Status: SAA required another bailout.
- 2019 Status: SAA entered business rescue.
- Analysis: Bailouts failed to address SAA’s underlying problems: corruption, mismanagement, and a fundamentally flawed business model. The airline became a drain on public resources. [Added detail about the flawed business model]
- Promise: Provide 700,000 hectares of land for redistribution.
- 2018 Status: Slow progress; legal battles over expropriation without compensation.
- 2019 Status: Only 44,000 hectares transferred.
- Analysis: Land reform was hampered by bureaucratic inefficiencies, legal challenges, a lack of political will in some quarters, and insufficient funding and support for new farmers. [Added points about lack of political will and support for new farmers]
- Promise: Provide free Wi-Fi to schools.
- 2018 Status: Limited rollout, mainly in urban areas.
- 2019 Status: Many rural schools still lacked internet access; budget constraints slowed expansion.
- Analysis: The program suffered from poor planning, a lack of infrastructure, and funding shortfalls. This exacerbated the digital divide. [Added points about poor planning and exacerbating the digital divide]
2019 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Create 2 million new jobs for youth over 10 years.
- 2019 Status: Unemployment at 29.1% (Q4 2019), youth unemployment over 55%.
- 2020 Status: Unemployment rose to 30.8% due to COVID-19.
- Analysis: The ambitious target was derailed by economic stagnation, structural issues, and the COVID-19 pandemic. [Clarified that the target was ambitious]
- Promise: Increase GDP growth to over 3%.
- 2019 Status: GDP growth was 0.2%.
- 2020 Status: The economy contracted by 7% due to COVID-19.
- Analysis: Economic policies failed to stimulate growth. Load shedding, corruption, and declining investment were major impediments.
- Promise: Improve Eskom’s reliability and financial stability.
- 2019 Status: Load shedding reached Stage 6; Eskom’s debt surpassed R450 billion.
- 2020 Status: Load shedding continued; further bailouts required.
- Analysis: Eskom’s crisis worsened due to mismanagement, corruption, a lack of maintenance, and the failure to add new generation capacity. [Added point about lack of maintenance]
- Promise: Implement the National Health Insurance (NHI).
- 2019 Status: NHI Bill introduced but faced opposition.
- 2020 Status: COVID-19 exposed healthcare system weaknesses and delayed progress.
- Analysis: NHI implementation was hindered by financial constraints, logistical challenges, and resistance from some stakeholders in the healthcare sector. [Added point about resistance from stakeholders]
- Promise: Speed up land reform and redistribution.
- 2019 Status: Slow progress.
- 2020 Status: COVID-19 further delayed progress.
- Analysis: Land reform continued to be hampered by the same issues as before: bureaucratic inefficiencies, legal hurdles, and insufficient funding.
2020 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Reduce youth unemployment through mass public employment programs.
- 2020 Status: Unemployment at 30.8%.
- 2021 Status: Unemployment rose to 34.9%.
- Analysis: The pandemic exacerbated unemployment, and structural issues continued to hinder job creation. While some temporary jobs were created, they did not address the fundamental problem. [Added the point about temporary jobs]
- Promise: Grow the economy and attract R1.2 trillion in investment.
- 2020 Status: Economy contracted by 7%.
- 2021 Status: GDP grew by 4.9% but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
- Analysis: The investment target was significantly impacted by the global economic downturn, domestic political uncertainty, and the energy crisis.
- Promise: Stabilize Eskom and end load shedding.
- 2020 Status: Load shedding continued.
- 2021 Status: Power outages worsened.
- Analysis: Eskom’s crisis deepened.
- Promise: Implement land expropriation without compensation.
- 2020 Status: Debate continued.
- 2021 Status: The amendment failed in Parliament.
- Analysis: This promise was not fulfilled due to a lack of political consensus and concerns about its economic impact.
2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Create 800,000 jobs through public employment programs.
- 2021 Status: Unemployment at 34.9%.
- 2022 Status: Unemployment worsened to 35.3%.
- Analysis: Public employment programs offered some relief, but they were insufficient to address the scale of unemployment.
- Promise: Roll out COVID-19 vaccines rapidly.
- 2021 Status: Slow start.
- 2022 Status: Over 50% of adults fully vaccinated.
- Analysis: The vaccine rollout improved over time, but initial delays and vaccine hesitancy hampered progress.
- Promise: Address state corruption and implement reforms.
- 2021 Status: Zondo Commission investigations continued.
- 2022 Status: Some prosecutions began, but accountability remained weak.
- Analysis: While the Zondo Commission exposed the extent of state capture, prosecutions and convictions have been slow, and systemic reforms are still needed.
2022 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: End load shedding and implement an energy crisis plan.
- 2022 Status: Load shedding worsened.
- 2023 Status: Load shedding continued, with over 200 days of outages.
- Analysis: The energy crisis deepened significantly, demonstrating a lack of effective planning and implementation.
- Promise: Implement structural economic reforms.
- 2022 Status: Business confidence remained low; investment was weak.
- 2023 Status: Major structural changes were not implemented.
- Analysis: A lack of political
2023 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Increase renewable energy capacity and reduce dependence on Eskom.
- 2023 Status: Private sector involvement increased, but power supply remained unreliable.
- 2024 Status: Renewable energy projects faced bureaucratic delays. [Added this point]
- Analysis: Government policy failed to create an efficient transition away from Eskom.
- Promise: Reduce crime and improve policing.
- 2023 Status: Crime rates remained high, with violent crime worsening.
- 2024 Status: SAPS faced ongoing resource and corruption challenges. [Added this point]
- Analysis: Crime prevention strategies failed to yield results, and public trust in law enforcement remained low.
