Chuck Stephens: The golden handshake, the ripple effect and the run-down countries

Donald Trump's self-proclaimed "golden age" promises ripple effects far beyond America. From geopolitical shifts to cultural revivals, his influence seems poised to upend global dynamics. As leaders gather at Mar-a-Lago, even tech moguls and Canadian officials take note. Europe inches toward conservatism, the Middle East reconsiders alliances, and Africa faces a "youthquake" of challenges. Whether golden boy or polarizing figure, Trump's return reshapes the world order—ushering in both hope and uncertainty..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..By Chuck Stephens*.The term "golden handshake" takes on a whole new meaning as tech barons and Canadian cabinet ministers hike to Mar-a-Lago to meet the President-in-waiting. Or should I say the President-elect, because he's not very good at waiting..He is now America's quintessential "golden-haired boy". In The Tale of the Lad with Golden Locks, the king's new queen gives birth to a boy with golden hair. The queen's sisters bribe the king's stablemaster to drown the child, but he spares his life and hides him in a cave. Not to be confused with Goldilocks or with "Prinz Rosszwifl." It remains to be seen if Donald Trump will live happily ever after..Even Bill Gates wants to get that golden handshake. Elon Musk is ubiquitous in the entourage. The "great one" Wayne Gretsky paid his respects and Trump suggested that he run for Governor of Canada. He didn't mean for Governor-General although that would suit Gretsky. Trump is trying to tarnish the image of Justin Trudeau, in his trolling mode. Like buying Greenland or reclaiming the Panama Canal..Trump claims to be ushering in America's golden age. Certainly he has run the proverbial gauntlet and came out the back-end still standing. The term "golden-haired boy" is associated with popularity and success..You can already feel the ripple-effect of this America First euphoria – all around the world. Disney is toning down its woke movies, which have been a financial disaster. A new non-woke studio has been opened in Hollywood by Mel Gibson, and Harrison Ford just joined. Stallone may yet bring us Rocky VI, or maybe he could convince Mike Tyson to do another benefit fight?! Trump loves boxing..Europe is getting rippled. Germany's government collapsed and the centre-right is expected to win the snap election in February 2025. A sluggish economy and excessive immigration are the all-to-familiar issues. Ditto that in the UK, where the Reform Party has passed the historic Conservative Party for the number of members. The bookies say that Nigel Farage is the odds-on favorite to be the next Prime Minister. As was the case with the American bookies – who favoured Trump throughout, in spite of the silly pollsters and the legacy media..The Middle East is getting rippled. Assad has fallen in Syria and the rebel leader is masquerading as a moderate who will protect religious and ethnic minorities. The problem is he owes too much to Turkey which wistfully recalls the days of Ottoman Empire. The Turks want to shrink the Kurds in this century the way they shrank Armenia in the last century. It looks like Israel will hook up with the Kurds? Kurdish control of Syria east of the Euphrates will assure that Iran's supply chain to Hezbollah in Lebanon is permanently disrupted. There is symbiosis in that partnership..Moderate Muslim nations will gravitate towards the Abraham Accords, which Trump is sure to dust off and re-launch. Promoting peace and prosperity for the region instead of Iran-fuelled proxy wars all around Israel..The ripple effect is sure to be felt in the Ukraine as well. Trump says that too many people have died. It sounds like a Bob Dylan song. But peace is blowin' in the winter wind. On one day last week, two thousand Russian fighters were killed – the high water mark of the war so far. Putin cannot sustain it for much longer and will settle for "battlefield borders" as long as he gets his proviso of no NATO expansion into the Ukraine..But what about the so-called "shithole countries" in Latin America and Africa?.When South Africa's ambassador to the USA says that SA will tone down its anti-Israel rhetoric, does he have any premonition of how many South Africans may be forcibly repatriated? For the border invasion was not composed of just Mexicans. Mexico issued transit visas to people from all over the world to walk north and swim across the Rio Grande River into the USA..What will the impact be on these "returnados"? I can remember Portugal when it had a population of 9 million having to receive over 1 million "returnados" from its "overseas provinces". I can remember 3 million Mozambican refugees in neighbouring countries (over 1 million in Malawi alone) returning home after three consecutive wars there (1. its own liberation struggle, 2. Mugabe's fighters defending against intrusions by Ian Smith's regime, 3. The anti-communist revolt of Renamo contras)..Are we ready for this surge of returnees?.And those repatriated to other African countries will find the gateway to Europe closing, so they will naturally descend on South Africa..Italy has adopted a policy of trying to invest more in Africa to remedy the causes of the Exodus. It's too little, too late. For Houston, we have a problem. It's called a "youthquake". Such a high percentage (about 60%) of Africa's population is under 25 years of age. Youth unemployment is rife and can only be solved by an "Africa First" policy..And what of Africa's inclination towards corruption and stolen elections? Ask Venancio Mondlane. Ask Jonas Savimbi. Ask Joshua Nkomo..Perhaps it is a relief to some that Trump will be focusing on America First, with less intrusion into other hemispheres? When Assad fell, he said, let the Syrians figure it out. It's their country, so it's not our problem. He regards the war in the Ukraine as a border dispute, not a strategic pathway for Russia to invade other parts of Europe..Now South Africa gets to host the G20 meeting in 2025. Will Donald Trump even attend? Not that long ago, Ramaphosa was hosting a BRICS summit and welcoming into membership the likes of Iran. Maybe that expansion of BRICS will boomerang on him? For he also recruited Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and UAE, all of whom could conceivably be enticed by Trump to join the Abraham Accords..BRICS has said that it wants to topple the US dollar. Even though 11 other countries on Earth use it as their state currency. The ripple effect is bringing us Populism, a new and different kind of Democracy. The old guard of socialist liberation movements is losing its grip. But as those parties still cling to power, are they helping or hindering Africa? If indeed there comes a golden age in America, it will cause many African countries to sweep house. Away with the old guard and power to the Populists..Read also:.Solly Moeng – Ethnic & racial identities form South Africa's faultline🔒 FT's man of the year – Donald Trump🔒 Looming Trump presidency and growth concerns add South Africa's Policy Uncertainty.*Chuck Stephens: Desmond Tutu Centre for Leadership

Chuck Stephens: The golden handshake, the ripple effect and the run-down countries

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