The Economist: Donald Trump starts “immediate” talks with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine

Key topics.Trump initiated peace talks with Putin, excluding Ukraine from discussions.U.S. signaled potential compromises, unsettling Ukraine and European allies.Trump's approach risks normalizing Russia ties without securing concessions..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up for the BizNews channel here..From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com.© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved..The Economist___STEADY_PAYWALL___.A phone call sparks fear and dread in Kyiv and other European capitals.Ever since Donald Trump vowed during his election campaign to end the war in Ukraine quickly, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his European supporters have feared abandonment by America. Their dread grew on February 12th, when Mr Trump spoke by phone with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin, without co-ordinating the details beforehand with Ukraine, and announced that negotiations to end the war would start "immediately". He later said he might meet Mr Putin in person in Saudi Arabia..It was exactly the sort of unilateral American move that, just hours earlier, Mr Zelensky had warned against in an interview with The Economist. "If Russia is left alone with America, Putin with Trump, or their teams, they will receive manipulative information," the Ukrainian president warned. European leaders said they should not be left out and insisted the West should seek to "put Ukraine in a position of strength"..Supporters of Ukraine in the West accused Mr Trump and his entourage of making concessions to Mr Putin without getting anything in return. The Russian stockmarket rose. In global markets the oil price slipped by 3%, reflecting in part an expectation that negotiations could eventually result in the rehabilitation of the Kremlin and the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia's energy industry and wider economy..Mr Trump has met Mr Zelensky twice in recent months—in New York in September and in Paris in December—and the two spoke after the call with Mr Putin. But Ukrainian officials say they were not consulted on the timing or the content of the call—a break with the Biden administration's stated policy of discussing "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" (though contacts between the White House and the Kremlin did take place behind the scenes)..Mr Zelensky nevertheless tried to sound positive after the news broke of the Trump-Putin conversation, posting on X, a social-media platform: "No one wants peace more than Ukraine. Together with the US, we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace. As President Trump said, let's get it done.".Mr Trump had once boasted he could get a deal done in less than 24 hours. That has not happened. But he is nevertheless moving fast, though with little sign of a real plan and much evidence of turmoil in his team..Keith Kellogg, a former three-star general, had been designated as America's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. But it was Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump's golfing buddy and now his Middle East envoy, who flew to Moscow on February 11th to bring home a detained American schoolteacher, Marc Fogel—a goodwill gesture by Mr Putin to prepare for the call with Mr Trump. Neither does General Kellogg figure in the negotiating team announced by Mr Trump: Marco Rubio, the secretary of state; Mike Waltz, the national security adviser; John Ratcliffe, the CIA director; and the trusted Mr Witkoff..Mr Zelensky has sought to position himself as a willing partner for peace, casting Mr Putin as belligerent, determined to press his meat-grinding advance into Ukraine. For a while Mr Trump seemed to share the view, even threatening tariffs and more sanctions against Russia if it refused to negotiate. Those close to his administration whispered that he understood that a deal would require much greater pressure on Mr Putin. Senior aides were sent to Europe to confer with Mr Zelensky and European allies at the Munich Security Conference that is starting on February 14th, and elsewhere..But the president suddenly changed direction. On February 12th he announced on his Truth Social network his "lengthy and highly productive phone call" with the Russian leader. Mr Trump hailed their alliance in the second world war, gushed about the "great benefit" of working with Mr Putin and spoke of "visiting each other's Nations"..Negotiations require direct contacts. But Mr Trump is in effect starting to normalise relations with Russia without obtaining tangible concessions. Indeed, Mr Putin's spokesman said talks had to involve more than the cessation of fighting; it was necessary to "address the root causes of the conflict", which in Kremlin-speak means absorbing Ukraine into a Russian sphere of influence..If anything, it was America that seemed to make the early compromises. Pete Hegseth, the newly installed American defence secretary, said it was "unrealistic" for Ukraine to return to its international borders, given its territorial losses after Russia's intervention in 2014 and its full-scale invasion in 2022..He conceded that "a durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again". But he seemed to stymie such guarantees in advance. He suggested that America would do little to provide them. Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO. Nor would America send forces to Ukraine to secure any peace agreement. Nor would it allow NATO to protect European troops that might be deployed there. Ukraine's security would be the task of European and non-European troops in a "non-NATO mission"..Future support for Ukraine is unclear. Mr Trump seems to be treating a possible agreement on American access to Ukraine's rare-earth minerals as compensation for tens of billions in past American assistance "with little to show". Mr Zelensky has suggested that he might agree to grant such access in return for continued aid, but Mr Trump has not yet accepted that..Michael McFaul, a former American ambassador to Russia, posted on X: "Diplomacy 101: Don't give anything without getting something in return. Don't negotiate in public. Don't negotiate about Ukraine's future without first coordinating your position with Ukrainians.".Mr Trump has long ignored American diplomatic conventions. Despite his unorthodox methods, though, some hope Mr Trump's aides will shift him towards more orthodox policies. Kurt Volker, Mr Trump's former envoy to Ukraine, thinks the president is trying "both to entice Mr Putin with warm talk and show he can put pressure on him". In comments later in the day, Mr Trump seemed to adjust his position. "I'm backing Ukraine," he insisted. He predicted that Ukraine might get some territory back, and said America would continue to support it as long as assistance was "secured"—perhaps a reference to a deal on rare earths. "If we didn't do that then Putin would say he won," added Mr Trump..Even so, the mood among Ukrainian officials has greatly darkened. "I think it will all be decided without Ukraine," says one. "Ukraine is fucked. And so is Europe, by the way.".Read also:.🔒 Trump pressures Putin to end Ukraine war or face sanctions🔒 The Economist: Trump's X-Factor secures Gaza ceasefire after 15 months of Hell🔒 Marc Champion: Trump's Putin-like tactics in global ambitions