2024 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
- Promise: Further economic recovery efforts and job creation.
- 2024 Status: Unemployment remained high, with economic growth stagnant.
- 2025 Status: No significant improvement was recorded. [Added this point]
- Analysis: Policy failures, energy crises, and weak governance continued to hinder economic recovery.
- Promise: Expand social relief grants and poverty reduction programs.
- 2024 Status: Social grants were extended, but affordability remained an issue.
- 2025 Status: Government faced fiscal constraints, limiting further expansion. [Added this point]
- Analysis: Social programs provided temporary relief but were not sustainable long-term solutions.
2025 State of the Nation Address (SONA)
Economic Growth and Infrastructure Development:
- Target: Achieve economic growth exceeding 3%.
- Strategy: Implement a second wave of reforms focusing on revitalizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), particularly Eskom and Transnet, and investing in infrastructure projects to stimulate the economy. [Reuters.com]
- Expansion/Amendment: While 3% growth is a desirable target, achieving it will depend heavily on addressing structural issues like the energy crisis, logistics bottlenecks, and crime. The “second wave of reforms” needs to be more clearly defined and implemented effectively, as previous reform efforts have yielded limited results. Investment in infrastructure should be prioritized strategically, focusing on projects with the highest potential for economic impact and job creation. [Added context about challenges and the need for clear definitions]
Energy Security:
- Objective: Ensure lasting and sustainable energy security.
- Approach: Execute the Energy Action Plan and enforce the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act to stabilize the power supply and reduce load shedding. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: The Energy Action Plan needs consistent implementation and should be adapted to changing circumstances. While the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act is a positive step, its effectiveness will depend on streamlining regulatory processes and attracting private investment in renewable energy generation. The long-term solution requires a diversified energy mix, including renewables, and a fundamental restructuring of the electricity market. [Added details about implementation and the need for diversification]
Water Security:
- Goal: Address the looming crisis of water security.
- Plan: Implement measures to safeguard water resources, improve infrastructure, and ensure reliable water supply for all citizens. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: Water security is becoming increasingly critical due to climate change and aging infrastructure. The plan should include strategies for water conservation, efficient water management, and investment in new water sources, such as desalination plants, where appropriate. Addressing water losses due to aging infrastructure is crucial. [Added details about climate change, conservation, and infrastructure]
National Dialogue on Socio-Economic Issues:
- Initiative: Launch a National Dialogue to tackle economic exclusion, social inequality, and societal marginalization.
- Purpose: Provide a platform for comprehensive public participation to develop inclusive solutions to these challenges. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: National dialogues can be valuable, but their success hinges on genuine inclusivity, clear objectives, and a commitment from all stakeholders to implement the outcomes. The dialogue should not become a substitute for decisive action on pressing socio-economic problems. [Added cautionary note about action]
G20 Summit Hosting:
- Event: Host the G20 Summit in Johannesburg in November 2025.
- Focus: Advance the interests of the African continent and the Global South, emphasizing sustainable development, inclusive economic growth, and transformation of international financial institutions. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: Hosting the G20 provides an opportunity for South Africa to showcase its leadership and advocate for reforms in global governance. However, it also presents logistical and security challenges. Success will depend on effective diplomacy and a clear articulation of priorities. [Added details about opportunities and challenges]
Public Service Professionalization:
- Commitment: Build a capable and competent state underpinned by a professional public service.
- Action: Strengthen the role of the Public Service Commission in appointing key government officials to ensure ethical and skilled leadership. [It-online.co.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: Professionalizing the public service requires more than just appointments. It also involves improving training, performance management, and accountability mechanisms. Addressing corruption and patronage within the public sector is essential. [Added details about training and accountability]
Youth Employment and Skills Development:
- Aim: Reduce youth unemployment through targeted programs.
- Method: Expand the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention to create job opportunities and provide skills training for young people. [Stateofthenation.gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: While youth employment programs are important, they need to be linked to long-term economic growth and skills development that meets the demands of the labor market. Focus should be placed on creating sustainable jobs, not just temporary positions. [Added details about long-term growth and sustainable jobs]
Combating Corruption:
- Objective: Intensify efforts against corruption.
- Measure: Implement the recommendations of the State Capture Commission and conduct lifestyle audits for public servants to promote accountability. [Stateofthenation.gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: Implementing the Zondo Commission recommendations is crucial, but it requires political will and resources. Lifestyle audits are a useful tool, but they should be conducted transparently and fairly. Strengthening law enforcement and the judiciary is essential to effectively prosecute and convict those involved in corruption. [Added details about political will and law enforcement]
Community Safety Enhancement:
- Goal: Make communities safer.
- Strategy: Strengthen law enforcement operations, such as Operation Shanela and Operation Vala Umgodi, to combat organized crime, illegal mining, and extortion. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: While law enforcement operations are necessary, a comprehensive approach to community safety also requires addressing the root causes of crime, such as poverty, inequality, and lack of opportunities. Improving police-community relations and investing in social programs are also important. [Added details about addressing root causes and community relations]
Healthcare System Strengthening:
- Plan: Advance the implementation of the National Health Insurance (NHI).
- Action: Finalize the NHI Bill in Parliament to ensure access to quality healthcare services for all South Africans. [Gov.za]
- Expansion/Amendment: Finalizing the NHI Bill is a key step, but successful implementation will depend on addressing the challenges of funding, capacity building, and ensuring quality of care. Strengthening the public health system and addressing shortages of healthcare professionals are also crucial. [Added details about implementation challenges and capacity building]
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