By Kati Pohjanpalo, Niclas Rolander and Leo Laikola
Despite their orientation toward the US and western Europe, Finland and Sweden since the Cold War had bet that their national security was best protected by staying out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They aimed to avoid disturbing the military balance in the Baltic Sea region and provoking Russia. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its demands to stop NATO expansion pushed both countries to seek entry into the alliance.
1. Why didn’t Finland and Sweden join NATO earlier?
___STEADY_PAYWALL___Both countries conduct military exercises with NATO and share intelligence. They are part of the alliance’s Partnership for Peace program, which fosters cooperation, and, along with Ukraine, are among six so-called Enhanced Opportunity Partners that make “particularly significant contributions to NATO operations.” But they didn’t join the alliance earlier for historical reasons:
- Finland has spent the 105 years since its independence tiptoeing alongside Russia, with which it has roughly 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) of border. Two wars against the Soviet Union between 1939 and 1944 were followed by a policy of deference and self-censorship toward the Soviets that came to be known as Finlandization. After the Cold War ended, Finland began turning more toward the democracies of western Europe, joining the European Union and adopting the euro. But the Finns held on to the cornerstone of their foreign policy: maintaining good relations with Russia. The ghost of Finlandization lingered and and popular opinion was firmly against joining — until last year.
- Sweden stayed out of both world wars and, during the Cold War, neutrality was seen as the best way of ensuring its independence. Still, Sweden’s defense was designed to deter a Soviet invasion, and the country covertly cooperated with NATO. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Sweden’s policy was rebranded as military non-alignment, and its defense was significantly scaled down. But since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, Sweden has gradually ramped up military spending and sought closer cooperation with NATO.
2. What’s the benefit for NATO?
Having Finland and Sweden in the alliance would arguably make it easier to stabilize the security of the area around the Baltic Sea and to defend NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The three small Baltic countries are often seen as a potential target for Russian aggression because they have substantial ethnic Russian minorities, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has used protecting such groups as a pretext for interventions abroad. Finland and Sweden have sophisticated, well-equipped militaries with gear that’s already compatible with that used by the alliance. Finland’s long border with Russia should enable the alliance to improve its surveillance of the giant neighbor to the east.Â
3. What’s required to join NATO?
The criteria include a functioning democracy based on a market economy, fair treatment of minority populations, a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully, and a willingness and ability to make a military contribution to NATO operations. Sweden and Finland are among the world’s most developed nations with stable democracies and highly trusted political institutions. It’s not a requirement that citizens bless a move to join, but favorable public opinion lends legitimacy to a country’s bid for membership. It also must be ratified by all existing members. Finland was approved relatively quickly and it joined on April 4, while Sweden’s bid was being held up by Turkey and Hungary for domestic political reasons.
4. How has Russia responded to the idea?
Russia has warned of “serious military and political consequences” that would require Russia to respond. In April, it said it would deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea region if the two joined. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda dismissed the threat as “empty,” accusing Russia of already placing tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, its exclave on the Baltic. Before the Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, Russia had warned them of serious consequences, but that hasn’t materialized. On the other hand, Montenegro in 2016 said it had foiled a Russia-backed plan to assassinate then-premier Milo Djukanovic over the country’s plans to enter NATO, which happened a year later. A court in 2019 sentenced 14 people, including opposition leaders and Russian and Serbian nationals, to as many as 15 years in jail over the failed plot, though an appeals court annulled the verdicts. Finns expect to face more spying, cyberattacks, airspace breaches and influence operations by Russia.Â
5. How is this changing Finland and Sweden?
They are increasing military cooperation bilaterally and with other nations, work that began to accelerate in the run-up to the war in Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has promised to deepen cooperation with both countries. NATO’s pledge of collective defense only applies to members, but the US last year made security assurances to both applicants if threatened by Russia. They’ve also signed security cooperation agreements with the UK. They both intend to continue ramping up defense spending, with Sweden’s long-term plan increasing funding for the armed forces by almost 30% from 2021 to 2024.
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