The final barrier: Can America finish what Israel began?

Key topics:Israel cripples Iran’s nuclear program - except one key facility.Only US firepower can destroy Fordow’s underground site.Strategic and moral stakes converge in rare alignment..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Kerry Lanaghan.In a recent piece that blends urgency, historical perspective, and strategic analysis, historian Niall Ferguson reflects on the gravity of one of the most consequential decisions any US president can face: whether to intervene militarily in a foreign conflict. As the geopolitical temperature in the Middle East approaches boiling point, Ferguson turns his attention to President Donald Trump, who now finds himself at such a crossroads.The setting is stark. After years of preparation, Israel has acted with remarkable precision, targeting key nodes of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminating several top commanders of the Revolutionary Guard. The operation has been audacious, methodical, and by most measures, successful. Iran’s nuclear programme, once a growing threat, now lies in fragments.But not entirely.Deep beneath the mountains near Qom, inside a fortress known as Fordow, lies the last unbroken pillar of Iran’s enrichment capacity. Heavily shielded under rock and reinforced concrete, Fordow is beyond the reach of Israeli firepower. It is also dangerously close to delivering Iran the capacity to produce weapons-grade uranium in mere weeks.This is the moment, Ferguson writes, when the United States faces a uniquely narrow window - one in which its unmatched military assets could render Fordow unusable. The weapon exists. It’s the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a bunker-buster designed precisely for targets like Fordow. The aircraft exists, too - the stealth B-2 bomber. The question is not whether the US can finish what Israel started. It is whether it will.The arguments against American intervention are well-worn: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. Yet this is not about ground troops, regime change, or an open-ended occupation. Ferguson notes that the choice is highly defined - measured in hours, not years. What’s at stake is not just the fate of a weapons facility, but the strategic balance of an entire region.The moral weight of the moment is also unmistakable. The 7 October attacks, widely believed to be orchestrated by Iran-backed proxies, have stirred old memories - ones Israelis cannot ignore. The phrase “Never again” is not just a slogan but a commitment, etched into the country’s survival instinct. And so the ancient question returns: If not now, when?Yet the story is not only about Israel’s sense of urgency. The broader implications extend to America’s credibility on the global stage. A decisive strike could signal to Iran’s backers - Russia, China - that US deterrence is not a relic of a past century but a living force. It could reset the rules of engagement in a region where proxy wars and grey-zone tactics have become the norm.There are practical considerations, too. With oil markets rattled and shipping lanes under threat, a prolonged conflict raises the spectre of economic fallout. The longer this drags on, the higher the risk of a global energy shock. A swift, surgical operation could do more than cripple a weapons programme - it could stabilise markets and buy time for diplomacy.Still, it would be a bold move. A lonely one, perhaps. The distance is great, but the political cost is uncertain. But America has the means, the opportunity, and arguably, the responsibility. After all, what is the point of possessing unmatched military power if not to prevent the most catastrophic forms of conflict?The decision now rests with one man. The story, as Ferguson frames it, is not over. It hangs in the balance between what has been struck and what remains buried.(This article is a précis of a piece originally published by Substack and can be read in full here.)

The final barrier: Can America finish what Israel began?

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