Gareth van Onselen: Fluid ANC base opens the door for DA, MK, EFF

Key topics:

• ANC support volatile, with 10–15% of voters fluid

• DA shows stable growth, gains from ANC missteps

• MK and EFF steady, benefit from VAT backlash

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By Gareth van Onselen*

On what the polling data says about ANC, DA, MK and EFF support since the 2024 election. There have been 4 substantive political polls since the 2024 election: Two by the SRF, one by SABI and one by the SAIRR. Here is what they found and what I think they say. 

First, some methodological notes. The individual methodologies are all available for each poll (on the relevant website), but broadly, they are similar: registered voters only, nationally representative, and, with the exception of the SAIRR, with a 58% turnout model. 

The fact that the SAIRR did not produce a turnout model is essential. This means baseline support is the only consistent figure we have across all 4 polls. But we can see from the graphs that, generally, the ANC/DA get a 2-5pt bump on lower turnout, MK and EFF largely unaffected. 

Let's start with the ANC. The graph below shows its baseline support and support at 58% for the 4 polls and the period each poll was in the field. As you can see, ANC support is very volatile.

When things are relatively stable (SRF Q4 and SABI Q1), the ANC has a baseline of around 40% and a 58% turnout of 43%-45%. When things are unstable (February/SRF Q1 and budget/VAT/SAIRR), it drops dramatically to 30%.

Thus, while the ANC probably has a pool of potential of between 40% and 45%, there are 10% - 15% of ANC voters who are very unhappy with the party and willing to shift away when things get difficult (either to become undecided - SRF Q1 - or to DA/MK/EFF - SAIRR Q1) 

This, in turn, is unprecedented for the ANC. In the big picture, it has lost a lot of support over 15 years and is down to its core, die-hard supporters. That even a chunk of those ANC voters are now fluid speaks to a party in dire straights.

The polls suggest that when things are calm, the GNU is functioning, and there are no crises, the ANC can consolidate unhappy voters back into the fold, but the minute things unravel (controversial legislation, GNU relations, VAT), those voters shift.

The DA. Its support is far more stable than the ANC's, and it is encouraging for the party, with clear growth potential. The IRR numbers, the most recent, demonstrate that every party that opposed the VAT increase - DA/MK/EFF - grew at the expense of the ANC. 

The DA's stability is likely linked to how it is fundamentally perceived, particularly by its voters, as a stabilising force, making the GNU credible and keeping the ANC in check. Its baseline number in the IRR survey is remarkable, 30%. 

But the DA has a long history of doing incredibly well between elections and then tapering off in actual election campaigning begins. We also don't know what happens to that number at a lower turnout. Suffice it to say, it, like MK/EFF, can benefit when ANC bleeds. 

MK. Not much to see here. It's mostly down from 2024 and fairly consistent. There is no real benefit at the lower turnout. However, the VAT spike - back up to its 2024 number of 15% (baseline) - is interesting. Again, we need a lower turnout to see what happens to that number.

EFF, similar to MK. There's not much to see outside of the VAT spike. Generally down, but it doesn't seem capable, as things stand, of dropping below 6%. Like MK and the DA, it needs a way to capitalise long-term and hold those 10-15% fluid ANC voters.

In summary, the ANC base is cracked. It has the potential for 40%-45%; to do that, it needs to secure 10-15% of its voters who are very shaky. DA/MK/EFF are all somewhat solid/up/down a bit. In the opposite direction, they have the potential to win over long-term fluid ANC voters but need to work out how. 

Finally, it is very hard to say to what degree GNU influences support outside, perhaps the DA. Current affairs are tumultuous and fraught, with so many profound issues playing out, all impacting to one degree or another, including GNU. As ever, I need more time and polls :)

(This article is from an X thread originally posted by Gareth van Onselen which can be read in full here.)