I’ve been reflecting ahead of today’s webinar at noon updating the BizNews Share portfolio. Given the portfolio’s exceptional performance over the past six and a bit years (30%pa compound), there’s a natural temptation to lock in profits.
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Also, there is little doubt global share markets are toppy, especially in the US which sets the global trend. Particulary concerning is how “dumb money” is flooding in with retail investors swarming into high beta stocks, many punting on margin. When small players regard themselves as bullet-proof, markets are very definitely into the final stage of the Bull Run.
Plus, as this newsletter reported last week, the share market valuation index made famous by Warren Buffett (above) – US market cap as a % of GDP – which is at unprecendented levels. It now surpasses the peaks of pre-Crash bubbles in 1987 and 1999. Although operations of digital businesses will continue to benefit from seismic economic shifts, their valuations are also stretched.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___
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These signals notwithstanding, there will be no profit taking at today’s webinar. For the simple reason that the most important signal of all has not yet been given. History tells us share markets only peak after interest rates begin to rise. With governments creating money at an unprecedented rate, tighter rates could be some way off.
If you haven’t signed up yet for the webinars I’m hosting during the next couple of days, here are the links…
- Today – Exclusively for Premium subscribers – the monthly update on the Biznews Share portfolio, join me at noon: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/3785234117773097230
- Tomorrow: Our special Budget Day webinar at 7pm courtesy of sponsorship by our long-time business partner BrightRock. Register here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8210522129607976203
And for your listening pleasure…
Today’s fresh audio on BizNews Radio.…..(click on the link to access)
- Peter Major on “ferocious” commodities Bull Run; gold, platinum.
- Sasol CFO: Goal is to pay divis to shareholders, not ask for capital
- Global Market Snapshot: Boeing grounds 777s; US small caps soar
- FB: Economists warn Tito will disappoint; EOH CEO takes big bonus
- Carrie’s Corner: Rupert’s winemaker explains his passion for SA wine
- How solar sails are taking space exploration to edge of our solar system
